Twins Daily Draft Preview: Elijah Green

Appears to be a great prospect.  If he is available at 8, hurrah!

It’s really hard to guess who will be there when the Twins pick. It seems like the only two who will not be there are Jones and Holliday. 
 

At this moment, Green is the one I hope falls to the Twins but there are about 3-4 guys I’d be happy with. 

I generally don't like taking guys with subpar bats in the 1st round.  Keoni Cavaco should be a cautionary tale and there are many others out there as well  In the first round the hit tool is the most important tool IMO.  That being said we have also seen first hand what elite centerfield defense can do for a major league team with Buxton out there even when he had a subpar bat his defensive WAR made him valuable.  Green is Buxton V2.00.  There is a lot of swing and miss but he does have time to get there.  If the Twins do make that pick let's just hope he turns out better than Corey Ray did for the Brewers.

If there is a player that could and most likely would fall it is Green because teams won't want to possibly come away with nothing picking that high in the draft.  Still he has elite tools in every other category so I guess it just depends on how you feel the bat will develop because if it does develop you likely have a long time All Star on your team.  It is a big gamble though so will be interesting to see if he goes top 7 or if he is the one to fall. 

Take Green period. Have studied him for along time. Has skill set to make it to majors in 2 to 3 years. Which means we will get him at base salary for a few years . Also could be used next to Buxton. Big possible saving for the team if Kepler was traded by then. Kepler will probably be getting 10+ million by then.

Feel like I'm in the minority here, but give me a great hitter who lacks a defensive home Vs. a guy with "all the tools"  except being able to make contact with advanced pitching.

I'd take Berry over Green.

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This is where I'm at with things as well. I think he's the most unpredictable guy because he likely has the highest ceiling in the draft, but also the lowest floor in the top 7. If he's the one guy from the top 7 who falls I take him and hope his worst case is the Buxton we currently have, but with defense in CF everyday instead of every couple days. Gold Glove in CF, .215 BA, and 35+ bombs a year is a really useful player.

You acknowledge he has the lowest floor of the top 7 and yet hope his worst case scenario is a Platinum Glove Winning, 35 homer hitting, 4 WAR all-star CF?  Ok. 

4 minutes ago, Bctwinsfan said:

You acknowledge he has the lowest floor of the top 7 and yet hope his worst case scenario is a Platinum Glove Winning, 35 homer hitting, 4 WAR all-star CF?  Ok. 

I think he is saying a Sano type bat which is a lot of K's, low batting average but a good number of Homers as well so hopefully around a 750 to 800 OPS even with the low batting average.  Most everyone has him pegged as elite defense and if the other team does decide to walk him probably an automatic double. If he can do that it is still a good pick at 8.

If you don't like the Sano like offensive profile Green might not be the guy you want.  Still that offensive profile with elite defense could be very useful and if he did happen to figure it out on offense then as others have stated he has the highest ceiling in the class.   

The other side of that though is he also has the lowest floor.  If there is too much swing and miss he could be Corey Ray or Keon Broxton.  If he can't hit at all that will be a problem and that is why he might fall to 8. No one knows for sure how he will develop but the odds are worse that things improve with his current hit tool profile IMO. The guys ahead of him are more sure things with the bat and that should allow them to move faster through the system and less likely to be a complete bust.

I think he falls somewhere in between his floor and Ceiling so feel that chpettit19 probably isn't that far off.  He will always have his elite defense to build WAR he just has to have some offensive value to be valuable.

21 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

While Green is a top-five talent, there’s certainly risk involved. The Marlins, thought to be a logical landing spot for him at five, have apparently ‘soured on Green’ according to Keith Law

Any idea what the Marlins have soured on him.  It would be interesting to know if it is unique to their team makeup and whether their reason would also apply to the Twins.

41 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think he is saying a Sano type bat which is a lot of K's, low batting average but a good number of Homers as well so hopefully around a 750 to 800 OPS even with the low batting average.  Most everyone has him pegged as elite defense and if the other team does decide to walk him probably an automatic double. If he can do that it is still a good pick at 8.

If you don't like the Sano like offensive profile Green might not be the guy you want.  Still that offensive profile with elite defense could be very useful and if he did happen to figure it out on offense then as others have stated he has the highest ceiling in the class.   

The other side of that though is he also has the lowest floor.  If there is too much swing and miss he could be Corey Ray or Keon Broxton.  If he can't hit at all that will be a problem and that is why he might fall to 8. No one knows for sure how he will develop but the odds are worse that things improve with his current hit tool profile IMO. The guys ahead of him are more sure things with the bat and that should allow them to move faster through the system and less likely to be a complete bust.

I think he falls somewhere in between his floor and Ceiling so feel that chpettit19 probably isn't that far off.  He will always have his elite defense to build WAR he just has to have some offensive value to be valuable.

I'm just very leery of people who's worst tool is contact.  Hopefully this is the last time we are picking in the top 10 in awhile so i get trying to go highest upside possible, I'm just really concerned about Green's bust potential.