Twins Daily Draft Preview: Mock Draft v. 3.0

The projections on Hudson vary prett wildly. I guess that is why he may be available at 15. I would not hate the pick, especially if he signed for a little less and we were able to pay up with our next pick.

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2016/05/draft-preview-rhp-dakota-hudson-mississippi-state-university/

If Groome is available at #15, I'd like the Twins to think about taking him. Heck, if the Twins' BPA is on the board at #15 I'd take him, sign-ability be damned.

 

The Twins aren't totally cap-strapped and can create some flexibility, with over $8M to spend. With the success rate of guys picked after round 10, they can draft 30 college seniors and offer 5K to all of them for all I care.

 

Even if they can't get a deal done, they'll have a top 3 pick next year and #16, then they can pull all the shenanigans the Padres, Braves and Phillies are pulling this year. If the Twins had #1 and #16 next year, they could likely get two top 10 guys; I would be more excited about that than whomever they would have otherwise gotten to sign at #16 this year.

I posted this to the wrong draft thread initially. But the same thoughts as you:

If Groome is a 1-1 talent in this draft, I would completely punt on my second round pick and take him at 15. They could draft me and pay me $20k.

Look at this list of second round picks. If you want to find a player with a career WAR over 21 you need to go back 33 years to Frank Viola. Chargois is a hot prospect and you have some decent role players here. But if you did a study to weigh the value of 1-1 versus 15 and 56 I am guessing 1-1 comes out by a wide margin, even if you start with the premise that this is not an Alex Rodriguez, Bryce Harper type 1-1 year. If you start at 2009 and go back, you have 50 second round picks. 42 of the 50 (84%) have a career WAR of less than five.

To be quite honest, I would rather see the Twins try something like this and fail than not to try at all.

http://www.baseball-...pe=franch_round

I'd be surprised if Groome is even on the Twins board. I just posted on the other thread that along with a high price tag, he also has "off field" issues. I couldn't get anything more specific than that. This was from the same person that told me a could weeks ago that Groome was going to slide.

Not even remotely surprising. Meanwhile the Nats come away with a 1-1 talent at 28, just like they did at 16 with Lucas Giolito in 2012.

The only thing I can remember us doing under the slotting rules is go above slot with Gonsalves, who also had "character issues" and/or mystery around why he was sliding. By any account that worked out great for us. Not sure why we would not try more of it.

Rumor has it he's asking for top 3 pick money so something close to ~7M if it's true

The number I hear is $4m, which we could probably meet if we were creative. Most 17 year olds are not going to say no to $4m, IMO. Nobody in the second round or late in the first have a shot at $7M.

If our choices are 1-1 talent and punt on the second pick, or toolsy HS corner OF who will take 5-6 years to get here and likely will never hit for power....seems like an easy choice.

I'd be surprised if Groome is even on the Twins board. I just posted on the other thread that along with a high price tag, he also has "off field" issues. I couldn't get anything more specific than that. This was from the same person that told me a could weeks ago that Groome was going to slide.

Off the field issues don't worry me too much in a teenager. At least not enough to pass on that kind of value. Plenty of time to grow up. Unless he's committing felonies of course. I do agree that it would likely bother the Twin's as they are pretty conservative.

Gutsy Mock draft on your part. Picking all those guys to fall out of the first 20 picks. Remind me to come back and give you some credit after the draft if you're close.

If Groome is available at #15, I'd like the Twins to think about taking him. Heck, if the Twins' BPA is on the board at #15 I'd take him, sign-ability be damned.

 

The Twins aren't totally cap-strapped and can create some flexibility, with over $8M to spend. With the success rate of guys picked after round 10, they can draft 30 college seniors and offer 5K to all of them for all I care.

 

The $8 million is only for rounds 1-10, punting on every pick after round 10 wouldn't help them sign Groome.  

I'm guessing they'd have to go underslot in Round 2, and at least with one of the supplemental picks (not that I'm against going this route, just pointing it out)

Just about every player who had makeup issues has been a disaster for the drafting team. Bubba Starlin, Donovan Tate, Tim Beckham, Matt Bush, Delmon Young, Josh Hamilton.... The only big time bust (non injury related) who didn't have makeup issues in high school was Josh Vitters.

Josh Hamilton had makeup issues pre-draft? You'll have to refresh me on those, because pretty much every team thought he was the perfect prospect. 

Tim Beckham pre-draft scouting report:  "His makeup is a plus, as he displays an enjoyment of the game and energy on the field" - Baseball America

Donovan Tate http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=852

Frankly, I can't see 1 inkling of make-up questions for any one of these guys except Matt Bush leading up to their draft.  This seems like odd revisionist history

I could be wrong but I thought there were rumors of him drinking a bit too much in high school.  

Mobley, Hamilton's 12th grade English teacher, will never forget the day that Hamilton cut class. It was during his senior year and Mobley couldn't ever remember Hamilton cutting class before. In fact, he was paranoid about getting into trouble. Hamilton was Yessir and No, ma'am. He didn't smoke or drink alcohol. He was the kid who would give his grandmother a peck on the cheek before every game. The kid who chose not to go to his senior prom because it might put him in a compromising situation. But this day was different.

"One afternoon a female student of mine was having a personal need emergency," Mobley begins. "There was an item that a woman would need and she didn't have it and couldn't get it. It was very obvious that she needed to go home and change clothes, but for some reason she could not reach her family. Then she ran into Josh. As soon as Josh saw her, he didn't hesitate. He drove her home. He cut two classes and that was not a good thing for Josh to be doing. When he got back to school, he was called into the office and our principal Walt Sherlin asked him, 'Why did you leave school without permission to take this young lady home?'

"Well," Hamilton said, "she asked me."

Yes, but many times teams save some of their cap to overpay HS kids in the later rounds to try to keep them from going to college.

Gotcha, I thought you were referencing saving money to sign Groome in Round 1

Just about every player who had makeup issues has been a disaster for the drafting team. Bubba Starlin, Donovan Tate, Tim Beckham, Matt Bush, Delmon Young, Josh Hamilton.... The only big time bust (non injury related) who didn't have makeup issues in high school was Josh Vitters.

All of those guys were top five picks. We're picking 15th, so it's not really comparable. Players bust all the time in MLB. Some players lose their careers because they eat too much. Should you pass on elite talents that like food?

i will be the first to admit this but I don't follow the draft as much as a lot of others on here.  I am not blown away by anyone in this draft.  I say take your highest rated player available at 15, signablity be damned.

Callis and Mayo have Kiriloff. Yippee.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/182933128/opening-round-picks-in-2016-mlb-mock-draft?topicid=167757330