Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

 

Won’t like me quote you mike but came here to post the same article. His BABIP was so low last year because those 17 extra hits were homers last year and didn’t count towards BABIP.

Homers have no effect on BABIP. They are entirely removed from the equation because they are not a "ball in play".

Edited February 18, 2018 by Oxtung

 

This is off topic, but stats aren't objective. Ever. They are all formed by humans, which means they are founded on human choice and bias. Statistical analysis is one form among many of narrating the world. The history of science is full of people developing statistics that both reproduce and justify preexisting viewpoints. The statistical concept of regression is one example. It describes an anomaly returning to some mythical norm. Did you know that the concept was invented by Charles Darwin's cousin, Francis Galton--the father of the eugenics movement? In that context, regression gains a sinister aspect, in that it applies standards of normalcy and deviance to human bodies and paves the way for "legitimate" racial hierarchies.

Stats are not objective.

You're conflating objective stats with subjective projections. "Regression" is not a stat. It is applied to statistics to create a forward looking prediction. That is entirely subjective.

 

Stats, by definition, are objective. Rosario hit 27 HR's last year. His BA was .290. He had a .312 BABIP. These things are indisputable. 

Odorizzi will be long gone from the Twins before Palacios ever plays a major league game. That's if he ever does. So the Twins win the trade until the day Palacios, MAKES the majors. Knowing the Twins luck. he will be the next coming of D Jeter and all our other SS prospects will flop.

Homers have no effect on BABIP. They are entirely removed from the equation because they are not a "ball in play".

Exactly. But they impact performance. Lets add them to the equation. Let’s pretend 500 balls in play at .300. That’s 150 hits. Now 500 balls in play at .200. That’s 100 hits. Now let’s add 30 homeruns to the .200 rate and 18 homeruns to the .300 rate

 

168/518 = .324

 

130/530 = .245

 

Closes the gap in rate quite dramatically. Now plug in the actual numbers? .270 vs. .230 starting point? Actual average balls in play each year... can’t find the raw stats that go into it, but I’m guessing there’s no difference once you account for homeruns.

Edited February 18, 2018 by AZTwin

 

Exactly. But they impact performance. Lets add them to the equation. Let’s pretend 500 balls in play at .300. That’s 150 hits. Now 500 balls in play at .200. That’s 100 hits. Now let’s add 30 homeruns to the .200 rate and 18 homeruns to the .300 rate

168/518 = .324

130/530 = .245

Closes the gap in rate quite dramatically. Now plug in the actual numbers? .270 vs. .230 starting point? Actual average balls in play each year... can’t find the raw stats that go into it, but I’m guessing there’s no difference once you account for homeruns.

You're more than welcome to create your own stat with whatever inputs you desire and if it leads to an improvement in our current understanding of the game, awesome! 

 

BABIP is used to understand how lucky/unlucky a player was based on the balls that landed in the field of play. Since there is no fielder that can affect home runs it isn't included (the minute number of Torii Hunter-like catches withstanding).

 

In the case of Odorizzi, his very low BABIP suggests he got pretty lucky last year and we should expect more hits to fall in 2018, regardless of how many home runs he gives up.

 

A few stats to think about with Odorizzi and his nice ERA:

 

- Odorizzi had good fortune with bullpen help. League average ~30% of bequeathed runners on base end up scoring. Odorizzi had only 15% last year.

- Odorizzi was 7th in baseball in total unearned runs.

- Baseball Reference calculated that he had the easiest pitching environment in the AL in 2017. This attempts to combine the quality of opponents, team defense and stadium effects.

I was wondering how a pitcher with 143 IP, 117 hits allowed, 127 KO's could have a 0 bWAR.  I like the 'new' stats, but don't always understand how they are calculated.  So from reading the comments to this point, I'm guessing Odorizzi had a 0 bWAR because of a high(ish) walk rate, a high(ish) HR rate, extremely low BABIP, and a high strand rate.  

I still think it was a great trade, now if they can land Archer or someone at the top, Cleveland should be worried.  But that can also occur during the season.  

I hate being negative, BUT if looks too good to be true its usually too good to be true.

 

just going out on a limb, but I believe AZ was saying s/he’d be ok if more homers stayed in the park, as then they would be a part of the BABIP metric.

Bingo.  Even if it turned some of those homers into doubles.  Its a net positive.

Edited February 18, 2018 by AZTwin

 

Odorizzi had a decent start last year but was terrible from midseason on. (And "midseason" is being generous). Of his 28 starts, 18 were bad outings (3 or more runs or lasting less than 6 innings).

 

Teams expect more than 150 innings from their #3 pitchers. This is no #3. If he performs at his potential he is a #4. If he continues his slide, well....

 

It's weird how the Twins get tunnel vision on certain players, particularly pitchers. This isn't the first time Odorizzi has come up in conversation.

Some are suggesting Odorizzi can play better with a better defense behind him. According to his BABIP, he was extremely lucky last year when it comes to defense, luckier than any Twins pitcher. The dude allowed 59 home runs over the past two years! His failures are all on him.

 

Rays fans are happy to see him go. I suspect we have been Miloned.

non-quality starts (as you define above) describes roughly 80% of Minnesota's starts last year by pitchers not named Berrios and Santana. So on this team last season (arguably his worst ever), Odorizzi would have been our third best starting pitcher. If he is out there every fifth day as our #3, I will feel more confident in our chances than watching Bartolo Colon or Implosion Gibson or Adalberto 4-2/3 IP Mejia.

 

Now I'm not saying I wouldn't love to acquire a true #1 or ace, but Santana was pretty close to that over the last couple years pitching multiple shutouts and complete games (he led the entire AL last year in both categories). In addition, over the last five years pretty much everyone has been saying that Berrios is projected to be our next superstar starter. He was pretty darn good last year and if he improves on that he very well might be our ace that we are looking for. The fact of the matter is that MLB teams don't trade young cost-controlled #1 starters frequently and when they do they want a Kings' Ransom. Even high-end young cost-controlled non-aces (Jose Quintana) cost ridiculous amounts via trade. 

 

If we do not acquire another starter, I feel fine expecting our rotation to be Santana, Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, ?. With a dramatically improved bullpen, this team should compete with CLE for the division all season. Whether or not we can get past NY or HOU in the post season remains to be seen, but nothing is ever guaranteed. Maybe we get lucky and a team goes into sell mode at the trade deadline and the Twins do a Royals-like move and acquire a Cueto-level starter to carry us through the playoffs. 

so i was slightly off - the Twins were 30/104 on quality starts by pitchers not named Santana and Berrios. So our 3-5 starters only had 71% failure at achieving Quality start status. Over the last four years Odorizzi has 59 QS in 120 Starts. That works out to basically 50% quality starts.

Having a top outfield playing behind him is bound to help his numbers. Also, I really like the trade.

Yeah, I also think they're a .500 team but they'll be a few wins above .500 thanks to the poor competition in the division. They sorely need a #1 starter to be a playoff contender.

 

I personally think they're done with adding starters (Wolfson said something to that affect). However, speaking of getting a DH, I would try to acquire Dickerson from the Rays. Now that's he's DFA'd, they're basically forced to trade him, so I think the Twins could get a discount on him.

Our DH may have just arrived in camp. LEN3 reported, delicately, that Sanos conditioning has been impacted by his leg injury. Reading between the lines is not only acceptable, it's highly encouraged. I for one fear that Sanos season is going to be very disappointing. As for playing third, that seems to be quite a bit into the future.

Actually, Odorizzi could be 0 WAR, or even slightly positive, and still be a "negative" for the Twins, given they are stopping their search for a better starter with him.

In football terms, it’s like trading for a starter for a future 4th round pick

Should think about a 2-3 years extension with a buyout clause.