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  • Twins 9, Rays 4: Buxton Homers Twice, Twins Offense Crushes The Rays


    Thiéres Rabelo

    In yet another inspired night by the offense, who had Byron Buxton homer twice, the Twins got a convincing win against the Rays to start the series. Devin Smeltzer had a quality start, despite not finishing it the way he wanted.

    Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

    Box Score
    Starting Pitcher: Devin Smeltzer, 6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (96 pitches, 61 strikes, 63.5%)
    Home Runs: Byron Buxton, 2 (17), Carlos Correa (5)
    Top 3 WPA: Byron Buxton (.198), Devin Smeltzer (.110), Jorge Polanco (.082)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
    2053940214_chart(2).png.3140f468d8770fa8df5a9a38c893d7ff.png

    Over the last seven days, the Twins offense has experienced a spike in productivity. Coming into this game, they had baseball’s second-best OPS in that span, at .945. The bats continued to impress at the beginning of this game. Despite capitalizing on only one run, five of the first eleven Minnesota batters reached safely.

    They quickly jumped to a 1-0 lead with a second-decker from Byron Buxton five pitches into the game. According to Aaron Gleeman, that home run raised Buxton’s SLG to .702 since May 26, when he snapped a 0-for-30 slump. It was Byron’s fifth homer in the past six games – only his second of the season as a designated hitter.

    Despite having several batters reach base, the Twins failed to bring them home. Through four innings, Minnesota went 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position and left five men on base. Fortunately for them, Devin Smeltzer put together another lovely outing.

    The Rays tied the game in the top of the second on an Isaac Paredes long solo home run. Smeltzer gave up a leadoff walk to start the third but then followed that up brilliantly: he retired nine consecutive batters on only 35 pitches. He completed five innings of one-run ball with only 70 pitches. All he needed at that moment was some run support.

    Twins explode for six runs in the fifth
    Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen kept the Twins scoring on a leash during the first four innings, but his start was wrecked in the fifth inning. Minnesota crushed him scoring four runs on six hits, four of them for extra bases – not to mention a walk drawn by Trevor Larnach.

    Buxton led the way hitting his second solo home run of the night, smashing a low-hanging slider for a line drive that barely cleared the centerfield wall into the Twins bullpen. With that dinger, Buxton became only the fourth player in Twins history with back-to-back multi-homer games, joining Don Mincher, Kirby Puckett, and Eddie Rosario.

    Two more runs came in the following three at-bats when Carlos Correa hit a double to left, then was pushed across by Max Kepler, thanks to a fielding error. Kepler himself scored next, with Jorge Polanco hitting a double to left, making it 4-1 Minnesota.

    A mound visit didn’t help Rasmussen, as he gave up a walk to Trevor Larnach. Gary Sánchez then hit a grounder to left that third baseman Yandy Díaz couldn’t glove, allowing Polanco to score the fifth run and Larnach to go to third. That was the end of the night for Rasmussen, but not the end of the Twins' scoring spree.

    Now facing old friend Ralph Garza Jr., Nick Gordon got a two-out single off the end of the bat to bring home Sánchez. At this point, Luis Arráez was the only Twin not to reach base on the night. That, of course, would change as he followed Gordon’s RBI single with one of his own. He hit a liner to right that scored Gio Urshela from second, making 7-1 Twins.

    Smeltzer pitches into the seventh, departs after being roughed up
    After five brilliant innings, Smeltzer pitched yet another scoreless frame in the sixth inning. His streak of consecutive retired batters reached eleven before he gave up a two-out single to Harold Ramírez. He struck out Díaz to end the inning with a healthy 84-pitch count, which made the decision to bring him back for the seventh a no-brainer.

    Unfortunately for him, his almost impeccable start was stained, and he had to leave the game before he could record a single out in the inning. Randy Arozarena hit a long flyball to deep center that could’ve been gloved, but Gordon failed to. It took Kepler too long to get to the ball that bounced off the centerfield wall, which allowed Arozarena to score an inside-the-park home run.

    On the very next pitch, Vidal Bruján hit a bullet to deep left, out of Larnach’s reach, for another home run. Even after a mound visit, Smeltzer seemed a bit off, and after an eight-pitch at-bat, he gave up a walk to Paredes, prompting Rocco Baldelli to pull him from the game. Griffin Jax came into the game and, with three strikeouts, made sure the Rays didn’t score anymore.

    The Twins bullpen needed some damage control after Thursday’s meltdown against the Yankees. Jax striking out the side and preventing a Rays rally in the seventh was a good start. Then, in the eighth, Baldelli made the odd choice of bringing Joe Smith into the game (he tossed 26 pitches the night before). He had a blown save on Thursday night, giving up a game-tying two-run home run.

    Maybe one way to reason for bringing Smith into this game is that he could regain some confidence. Coming into tonight’s game, he had an awful 8.44 ERA in his previous seven appearances. He could use a good outing here. But he wasn’t off to a good start, giving up back-to-back singles to Manuel Margot and Ramírez. Margot would end up scoring on an Arozarena groundout, but Smith managed to keep the damage to the one run.

    Correa adds on some insurance
    Garza Jr. settled down and finished his outing by retiring seven out of eight batters, keeping the Twins offense scoreless in the sixth and the seventh innings. But once he departed the game, the Twins bats were back at scoring some more runs.

    Arráez hit a leadoff single to open the eighth and, a couple of at-bats later, Correa took reliever Calvin Faucher deep for his fifth home run of the year, breaking the game open once again. Then, it was up to Emilio Pagán, who had no trouble closing out the game with a perfect ninth, making it his fourth scoreless appearance in the last five games.

    What’s Next?
    Both teams are back on the field tomorrow, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:10 pm CDT. No starter has been officially determined by the Twins yet, while the Rays will turn to rookie righty Shane Baz, who will be making his season debut.

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      MON TUE WED THU FRI TOT
                 
    Smith 0 0 0 26 24 50
    Cano 0 33 0 13 0 46
    Jax 0 0 27 0 14 41
    Megill 0 38 0 0 0 38
    Moran 0 0 0 36 0 36
    Pagán 0 0 15 0 15 30
    Duffey 0 19 0 0 0 19
    Duran 0 0 0 15 0 15
    Thielbar 0 0 14 0 0 14
    Cotton 0 0 0 13 0 13
     

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      On 6/11/2022 at 2:33 PM, USAFChief said:

    I generally find national announcers don't really know the teams involved well enough to give us good insight. 

    That was the case last night. 

    Expand  

    Maybe they’d be interesting to a non-Twins fan audience, but all their stories and commentary were just down the line of ‘Google Minnesota Twins recent news’ and all they said the home audience already knew. On top of that, that interview of Buxton … ‘I have to bat now’ and they didn’t seem to know quite what to do. Like what’s he going to do? Continue answering questions while he’s standing in the warm up circle and in the better’s box, because that was their allotted time to talk to him? Was kind of weird.

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      On 6/11/2022 at 3:54 AM, GNess said:

    I don't understand the takes on this year's Twins that state emphatically, "They can make playoffs, but can't win it all." 

    First of all, the current Twins roster will likely change (improve?) near the trade deadline. Secondly, the Twins can score and defend - if any 1 or 2 of the pitchers such as Gray, Ryan or Pitcher X gets hot, of course they can win it all.

    Baseball and almost all professional sports have numerous examples of the hot team winning it all even if they weren't the best on paper - like the 87 Twins.

    Added benefit - this team is fun.

     

    Expand  

    Because the internet was invented so we can complain more, to strangers. Even about nice things.

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      On 6/11/2022 at 4:32 AM, Aggies7 said:

    I applaud Rocco for bringing smeltzer out for the 7th, even though he gave up the inside the parker and the subsequent homer. Maybe it wasn’t that tough a call in a 6 run game but I’m glad he got a shot. 

    Expand  

    I dunno -- Gleeman makes the point a lot that people don't focus enough on the counterfactual of taking guys out when they do, and this is exactly it. People keep saying "he was doing well, why did they take him out?" and you see it in last night's game. You take Smeltzer out after 6 and he's got a gem of a game, but you send him back out for the 7th, and he gets roughed up. It's fine to do in a laugher, but in a close game sending him back out there like that would have been really costly.

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    If I missed this already, I apologize, but it would be fascinating to hear what adjustments Buxton has made to get him out of that prolonged slump and back on fire. His slash line in the past week and change is just absurd. 

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    Poor Gonzales on Saturday.  Thrown to the lambs.  A give away game.  Rocco did him no favors by leaving 3 of his regulars out of the lineup.  That included a player that hit two home runs yesterday.  Rocco has got to go.  Why rest your star players at home where people pay good money to watch them.  If for some reason you think it's smart Rocco to rest both Buxton and Correa on the same day, do it on the road.  This Rocco has no clue.  His computer needs rebooting.

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      On 6/11/2022 at 11:55 AM, Riverbrian said:

    If Team A #1 doesn't pitch like a #1. Your model falls completely apart. 

    If Team B #3 (pick one) doesn't pitch like a #3. Your model falls completely apart. 

    And the model falls apart every playoff every year. ?

    Expand  

    Yes. It's possible for a great pitcher to throw a clunker. It just doesn't happen often. If you crunch the numbers in the playoff series, the team with the best top 3 starters wins the series at a very high rate.

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      On 6/12/2022 at 2:17 AM, bean5302 said:

    Yes. It's possible for a great pitcher to throw a clunker. It just doesn't happen often. If you crunch the numbers in the playoff series, the team with the best top 3 starters wins the series at a very high rate.

    Expand  

    I'm not sure how far I want to dig. I'm old and it's my bed time. It would have to start with a definition. What time frame do you use to determine the best starters? Over a career? over the current season? the past month? 

    Without knowing the time frame to determine the best.

    Last year. I'd Take the Brewers with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta over anyone and certainly over the Braves top 3 and I'd take the Dodgers top 3 over the Braves.

    Astros and Braves... I'd say it was even. If forced to choose... I'd take the Braves. 

    On the American League side. Lynn, Rodon and Giolito were pretty good in 2021 so I'd take them over the Astros all day long. But... I would have renounced my choice after the Astros lit them up. 

    I would have taken the Astros top 3 over the Red Sox though. 

    Good Night... I gotta get some sleep. 

    Twins Win... Twins Win... Twins Win It!!!! 

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