Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #5 Edouard Julien, 2B

It sure would be nice if he could be "solid" at a position other than 1st base (or DH.)  The Twins (and most teams) have many players who can fill these two positions adequately.   Combining his bat with a different 'skill' position..... is where championship teams are made!

Great talent.  I think the bat is so good that they will find a place for him sometime this summer or next year.  I sometimes think that moving guys around the diamond in situations like this may not be the answer.  It may work for players who are blessed with great athletic skills--like Lewis--but I question if it helps players who are not quite so naturally gifted athletically.  Maybe it would be better to give him a primary position and work his tail off at that position to make him better ala Corey Koskie.  Part of improving defensive play is giving a player enough reps at a position to generate some confidence, and give him a "feel" for the position.  In any event, the bat will carry him one way or the other.

Julien is not especially young for a prospect. I don't think he'll win a spot at 2B long-term for this team with all the other infielders in the system but it might make him the best trade bait to keep playing him there.

I hope they have some good decisions to make next offseason about where to put Lewis, Julien, Martin, Miranda and Kirilloff to get them all in the lineup.

Right now he is DH - and if we put him there the team would have the on base hitter that Arraez was.  I would love to see him get to be a decent fielder some place, but at this age and stage that does not seem likely.   His bat just has so much promise, but he could also be a trade bait like Steer and Encarnation-Strand.  

I get we do not like to have young guys slotted into DH.  However, if he is elite on offense, and sub par on defense, I see no reason to slot him there.  I mean why drag down our defense simple to say he has a defensive position.  Being there is DH across the league finally, why not?  We are not hurting his overall value, if he is never going to be even an average defender.  Let him do what he does best.  

Personally, I hope he forces his way into the lineup as minimum at DH.  Unless we need to us Buck there half the time like last year, hopefully we do not need that, then let the kid hit.  

If you compare Julien's numbers at AA with Arraez, there really is no comparison - Julien's power and speed are far more impactful. Yes, he's older than Arraez was at AA, but if he hits anywhere near that at AAA, the Twins will find a place for him, and a DH who hits for average, power, and can steal bases is far better than anybody else they will trot out there.

I wonder if any of the players who are blocked by Correa, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Kirilloff, Polanco, Julien, Sosa...could learn to catch in a year of intense training or would it be better to trade one of them for an already good catcher? As someone on TD pointed out to me recently, the Twins seem to be set at catcher for the next 3 years, and I agree.  I am obsessed with the Twins getting a catcher. I think having Joe Mauer at catcher for as long as we did, spoiled me. 

38 minutes ago, RJA said:

Great talent.  I think the bat is so good that they will find a place for him sometime this summer or next year.  I sometimes think that moving guys around the diamond in situations like this may not be the answer.  It may work for players who are blessed with great athletic skills--like Lewis--but I question if it helps players who are not quite so naturally gifted athletically.  Maybe it would be better to give him a primary position and work his tail off at that position to make him better ala Corey Koskie.  Part of improving defensive play is giving a player enough reps at a position to generate some confidence, and give him a "feel" for the position.  In any event, the bat will carry him one way or the other.

RJA beat me to it.  Your doing a guy like this a disservice to play him 40 games at 2nd, 40 at short, 40 at 3rd, and 40 in LF.  Give him ONE position and let him hone his skills.

It is all about the bat for Jullien.  Defense is never going to be plus it doesn't look like.  He is an interesting bat and I can't say I have seen a player quite like him before.  He walks (20%) Almost as much and he K's (25%).  He hits for Average (.300) with incredibly high and usually unsustainably high BABIP's (.393) and yet he slugs around .490.  It is an unconventional approach if you ask me and yet level after level he appears to be sustaining it.

I have my doubts he can continue to be "that" good but it certainly seems like his eye at the plate is going to lift all stats so to speak.  He has been incrediably consistent with his offensive approach so far and it will be interesting to see how it plays out at AAA and likley MLB.  I hope he can keep this up and become an elite bat for the Twins but these last two levels are tough.  Hopefully his approach wins out.

17 minutes ago, silverslugger said:

RJA beat me to it.  Your doing a guy like this a disservice to play him 40 games at 2nd, 40 at short, 40 at 3rd, and 40 in LF.  Give him ONE position and let him hone his skills.

Counterpoint - he's probably never going to be able to win a spot at 2B, 3B or LF as an everyday player but moving him around lets you get his bat in the lineup.

Ok, let’s begin by figuring out where he’s not going to be a full-time starter in 2024 (when he really needs/deserves to be).

Scenario #1: SS (Correa), 3B (Lee/Lewis), 2B (Lee/Lewis), CF (Buxton), C (Vasquez/Jeffers). That leaves 1B (Miranda) and corner OF (Gordon or Larnach in LF, Kiriloff in RF, Martin and Wallner as backups). In this scenario, Julien and Miranda split primary reps at 1B and DH - both are in the lineup essentially every day.

Scenario #2: SS (Correa), 3B (Miranda), 2B (Lee), CF (Buxton), LF/RF (Lewis), C (Vasquez/Jeffers). That leaves 1B (Kiriloff), LF/RF (Larnach/Gordon and backups Martin and Wallner). In this scenario Julien and Kiriloff primarily split 1B and DH and both are in the lineup essentially every day.

So by process of elimination, Julien is not going to be our starting 2B. 1B and DH (with possibly LF) seem like the most likely spots for an essentially every day type role - which, with a bat like that, he needs to have starting next season at the latest.

I am on the give him a position and let him get comfortable bandwagon.  LF or 1B is probably it.  
 

If I was the Twins Larnach would be on the trade block and Julian would be n Lf full time at St. Paul.

He should focus on 1b where he has the best chance to succeed and he competes less at 2b/3b/ss with the guys that have a far better chance of succeeding there.  If you give him a few reps in LF too it would be fine. He's going to hit so he just needs a place to stand in the other half of the inning. 

1 hour ago, silverslugger said:

RJA beat me to it.  Your doing a guy like this a disservice to play him 40 games at 2nd, 40 at short, 40 at 3rd, and 40 in LF.  Give him ONE position and let him hone his skills.

The Twins moved him around a lot in 21, trying to find a home for him. Last Year he was at 2nd base exclusively, except for a few games as the DH.  Looks like they have decided 2nd is his home and are going to leave him there.

He's a really interesting player. His best position is "hitter", but you can almost always find room on the roster for someone who has those kind of skills at the plate, assuming he continues to hit like this. The eye at the plate is interesting, because you would normally expect that ability to generate walks to slide back a little as he advanced in level once he started facing pitchers with better control, but that's never happened to him.

the one hiccup he had was in the half-season at high A where he wasn't getting hits, and that's probably where some evaluators are seeing some concern: if he doesn't get the hits and punish the ball when he does swing at it, then how much upside does he have when he's facing guys who aren't giving away ABs because they can't find the zone? but with Julien, the slugging has always been there; the .456 SLG in low A probably has more to do with it being the FSL than any flaw in his approach, especially since he was chasing .500 again when he moved up to cedar rapids. He mashed again in AA, and the .490 SLG plays just fine. he nuked the AFL in that short stint.

The lack of a great defensive home is a bit of an issue, but his eye at the plate is pretty fantastic, especially at his stage of development. He doesn't have great speed, but does appear to be a quality baserunner; considering how often he gets on base, if he can swipe 10-15 bags a season through good jumps and smart choices at a good clip, then that's real value. (He's a career 77% base-stealer in the minors; if that can stay above 70% than it really does add to his value) I think he's probably going to be a 1B/DH guy who can fill in at a couple of other spots...but you don't really want him there regularly. But a .400 OBP and .450-.500 SLG plays anywhere. (his lack of defensive acumen at 2B/3B is less worrisome with Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis coming through, along with Miranda & Correa already on the roster and oh yeah let's not forget Polanco)

he should be a very fun watch in Saint Paul, and I expect to see him him at Target Field sometime this year. 

Think Kyle Schwarber with less power but better  K rates and more speed that hits for a higher average. Julien is a wild card. It is a big jump from AA to MLB, yet special bats have proven to make that jump many times. Whenever I have watched Julien, he seems to control most at bats. He drives the ball with authority to all fields which is why he has a high BABIP. Julien was called out on strikes on numerous occasions, that I saw, where the pitch was clearly outside of the strike zone. The umpires are better at the MLB level, which I see as a distinct advantage for Julien. There is a concern with his splits, but his left handed bat hammers right handed pitching. By the end of March the Twins should have had ample opportunity to evaluate how Julien would fare versus MLB pitchers or whether he needs to further prove himself at AAA. If Julien shows a bat that plays I want him in Kansas City leading off to open the season. 

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I wonder if any of the players who are blocked by Correa, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Kirilloff, Polanco, Julien, Sosa...could learn to catch in a year of intense training or would it be better to trade one of them for an already good catcher?

When I was a young Twins fan I asked the same about Harmon Killebrew. Bad outfielder, bad 3B, OK 1B.  Why not catcher. Then it was explained to me that catcher was the most challenging defensive position on the field which also wore the individual down and diminished their offensive skills. Glad Harmon didn’t listen. 

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Julien is not especially young for a prospect. I don't think he'll win a spot at 2B long-term for this team with all the other infielders in the system but it might make him the best trade bait to keep playing him there.

I hope they have some good decisions to make next offseason about where to put Lewis, Julien, Martin, Miranda and Kirilloff to get them all in the lineup.

If he makes a name for himself this year, he would be 24 heading into next year.  Plenty young to have a 10 year career, assuming he stays healthy and his bat travels. Not saying he will be a future All Star, but he has the ability to carve out a nice career 

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Think Kyle Schwarber with less power but better  K rates and more speed that hits for a higher average. Julien is a wild card. It is a big jump from AA to MLB, yet special bats have proven to make that jump many times. Whenever I have watched Julien, he seems to control most at bats. He drives the ball with authority to all fields which is why he has a high BABIP. Julien was called out on strikes on numerous occasions, that I saw, where the pitch was clearly outside of the strike zone. The umpires are better at the MLB level, which I see as a distinct advantage for Julien. There is a concern with his splits, but his left handed bat hammers right handed pitching. By the end of March the Twins should have had ample opportunity to evaluate how Julien would fare versus MLB pitchers or whether he needs to further prove himself at AAA. If Julien shows a bat that plays I want him in Kansas City leading off to open the season. 

Schwarber actually had lower K rates than Julien through most of his minors career, including in AA.  He also moved very quickly to the majors at a younger age.

I think Cavan Biggio is the closest player comp I've found.  Similar build, pretty much the same age to league at most levels, very patient in the minors with ok contact ability and some power.  I think Biggio's 2019 statline is probably a good outcome to look for.  Biggio's power seemed to be more fringy, as he's lost it since they changed the ball.  I do think Julien's raw power is more legit as he really hits the ball far sometimes, even if his in-game power in the minors looks fairly similar to what Biggo did.  So I do think Julien can maintain around 20+ HR power in the majors.

I think Julien will have a similar year to Luis Arraez in 2019, a very good rookie called up mid-season that pushes out one of the veterans on the roster. After this year, it looks like Julien will take the same role as Jose Miranda this year, push out a veteran and hold down a position for a couple months until a super-prospect gets called up, in Miranda’s case it’s Royce Lewis, for Julien it will likely be Brooks Lee. I really hope this team doesn’t sell off any infield prospects soon because having an infield of (Right to left) Kirilloff, Lee, Lewis and Correa with Miranda and Julien as backups/DH options would be fantastic

It seems a lot of people want to trade him.  Unless it’s in a package of a number of other guys for a true front line starter, which is less likely than Kate Upton showing showing up at my door holding the winning Powerball ticket, I’d be inclined to hang onto him. 

There are so many question marks right now.  We don’t know how if Larnach or Kirilloff will amount to anything.  Gallo might not turn things around.  Gordon my regress back into a borderline useless player.  I don’t know if we can confidently say what we have in Miranda at this point.  Throw in injury question marks around other guys like Polanco, Lewis, Buxton, etc.  Some of those situations are going to turn out poorly.

I’m more inclined to believe it’s inevitable that we’ll need him.  We had 5 guys with more than 450 plate appearances last year, and only 2 are returning (Correa and Miranda).  We’re bringing in Gallo with 410 and Vasquez with 426.  We need to replace Sanchez with 471, Urshela with 551, and Arraez with 600+.

There is going to be plenty of playing time to go around, and I’d rather give It to a guy like him over guys like Cave, Beckham, Contreras, Billy Hamilton, etc.  

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I like that Biggio comp. Hadn't thought of that one. Julien isn't the defender Biggio is, but I'd take a little more offense as that trade off and hope Julien is a rich man's Biggio.

Yeah, Biggio isn't a great defender but he's close to average and it doesn't sound like Julien will be.  I could see the value being very similar overall with some differences in the breakdown between offense, defense, and baserunning.

Biggio's production did fall off the last two years, and as far as I can tell it seems like the main culprit is him losing some of his patience and expanding the zone a more often.  I don't know if the pitchers found a weakness that fed into it, but it mostly just seems to be Biggio swinging out of the zone more often.  I think Julien's extremely patient approach will translate to the majors as long as he's able to maintain his discipline though.

4 hours ago, silverslugger said:

RJA beat me to it.  Your doing a guy like this a disservice to play him 40 games at 2nd, 40 at short, 40 at 3rd, and 40 in LF.  Give him ONE position and let him hone his skills.

I agree. How about full time in LF? We could use a RH hitting corner outfielder. He seems pretty athletic. I'm thinking that he has to be teachable enough to at least make the Garlick level on defense, no? Maybe also some time at 1B to make him more valuable?  Put him out there in AAA with Walner in RF, Celestino in CF, Julien in LF, and Contreras as the 4th OF.  It may not work but I don't really see another option. Besides, his hit/on base tool is such that we should really make the effort to try to find him a spot before relegating him to a DH.  

Julien hit .218/.373/..276 (.649 OPS) vs LHP's in the hitter's paradise known as the Texas League while striking out 27.3% of the time.. Plus he can't play defense. IMO, he is way overrated on this list and by those who are counting on him in 2024

29 minutes ago, Lonestar said:

Julien hit .218/.373/..276 (.649 OPS) vs LHP's in the hitter's paradise known as the Texas League while striking out 27.3% of the time.. Plus he can't play defense. IMO, he is way overrated on this list and by those who are counting on him in 2024

 

.373 OBP is still elite. If that's the worst you can cherry pick he's still doing pretty well.