Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed

10 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

This article acts like Correa is only allowed to be given one physical a year and acts like the Mets won’t be allowed to perform one and the Twins wouldn’t have been able to either. Twins didn’t want to spend the money, simple at that. 
 

oh, it’s a nick Nelson article. Should have expected that. Always leaving out key details that don’t fit his narrative 

Not that Nick needs anyone to defend him, but I respectfully disagree with your statement that Nick always leaves out key details that don't fit his narrative. I don't always agree with Nick, nor any writer at TD, nor any poster at TD, but I feel that all the TD writers are knowledgeable journalists, who try to get to the truth and then write about the truth. However by nature that is difficult to do in this setting, when the FO cannot share medical information without the patient's permission and the FO does not want to share negotiation information nor who is going to be drafted or  who was offered to be traded for whom. And there are things that take place on the field and in the clubhouse which need to stay in the clubhouse. We as posters on TD are given free access to post our disagreements. We have freedom of the TD press, as long as we are civil. We are fortunate to have access to this website and to be able to state reasons for our disagreements in a civil manner....thanks mainly to Nick Nelson and the other owners of TD. Happy holidays to all owners, writers and posters at TD. I love this website. 

9 hours ago, Reds Kevin said:

Kyle Farmer is an outstanding defensive shortstop and average offensive player. He is not Carlos Correra but the Twins should not be afraid to play him there. He is a baseball player not just an athlete.

This is good to hear from a Reds fan. Thanks.

9 hours ago, TNTwinsFan said:

 "Now he's giving up $35 million from the first agreed-upon contract to settle for a lesser deal with New York, because – in Boras' own words – the Giants wanted to conduct more investigation on the second-largest contract in major-league history. "They advised us they still had questions," he said. "They still wanted to talk to other people, other doctors, go through it."  Sounds like the Twins sang a similar tune, and that was also a deal-breaker."

I've been following the Twins for about years now. Been on TwinsDaily for over a decade. The amount of doubt and vitrol this front office receives for their decisions or seeming lack thereof really needs to be tempered. Its so easy to sit back and "arm chair quarterback" these decisions as if they are being made while playing the latest version of a MLB video game. You really think these guys are making multi-million dollar decisions on a whim?! You think they don't see at least what you see and more? Everyone makes mistakes, but wow, I'm tired of reading folks get on here and type thousands of words acting as if they know better. I've made some suggestIons abut who I'd like to see them sign, but, I know its not so easy. Just realize theres much more to the story than you might think.

Really good post TNT. Thank you for your wisdom. 

9 hours ago, JYTwinsFan said:

It's a very emotional thing for fans to evaluate these situations and we treat them as zero sum games as if Correa is either a perennial All Star or one day he vaporizes walking down the street ceasing to exist and rendering the contract a complete failure. I would guess that since these 30 teams are businesses each worth $1 - $6 billion that they are quite scientific in how they evaluate and manage their risk. Certainly an insurer is VERY scientific in managing their risk. A 1 year vs. 3 year vs. 10 year vs. 13 year contract at different AAVs, total values, and medical ailments ...when combined all carry varying degrees of total risk that they can quantify pretty well. At some point, whatever actuarial process they use, the calculation tips from being in your favor (for fun let's say 10 years @ $285mil was 51% in your favor) to being not in your favor (let's say 12 years at $315mil was only 49% in your favor). Each team has their own threshold and gut, but any sophisticated business these days understands the Sunk Cost Fallacy or in poker terms the err of being Pot Committed. So yes with every incremental change in the variables, the risk calculation changes. The total risk for the Twins in 2022 with a 1-3 year contract given their knowledge of the medical history may have been pretty low. I highly doubt "they missed something" or "they are being cheap" as they negotiated in this offseason. My guess is that for any of the 30 teams, but definitely what we are seeing with the Giants and the Twins, their data is clearly telling them that they are on the losing side of the risk if they go above X. I would also guess that when they are weighing "risk" it is not just the risk of Correa being good or hurt. It is a holistic evaluation of risk that includes all of the potential variables that lead to a) a winning team, and b) a profitable business over some period of relatively predictable time. Anyway, I think it is far less emotional inside their board rooms than we think it is.

Great post JYT. Sounds like you may have an economics degree with a minor in psychology. Thank you. 

8 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

The Twins absolutely offered 10 and $285M. They absolutely believed they were in it until that last day. There are reports saying that he was telling people on Monday that he was heading back to Minnesota, but then the Giants blew the other offers away. That's when there was an agreement... pending a physical. 

That's where the Twins were. If he would have accepted the Twins offer, it would also have been pending a physical. Now, who knows what the Twins doctors would have seen or found in the physical. 

But after the Giants brought up concerns, then the Twins absolutely would have needed to re-evaluate where they were at, and it would be crazy to increase how much you would pay a guy when there are question marks. 

And, as others have said... Boras being in a rush to get him signed would make me really nervous too. 

Seth, you have been the voice of reason during uncertainty. That is the quality of a good leader. Thank you. 

8 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

The Twins absolutely offered 10 and $285M. They absolutely believed they were in it until that last day. There are reports saying that he was telling people on Monday that he was heading back to Minnesota, but then the Giants blew the other offers away. That's when there was an agreement... pending a physical. 

That's where the Twins were. If he would have accepted the Twins offer, it would also have been pending a physical. Now, who knows what the Twins doctors would have seen or found in the physical. 

But after the Giants brought up concerns, then the Twins absolutely would have needed to re-evaluate where they were at, and it would be crazy to increase how much you would pay a guy when there are question marks. 

And, as others have said... Boras being in a rush to get him signed would make me really nervous too. 

I believe with you Seth that the Twins believed that they had a chance of signing Correa, basing on last year outcome. MN gave their best offer, Cubs & SF were waiting in the weeds until NYM entered the mix. That's when everything blew up.

MN should have known about Correa's injury, last year when they signed him and it never raised any red flags. MN offer should have been based in part to those files.

I am really confused as to why Nick Nelson and Twins Daily insist on being so tone-deaf about Correa.

HE WANTS TO PLAY FOR A TEAM WHO IS COMPETITIVE, AT THE VERY LEAST.  

Let it go... Any thinking fan let him go when he exercised his option at the end of the season.  

27 minutes ago, RJA said:

I think it is fair to say that TD folks will never have a kumbaya moment where we all agree on exactly what happened and whether the Twins really did all they could to get a deal done, the first time or the second time.  I agree we should move on.  Seth, I think we need some more of your minor league interviews--they always leave me smiling and remembering how great the game is and how many kids work so hard to get to the bigs.  They are truly what baseball is about, and part of the reason that I am increasingly attracted to minor league ball as a fan and a spectator.

Awesome post RJ. Thanks, I needed that.

Quote

 "If Minnesota wanted Correa, Boras conveyed, the team needed to improve its earlier offer – even though Correa appeared compromised with the Giants. The Twins would not have advanced the conversation without investigating the potential issues caused by Correa’s physical. The team did not intend to increase its bid beyond 10 years and $285 million. So Boras stuck with the man in Hawaii (Cohen)."

I think this is the key passage. Boras went back to the Twins and told them they could get back in the mix for Correa if they increased the offer, the Twins said "hang on, something just blew up this other offer and we need to check it out before we go up more" and Boras said, "nope, no more questions".

Right now, we don't really know what the actual medical issue was that caused the Giants to get cold feet. Ankle? Back? Something no one has talked about before? Lots of speculation, and anonymous sources who have agendas. Easy to judge when you're just guessing about the issue.

I'm having trouble blaming the Twins for saying "hey we need a minute to figure this out, because this is unprecedented" when the agent noted for waiting until he gets the offer he wants is pushing them to a) move their money up, and b) do it now now now. It all feels very hinky.

But at the same time, there's a real chance this is all overblown. And the Twins could have done the same move that the Giants did and walk away if there's something in the medicals that was going to prevent a contract from being insured or whatever else this might have been about. So I'm thinking they made a mistake by not upping the 10/$285M offer and taking your shot. Swooping back in at the last minute would have completely changed the tenor of this off-season and positioned the Twins much better for 2023.

I guess eating $30M at the back end of the deal was just too unpalatable for the front office. I suppose it's the honorable thing to do, not sticking someone else with a lead weight of dead money? Because even if they're very successful over the next several years, the odds of Falvey & Levine running the show in MN in 2034 is pretty damn slim. No one lasts 20 years any longer.

My disappointment isn't that the Twins didn't sign Correa, for whatever reason.  I've never expected the Twins to play in the deep end of the pool, at least when it comes to the 5 star free agents who hit the market from other teams.  Oh sure, once in a great while we'll sign a player to an earth-shattering contract because he's one of our own, ala Kirby and Joe.  But, for the most part, swimming in the ocean with the whales has never been the Twin's ownership's deal.  

My disappointment with the current FO is in their continued insistence to play in the kiddie pool with old, washed-up, catch lightning in a bottle, dumpster dive free agents.  You know the type, we've had to live with it through the back end of the Terry Ryan run and it was the last thing I expected from the current FO when they came aboard.  

My other disappointment is with the current FO and field managements lack of desire to field a fundamentally sound defensively and aggressive team, as well as that stellar bullpen needed to go deep into the playoffs.  There's one team doing that in our division.  Oh well, looking forward to more mediocre baseball with LOTS of strikeouts, miscues in the field, and no aggression on the basepaths.  Ho Hum.

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I absolutely don't believe that.

I agree with you; more likely a case of Terry Ryan style  "non-speak" .  Twins FO present their numbers to Boras and CC, Boras chuckles while CC face palms shaking his head. FO leaves office able to state "well, they didn't specifically say "no", so we're still in it".

I do not blame the Twins for not upping the offer after what played out.  I do not trust a thing Borras ever has to say.  He has always tried to downplay injuries for his clients in the media.  He will always say the medical concern should be no concern.  Only to then have major injury pop up for his client. I am not saying Correa will suddenly have some career ending injury, but if true the Twins wanted to see what the issue the Giants had was, I see no issue there.  I work with people making deals all the time, and I believe in transparency in deals, never hiding information.  That is just me.

Why would the Twins raise their final offer. Especially after SF had injury concerns. That sure wouldn't want to make you go from 10 to 13 years ..

The funny thing about this entire discussion is this:  After the Giants backed out, if the Mets had not jumped in there is every indication Correa would have, indeed, taken the Twins offer of 10/$285.

And then what would we have thought about the "non-competitive offer" that Correa "was never going to take"?

I still think Correa is ecstatic to be in NYC with his buddy Lindor on a stacked team.  But if the Mets had not been willing to break the bank on yet another player, Correa may very well have been back with the Twins for the next decade.

Food for thought.

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Seth, I really need this explained. When he declined the option years, Correa called himself top end designer clothing  and said the Twins had to pony up if they wanted to keep him. Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor already had deals that dwarfed 285M and everyone in the baseball world took Correa’s comments to mean he wanted a similar, if not larger deal. Why were theTwins the only entity that thought they could sign him for that much less?

It doesn’t add up.

I agree with you.  Boegarts got a 280M deal and he was supposed to be second fiddle to Correa.  The minimum I mean minimum had to be a 300M deal.  If they were never going to go there it seemed hard to believe this was ever going to get done.  

Sorry but I don't buy Seth's theories on this.  They had Correa all year last year what due diligence was left? If there was any then that makes this FO look incompetent IMO.  If the Twins really wanted Correa they likely could have had him by adding an Option year where he gets 30M if the keep him and 15M to buy him out. That gets them over the 300M guaranteed and potentially matches the Mets offer.  Maybe the Mets would have moved the bar further out then hard to say but I would have a lot more respect for their efforts if they had done that.

I will say Boras feeling the need to move off of San Fran so quickly is odd and doesn't play well.  As noted by others he is notoriously patient in making deals.  Certainly seems like he could have given them through Christmas to make a decision.  Still I guess with the deal falling through and Correa being aced out late in market last year he might not have wanted to wait for what he might have felt was an inevitable "no deal"  from the Giants. It would have been hard to renegotiate with the Giants if they no longer wanted to go 13 years as it could set a precedent for teams outbidding and then exclusively negotiating after "finding something" in the physical.  He also might have just been pissed and wanted to hurt SF by moving Correa elsewhere.  Hard to say what the motivation might have been but I will agree with others that is suspicious. 

At any rate I am not too upset the Twins didn't get Correa for 10 years.  Those last 3 to 4 to 5 years of talking what a dead weight he is would have sucked.  However, my point stands. If this FO really wanted Correa I think they could have had him but the bar was 300M.  They should have known that from the beginning.  If they were not going to go there they probably had no business even bidding.

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I absolutely don't believe that.

Buster Olney doing the dirty work...  I am going to pull a quote from his paywall article today:
 

Early in the offseason, the Twins made it clear they wanted Correa back, and according to industry sources, they offered $285 million over 10 years. When you factor in state taxes and the length of the proposals, rival evaluators note that Correa is actually making markedly less annually in his deal with the Mets than he would've gotten with the Twins, let alone the Giants.

But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York.

I have said this in other places.  Correa's final decision was not about money.

Boris's rush to get this done tells me there may be something legit to the physical the Giants gave him.  Otherwise he would have taken his normal time to get CC back to that $350M figure he sought.

10 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Buster Olney doing the dirty work...  I am going to pull a quote from his paywall article today:
 

Early in the offseason, the Twins made it clear they wanted Correa back, and according to industry sources, they offered $285 million over 10 years. When you factor in state taxes and the length of the proposals, rival evaluators note that Correa is actually making markedly less annually in his deal with the Mets than he would've gotten with the Twins, let alone the Giants.

But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York.

I have said this in other places.  Correa's final decision was not about money.

And here I thought it was all about his desire to raise his family in the Minnesota Community! (And I always believe what Boras and his clients tell me just like our FO) 

Wouldn't it be something if Correa does not pass his physical with the Mets?  Him and Boras would be in real pickle.  Actually, I would kind of like for it to happen.  I still in the camp that the Twins own over-all number one draft pick Royce Lewis like Correa will be one hell of a shortstop.  Brooks Lee has all the makings too.  Go Twins and happy holidays!

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Maybe the Twins has some reason to doubt Boras. Plus suspiciously Boras seemed to be in a huge hurry. Probably the Twins did not want to sign Correa without confirming why the Giants backed out, so the Twins could make an informed decision. It's called due diligence. Maybe the Twins felt that Correa would not want to move to 3B in New York, and that Correa enjoyed being the acknowledged team leader in Minnesota at SS. Who the hell knows. I'm not sure even Correa knows what happened.

What mystery team was going to jump in and beat NY's offer? Was Boras in a hurry, or did he get the best possible offer and advise Correa to say yes?

Passing because you refuse to spend isn't due diligence. 

27 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Buster Olney doing the dirty work...  I am going to pull a quote from his paywall article today:
 

Early in the offseason, the Twins made it clear they wanted Correa back, and according to industry sources, they offered $285 million over 10 years. When you factor in state taxes and the length of the proposals, rival evaluators note that Correa is actually making markedly less annually in his deal with the Mets than he would've gotten with the Twins, let alone the Giants.

But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York.

I have said this in other places.  Correa's final decision was not about money.

AAV doesn't matter, CC is going to make more money during the length of his Mets deal than he would've in MN. What is it about the extra years + extra money that's so difficult to grasp? Yes, CC's opportunities to earn off the field are much greater in NY. Also yes, the Mets paid him more than the Twins.

Well I think a few things, first we don't or may never get the full medical details on what the Giants saw with correa. Second it's possible, in fact good, that doctors have differing opinions when looking at a set of records. Perhaps the Twins doctors were fine with Correa when the Giants were not. To my knowledge there aren't any medical doctors/bio physicists in the forum so I don't thinks its very useful to speculate about the medical records and what could have happened there.
Some people have mentioned insurance as a possible reason, seems certainly it would be a factor though I don't know enough about the insurance industry, nor its relation to MLB, to say anything useful on that.

What I do know however is that a contract below 300 million dollars was never going to get Carlos Correa signed and assuming the mets deal is made official, my prediction will have been correct. That the twins offer never reached that money signals to me they were never serious about resigning Correa. They knew what Correa wanted something better than the Lindor contract and they knew what the market was like after Turner and Bogearts signed. Then to have the chance to get on Correa again and not moving from your original offer just confirms that for me. I think twins fans were all taken for a ride with this Correa saga. If you look at it from Boras/Correa POV it make perfect sense to have the Twins playing up your market so that you can then get a serious player to come in and give you the deal you want. It also makes sense from the Twins perspective as they can say they tried hard to get Correa and then have an excuse as to why they have lowered payroll YoY when league revenues only keep increasing. I would have been fine with the Twins saying they didn't want Correa at the start off the off season, but after all this noise and circus to then lowball Correa twice makes me extremely distrustful of their intentions from the start.  

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

 

But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York.

I have said this in other places.  Correa's final decision was not about money.

BINGO.  And that will always be a problem for this team.  I don't think it was 100% about the money.  Probably first and foremost on his mind was a chance at winning a world series and then a close second money.  The Twins didn't really have a chance from the very start, which is why I still think they should have traded him last fall before the deadline.  Oh well I guess.  Regardless, I'm relieved he didn't sign with the Twins.  The last 4 or 5 years of that deal are gonna be bad, bad, BAD for the Mets.  Given his injury history I would be nervous giving him even 10 years.    

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If every GM acts the same way, I suggest the problem is above them. 

Mike,  I don't think your seeing the point I was trying to make.  My point was that we have been operating under an assumption that the current FO was going to use metrics, new-school thinking, etc. etc. etc. to overcome the constraints from above.  Something that most of us agreed Terry Ryan and co. were failing miserably at about 7 years ago.  To date, there's been precious little evidence that their succeeding where the previous FO failed.  

Only time will tell.  However, with the current FO, time seems to be running out in terms of the fan's faith in the product.  Luckily, they have an ownership group that is beyond patient so long as they are constraining themselves to ownerships bottom line.

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Buster Olney doing the dirty work...  I am going to pull a quote from his paywall article today:
 

Early in the offseason, the Twins made it clear they wanted Correa back, and according to industry sources, they offered $285 million over 10 years. When you factor in state taxes and the length of the proposals, rival evaluators note that Correa is actually making markedly less annually in his deal with the Mets than he would've gotten with the Twins, let alone the Giants.

But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York.

I have said this in other places.  Correa's final decision was not about money.

People just pay attention to the money being paid and not the money taken home when they see the numbers.  Some players will look at those things, how taxes factor in, one reason many people say Texas teams have advantages because no state taxes.  It would not be responsible for someone to not factor those things in.  However, it is also possible that having the record contracts regardless of where it is has importance.  I do agree if you factor in all the aspects Correa left actual money on the table to leave for other offers. 

I'm sure Boras called and said put up 10 years and 325 million and he's yours. The Giants dodged a bullet and Cohen is just an idiot.