Twins Daily’s Instant Draft Reaction: WTF?

Pretty sure the mods asked us yesterday to allow people to both praise and criticize the draft, since this is a site to talk about the Twins. And, these are threads to discuss the draft.

I'm not saying you shouldn't criticize it, I'm just pointing out that you aren't actually giving Falvey a chance to show results. If you think that's fair, by all means, continue to do so.

I could be seriously wrong here, but I work with a guy that is a life long Indians fan and he didn't seem surprised at all with these types of moves in the draft. 

Seems as if Falvine is under the model of grabbing the athletic hitters early and throwing darts at the board later for pitching. Seemed to build a decent club in Cleveland. 

He also pointed out that the Indians stockpiled SS prospects as well. This also explains quite a bit about the strategy here. These are high value objects for trades and they can also be moved to different parts of the field if their hit tool is that promising. 

I am not saying I am 100% sold, I am actually more skeptical than most, but I will give these guys the benefit of the doubt after talking to my colleague. Seems there is a track record here

So, my assumption was that Lewis and McKay were being played off of each other for the savings and the Twins went with Lewis. But just a few minutes after we drafted Lewis, Jon Heyman - a mouthpiece for Boras - said the Twins won't be saving money on the pick since he's the best position player since Bryant. So maybe the answer is Boras is screwing the Twins.  "You told us you'd consider taking 6m!" "Yes, and now we're down considering it and we'll sign for 6.7m." 

 

I dunno. That at least makes sense. 

I just struggle to believe that Boras would do that.  While he is always looking out for his players, it would be a pretty big hit to him to essentially cause the Twins to never deal with him again as they wouldn't be able to trust anything he says. 

So it's the same guys who failed in the past with one approach and now take a different approach but are still the same guys so are automatically doomed to failure because they failed in the past with a different strategy under different leadership.

 

This is my problem with these arguments. New leadership comes to the organization, keeps some of the old staff on, use a different draft strategy, but they still have past failures hang over their head because they're "the same guys".

Disclaimer: I'm on board with the first couple picks but wasn't thrilled with the "Reach for Leach," (I think I'll copyright that) move. 

My issue with these arguments is the use of TR as some sort of Boogeyman. It was time was for him to go and I'm glad the Twins made a change, but he was far from the only issue in the organization. A large number of people who also contributed to the dismal drafting/developing/signing of players are still here. Does that mean they're destined to continue the streak of poor performance? No, but I can certainly understand why that is a concern. Ultimately the draft decisions ran through TR, but those same scouts and development staff who provided him with their own data/professional opinions are doing the same for Falvine. Their past failures are relevant. They shouldn't have to wear them as a dunce cap but they shouldn't be forgotten simply because the ear they're whispering into has changed.

The first day of the draft was disappointing. Not everybody may feel that way, but it's unfortunately the overwhelming feeling at this point.  Things can change with a couple high upside picks above slot in the 3rd and 4th round, and hopefully they do. 

The argument that we have too many shortstops in the system strikes me as inherently pretty silly. At this level, they're *all* shortstops. Miguel Sano was a shortstop. Jim Thome was a shortstop. The best player on every high school team in the world is a shortstop, unless he throws left-handed. You don't draft second basemen or first basemen (which is why I had no interest in McKay as a hitter). They're the guys who are not athletic enough to play the premium positions.

If Lewis sticks at short, fabulous. Who knows where Gordon or Polanco will be in five years? If not, well, there's plenty of room left on the defensive spectrum for a guy who can run and hit.

Analyzing.

From all reports, #1 seems to not be correct.  The Twins and Lewis had an agreement to sign for underslot before he was selected.

#2 could be correct.  However, as someone else noted above the draft seemed to play out mostly what was predicted.  

#3 I think is doubtful. My guess is that Carlson was just overrated.  

#4  While the Twins are cheap, cheap, cheap, the possible savings from squeezing your draft allocation isn't very significant.

#5  The problem with #5 is that as you go lower in the draft pool, adding your savings to their draft slots isn't enough.   Someone mentioned Blayne Enlow and him being a doubtful sign.  But, if you draft him at #35 and add the Lewis savings to that draft slot, $1,9 million, you can create a total bonus of $2.8-3.2 million based upon the reports of the slot savings from 1.1.   But, if we draft Enlow, or a similar player, at 3.1 that draft slot is only $755,000 meaning that the max bonus you can offer is $1.6-2,0 million.  

I get that going underslot can be seen as trading down from 1.1 to 1.5 to trade up from 1.35 to 1.15, but when you blow by #35 and #37 without looking at a top 15-20 player you are then making up the difference in the much later rounds with a much less impressive package to offer.  And that assumes that you a player drops that you want and that you can actually sign the player.  

For example, what if the player the want is Enlow and they make the $2 million bonus offer and he refuses and heads to LSU.  Then you lose the slot at 3.1 and the whatever you saved underslot at 1.1

In the end, although at first I thought the Twins management was just being too cute, I think they preferred McKay and Lewis to Greene and Wright, and Lewis was willing ot take what the Twins wanted to offer.  The money saving may or may not be used, and they will draft to their draft board.