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  • Twins 6, Blue Jays 5: Twins Walk Off the Jays to End a Wild Game


    Thiéres Rabelo

    After being up 5-0, the Twins failed to capitalize on offense, allowing Toronto to tie the game in the ninth. Thanks to the bullpen and some lousy defense by Toronto, the Twins were able to get a wild walk-off win in extras to even the series.

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

     

    Box Score
    Starting Pitcher: Tyler Mahle, 6 IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 5K (86 pitches, 61 strikes, 70.9%)
    Home Runs: Mark Contreras (2), Nick Gordon (5)
    Top 3 WPA: Michael Fulmer (.307), Carlos Correa (.205), Jhoan Duran (.118)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
    1799940802_chart(1).png.f2ccdfa3db28794efcce3d561e1c90ed.png

    A good turnout showed up at Target Field on a lovely evening, and all eyes were on the Twins’ new starter Tyler Mahle, who was set to make his first start for Minnesota since being acquired at the trade deadline. Well, some hundreds of eyes might’ve also been on old friend and still beloved by all, José Berríos, especially those of Blue Jays fans all over the place.

    The first two innings of this game seemed to set the tone: it was going to be a pitchers’ duel. Both starters faced the minimum, with Berríos needing only 14 pitches to do so – 12 fewer pitches than Mahle. But things took a shift in a very different direction once the third inning started.

    After Mahle pitched around a leadoff walk in the top of the inning, Berríos suffered his first punch. Mark Contreras fell behind in the count 0-2, but he came back to crush a line drive to left-center for his second home run in the big leagues, putting the Twins on the board.

    Berríos limited the damage to the one run heading to the fourth, and while Mahle continued to dominate the Blue Jay lineup, the former Twins ace just lost it. After Mahle tossed a quick, 1-2-3 top of the fourth on seven pitches, Berríos’ nightmare against his old teammates was about to start. Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco opened up the home fourth with a long double and a walk, respectively. Next, José Miranda lined a single to center to push Correa across.

    Then, Nick Gordon didn’t waste any time and jumped on the first pitch he saw for a three-run bomb to right-center. A definite no-doubter to break the game wide open, making it 5-0 Twins before Berríos could even record an out. Minnesota’s offense continued to pound him, and after a Tim Beckham one-out single and a Sandy León two-out walk, Berríos was pulled from the game.

    Toronto rallies back with three home runs
    After four innings of sheer dominance over the Blue Jays lineup, Mahle started to lose his stuff. After retiring seven batters in a row and just as he was one out away from delivering a scoreless fifth, he gave up a two-out home run to Matt Chapman, putting Toronto on the board. He completed five innings of one-run ball on only sixty pitches, still in his second time through the order.

    But just as Berríos’ first home run given up gave Minnesota some momentum, Chapman’s dinger did exactly the same. After a lengthy at-bat by Raimel Tapia to start the sixth inning, Toronto’s number nine hitter, Santiago Espinal, hit a one-out solo homer to center to score the visitors’ second run. Newcomer Whit Merrifield, a career .297 hitter against the Twins, followed Espinal’s home run with a single that set Blue Jays fans on fire at Target Field.

    Then, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crushed a long two-run dong to cut Minnesota’s lead to 5-4. Mahle managed to get back on track and finish the inning, but only after he tossed 26 pitches, the most out of any inning in this game. By doing so, he became the first Twins starter to complete six innings in a game in almost two weeks.

    Bullpen withstands pressure, but missed opportunities prove costly
    On Thursday, the Twins bullpen had one of the worst outings of the season, giving up all nine Toronto runs in a devastating loss. Tonight, they had a great opportunity to rebound from such an awful display, and they did a fine job. Griffin Jax struck out the side facing the heart of the Blue Jays lineup for a quick, 11-pitch seventh inning. Then, Jhoan Duran got two quick outs in the eighth but gave up a single to Merrifield, having to face Guerrero Jr. with the game on the line next.

    Pete Maki made a mound visit and decided not to intentionally walk the All-Star first baseman. Duran couldn’t retire Guerrero Jr., but he managed to induce weak-enough contact to hold him to a groundball single. Facing Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Duran got the huge final out on a force out, setting Jorge López up for the save. After not capitalizing on leadoff doubles in the seventh and the eighth innings, the Twins had flame-throwing closer López in the ninth to try to hold on to a one-run lead. The All-Star closer lost Bo Bichette to a one-out single but retired Chapman next after a tough at-bat for the second out. However, Danny Jansen and Tapia hit back-to-back singles and scored Bichette. That was López’s third blown save all year.

    Offense loads the bases in the 9th, but comes out empty-handed
    Gio Urshela was briefly brought into the game in the ninth inning to pinch-hit for León, and for a third consecutive inning, Minnesota had the leadoff man on. He smacked a single off Yimi Garcia, then left the game for pinch-runner Gilberto Celestino. Luis Arráez moved him to second on a groundout, then he reached third on a fielding error by Cavan Biggio. With only one out, the Jays made the bold decision to intentionally walk Polanco and bring none other than Miranda to the plate with the bases loaded. He struck out swinging, and Garcia got Gordon to fly out on the next at-bat, taking the game to extra innings.  The Twins finished regulation with an awful 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position.

    Twins walk off on a couple of defensive mistakes by Toronto
    Michael Fulmer, making his second appearance as a Twin, scared us all when he gave up a walk to Guerrero Jr. and a single to Gurriel Jr. to load the bases in the 10th inning. However, he bounced back incredibly by striking out Teoscar Hernández and Bichette. It was again up to the offense to salvage this game. Jake Cave had a great, six-pitch at-bat against Jordan Romano, which ended in a strikeout that Jansen couldn’t hold on to. When he made the throw to first, Guerrero Jr. couldn’t hold on to the ball, and ghost runner Gordon reached third. With two men on and no outs, Beckham grounded to short, and Gordon beat the throw by Chapman at home to win the game.

    Postgame interview

    What’s Next?
    Both teams are back on the field tomorrow for game three, with first pitch scheduled for 6:10 pm CDT. The Twins turn to Dylan Bundy (5.04 ERA), while Mitch White (3.70 ERA) starts the game for Toronto.

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      MON TUE WED THU FRI TOT
                 
    Jax 20 24 0 0 11 55
    Fulmer 23 0 13 0 15 51
    Duran 10 0 19 0 17 46
    Pagán 0 16 0 25 0 41
    Megill 0 8 0 29 0 37
    López 0 0 7 0 30 37
    Thielbar 0 0 11 0 0 11
    Sands 0 0 0 0 0 0
     

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    1 hour ago, Dantes929 said:

    I wasn't speaking to your larger question of intentional walk number but the individual situation.   If you end up walking both those guys you are going to face Urshela and Arraez.     Cave to me is a no brainer because he strikes out a lot and you have a strikeout pitcher.    You strike him out (and actually get the out) and numbers change.    There are definitely situations where I would walk guys so I am surprised by your stats but last night would not be exhibit A for intentionally walking guys.   As far as walks go I think players don't work on it as much but also I think it is just tougher to hit a 98mph fastball than the 92mph that guys used to face.    On the flip side, the only thing worse than major league players executing a sacrifice bunt is major league teams defending sacrifice bunts so kind of a wash for me.

    Not to kick a dead horse here, but I wasn't talking about walking both.  You walk Cave, setting up a force at all 3 bases.  You pitch to Beckham, and (assuming he doesn't end the game) Contreras hoping to get the ground ball.  The walk to Beckham was only after what happened with Cave and his taking 2nd.  Rather than have 2nd and third with no out, I would walk Beckham to get a force everywhere.  Once you lost Cave, you were going to face Arraez anyway, unless it ends before that.  So, while I might be able to get the no walk at all thought, once it got to 2nd and 3rd no out, it ends any doubt about walking Beckham.  But there would only be one IBB in either scenario.  

    Overall, I wonder why the strategy is considered taboo; heck, I can't even convince anyone on this site it is still sound.  :)  The strategy I described would have been normal for a century.  What happened recently to change that?  It's almost like when they decided not to actually throw the 4 balls outside before he took his base, they all said what's the use?  :)  

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    13 hours ago, Mark G said:

    Overall, I wonder why the strategy is considered taboo; heck, I can't even convince anyone on this site it is still sound.  :)  The strategy I described would have been normal for a century.  What happened recently to change that?  It's almost like when they decided not to actually throw the 4 balls outside before he took his base, they all said what's the use?  :)  

    It is not taboo. There have been 80 intentional walks in MLB extra innings this year, at ten times the frequency of the next highest inning. It’s just not a strategy chosen in every game.

    I don’t think you are considering strikeouts enough here. Strikeouts are extremely common in the modern game, much more than double plays. And strikeouts rarely allow base runners to advance and virtually never allow the batter to reach. On average, Jake Cave strikes out in a third of his plate appearances, with Tim Beckham not far behind — and Jordan Romano strikes out more batters than an average pitcher. There is a huge cost to passing up those opportunities hoping for a much rarer double play.

    And the Jays strategy did not require perfect execution to work, as you claim. Batters fail to reach base on a strikeout, what, 99.9% of the time? That was a massive fluke. Judging the soundness of their strategy on that outcome is like judging the soundness of an intentional walk based on the pitcher committing a balk right after it. Once a fluke event like that happened, they were going to be between a rock and a hard place regardless of their strategy choice.

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    13 hours ago, h2oface said:

    Check out Arraez and Correa's last 7 and 15 games. Cave and Beckham bring a much hotter bat from St.Paul, and Cave is still hot. Arraez and Correa are almost automatic outs right now. I would, as a manager, always figure in the moment as well as reputation.

    “Almost automatic out” Luis Arraez went 3-for-5 in the very next game. So do you have any predictive power about these “moments”, or do you just learn about them after they’ve started or ended?

    And Tim Beckham’s “hot bat from St. Paul” was 2-for-13 with 5 Ks, and Cave’s hot bat actually struck out. Was that a triumph of “moment” or “reputation”?

    Look, the Jays were likely to lose just like every other team heading into the bottom of the 10th tied. There is no managerial malpractice in pitching to Cave or Beckham in that situation.

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    3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

    And Tim Beckham’s “hot bat from St. Paul” was 2-for-13 with 5 Ks

    I pointed out when he was called up that Beckham's "hot bat" was built on the foundation of a .522 (!!) batting average on balls in play,  Now in the majors, the BABIP is a below-normal .222.  Odds are that his traditional numbers with the Twins may come up a little from where they are now, but there's no way his numbers with the Saints were anything but an unsustainable mirage.  (With no definable defensive skills anymore, he's no longer a major league player, but there was a roster need.  But I digress.)

    So yeah, the opponent should go right after a bat like his, in that situation.

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    8 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

    “Almost automatic out” Luis Arraez went 3-for-5 in the very next game. So do you have any predictive power about these “moments”, or do you just learn about them after they’ve started or ended?

    And Tim Beckham’s “hot bat from St. Paul” was 2-for-13 with 5 Ks, and Cave’s hot bat actually struck out. Was that a triumph of “moment” or “reputation”?

    Look, the Jays were likely to lose just like every other team heading into the bottom of the 10th tied. There is no managerial malpractice in pitching to Cave or Beckham in that situation.

    Look, I just wait for you to use the "predictive power" you are trying to chastise me about after they've started or ended, even a game later and the next day, or two, if they help you in an isolated instance. I even count on it.

    Nothing I said was out of line to consider in the least. And thank you for reminding me and all yet again that the statistical odds say "the Jays were likely to lose just like every other team heading into the bottom of the 10th tied." One can never say it too many times.

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    10 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

    It is not taboo. There have been 80 intentional walks in MLB extra innings this year, at ten times the frequency of the next highest inning. It’s just not a strategy chosen in every game.

    I don’t think you are considering strikeouts enough here. Strikeouts are extremely common in the modern game, much more than double plays. And strikeouts rarely allow base runners to advance and virtually never allow the batter to reach. On average, Jake Cave strikes out in a third of his plate appearances, with Tim Beckham not far behind — and Jordan Romano strikes out more batters than an average pitcher. There is a huge cost to passing up those opportunities hoping for a much rarer double play.

    And the Jays strategy did not require perfect execution to work, as you claim. Batters fail to reach base on a strikeout, what, 99.9% of the time? That was a massive fluke. Judging the soundness of their strategy on that outcome is like judging the soundness of an intentional walk based on the pitcher committing a balk right after it. Once a fluke event like that happened, they were going to be between a rock and a hard place regardless of their strategy choice.

    The perfect execution I was talking about was 2nd and 3rd, no out, and no force anywhere.  At that point he was going to see the top of the order no matter what, and a force at every base would be simply more advantageous than no force anywhere.  That doesn't change no matter how many times a guy strikes out, or how many strike outs a pitcher has.  That is not my opinion, it it the opinion of almost every manager in the game for over a century.  The computers apparently say different.  Oh well.

    A question:  if the batter was Buxton in either of the at bats I was referring to, do you pitch to him or walk him?  He strikes out just as often as the others, and is only hitting .220.  That would mean you pitch to him, as you describe it.  But I will bet they walk him.  I am asking a macro question, not a micro one, when I ask about the strategies used in todays game.  If there are 10 time more IBB's in extra innings than in any other inning, why have we only issues 4 all year?  And only received 5, not all of which were in extra innings?  It is just another example of things that don't happen much anymore.  Strike outs and home runs appear to be all anyone cares about.  I have wondered why for a while, now, and I appear to be a loner there.  Again, oh well.  :)  

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