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  • Twins 4, Royals 0: Gray Tosses Seven Scoreless, and Minnesota Gets a Series Win


    Thiéres Rabelo

    It had been two weeks since the last time the Twins won a series, but they finally did it again. With another brilliant game by a starting pitcher, the Twins got an easy win over the Royals and can now go for a sweep tomorrow night.

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

     

    Box Score
    Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray, 7 IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 8K (91 pitches, 64 strikes, 70.3%)
    Home Runs: None
    Top 3 WPA: Sonny Gray (.300), Gary Sanchez (.137), Carlos Correa (.098)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
    chart.png.8385321b2def55743758ac728109879a.png

    Some early offense gives Gray support to throw seven shutout innings
    In last night’s game, the Twins built a comfortable six-run lead, but they actually didn’t score a run until the third inning. Tonight, things looked different from the get-go, as the Twins wasted no time putting some runs on the board. After Sonny Gray breezed through the top of the first with only eight pitches, the offense ambushed Royals starter Zack Greinke and manufactured three runs in the bottom of the inning.

    Luis Arraez and Carlos Correa opened up the inning with back-to-back singles, and suddenly, the Twins had men on the corners. Jose Miranda then grounded into a double play and scored Arráez from third. This could’ve been the moment when Greinke would get out of the jam, but five more Minnesota hitters would reach before the veteran could close out the inning. Gio Urshela drew a four-pitch walk, then was sent to third on a Nick Gordon single. Gary Sánchez then stepped up to the batter’s box and hit a long double to deep center, bringing home both, Urshela and Gordon.

    While the bats were quiet down by Greinke, who retired nine consecutive batters, Gray had no trouble dominating the Royals' hitting either. By the end of the fourth inning, he had tossed only 54 pitches, striking out five and allowing only a hit and a walk. That was also when Royals hitters began to make some hard contact off him, but, fortunately, it wasn’t quality contact. The only exception was a rocket hit by Ryan O'Hearn to lead off the fifth (104.5 MPH exit velocity) that had .820 xBA, but it was caught by Gilberto Celestino in a fine defensive play at the track.

     

     

    Four innings was all the Royals could get from Greinke, and the Twins offense was quick to pose a threat against the Kansas City bullpen in the fifth, despite not capitalizing. Miranda drew a walk, and Urshela got hit by a pitch, suddenly giving the Twins another scoring opportunity – and prompting a second pitching change from the Royals in the inning. Still, at that point, the Twins lineup had failed to get a hit since the first inning, when they got five of them. Gray, on the other hand, came back to pitch a couple more scoreless frames, completing seven innings of shutout ball, allowing only three hits, walking only one batter, and fanning eight.

    Offense adds on in the 7th, bullpen shuts the door
    After six innings without a hit, the Twins offense delivered a couple of hits in the seventh and scored an insurance run in the process. Kyle Garlick, who replaced Arráez after the first inning, hit a leadoff single and was replaced by pinch-runner Billy Hamilton. Correa sent him to third with a double, and he scored on an Urshela sac-fly, making it 4-0 Twins.

    It was all up to the bullpen now, and they managed to protect the four-run lead. Caleb Thielbar pitched around a leadoff single to complete a scoreless eighth on 12 pitches, and Jorge Lopez closed out the game in the ninth with no trouble, also pitching around a leadoff single. The Twins win their first series since the final week of August when they took two out of three against the Boston Red Sox. They are now back above the .500 mark, sitting at 71-70, and they pick up a game on the Chicago White Sox.

    Postgame interview

     

     

     

     

     

     

    What’s Next?
    The third game of the series is tomorrow, also starting at 6:40 pm CDT. Said game will wrap up Minnesota’s homestand, as the team takes to the road for eight games in seven days in Cleveland and Kansas City after that. Dylan Bundy (4.68 ERA) toes the rubber for Minnesota in the final game of this homestand, with Daniel Lynch (5.14 ERA) starting for Kansas City.

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT
                 
    Moran 0 0 0 40 0 40
    López 0 18 0 0 17 35
    Pagán 33 0 0 0 0 33
    Duran 0 27 0 0 0 27
    Thielbar 0 15 0 0 12 27
    Fulmer 0 18 0 0 0 18
    Megill 14 0 0 0 0 14
    Jax 0 8 0 0 0 8
    Cotton 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Sanchez 0 0 0 0 0 0  
     

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    Nice win for Gray. Unfortunately it's too little, too late. It's nice to see them making hay against the Royals - too bad they didn't do it against teams like Detroit, Texas, and LAA, when the race started heating up back in July/August. 

    Still down by 5 games, Twins need a win today and almost certainly need to take 4-5 in Cleveland to keep the season alive. 

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    When Gray is on he is a pleasure to watch. The way he sets up that two seamer that comes back over the plate is awesome. He talked about working faster after watching Varland, that **** has me very excited to watch MLB pitching next year. It will be interesting to see how the fast pace effects different pitcher's velo and spin. Could be a game changing year. 

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    27 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

    For the record, the Twins took 4 of 7 from the Jays this season.

     

     

     

    Yes, but do you want to bet that we can continue that success?  And right now we need series sweeps, not splits.

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    Two of the best well pitched back-to-back games of the year for this team. Gray is simply a solid pitcher that thinks and then executes. He pitches with wisdom. He has to come back next year and let's hope the Twins have a few healthy players on the field when he does.

    The Twins do have a very frustrating characteristic that has rarely been spoken of during the year. The team often scores several runs in the first inning or second and then goes into hibernation. Fundamentally there is/are coaching issues with the team that loom for us into the future if not addressed in the off-season.

    But, heck, celebrate two beautifully pitched games. Celebrate Correa finding himself. Celebrate watching Celestino defensively playing center as well as Buxton and coming back to play the next day, and in the field and not as DH. A lot of pitching could be gotten for BB.

    Twins Geezer ... out! Go Twins!

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    Look at that gorgeous bullpen chart. Sonny Gray has flown a bit under the radar for the Twins this year, but he really has been a brilliant pickup.

    The Royals are just unbelievably bad. I may think it's embarrassing to have Gio Urshela hitting fourth, when on a healthy team he would be seventh or lower, but if he played for the Royals he would be their second or third best hitter. With Bundy going tomorrow maybe we won't shut them out again, but we certainly should take another comfortable win.

    Hopefully the White Sox beat Cleveland in eighteen innings this afternoon and Karinchak gets put on the IL after he accidentally glues his hand to a post.

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    14 minutes ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

    Hopefully the White Sox beat Cleveland in eighteen innings this afternoon and Karinchak gets put on the IL after he accidentally glues his hand to a post.

     

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    40 minutes ago, Jeff D. said:

    Two of the best well pitched back-to-back games of the year for this team. Gray is simply a solid pitcher that thinks and then executes. He pitches with wisdom. He has to come back next year and let's hope the Twins have a few healthy players on the field when he does.

    The Twins do have a very frustrating characteristic that has rarely been spoken of during the year. The team often scores several runs in the first inning or second and then goes into hibernation. Fundamentally there is/are coaching issues with the team that loom for us into the future if not addressed in the off-season.

    But, heck, celebrate two beautifully pitched games. Celebrate Correa finding himself. Celebrate watching Celestino defensively playing center as well as Buxton and coming back to play the next day, and in the field and not as DH. A lot of pitching could be gotten for BB.

    Twins Geezer ... out! Go Twins!

    Buxton has a no trade clause. 

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    31 minutes ago, wabene said:

    Buxton has a no trade clause. 

    Yeah, isn't that a bummer? He could be the highest paid bench guy. He would get plenty of rest, might not go on DL, might even steal a base now and then as a pinch runner. I'm a wishful thinker from time to time with our team as I wait for them to get serious about contending. One of the worst deals we have done is to sign BB to that contract with his data line on games missed. You would think with all the analytics this club loves, that may have played a larger role, but the team went with it. Now, we, as fans, need to support, but are not contracted to say all the nice things people like hearing. 

    Twins geezer....out again. Go Twins!

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    57 minutes ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

    The Royals are just unbelievably bad. I may think it's embarrassing to have Gio Urshela hitting fourth, when on a healthy team he would be seventh or lower, but if he played for the Royals he would be their second or third best hitter. With Bundy going tomorrow maybe we won't shut them out again, but we certainly should take another comfortable win.

    No lie. KC really looks rough. Witt is a real player, and maybe Pasquantino can be a big bat, but they're still looking very thin. The vets almost all look at the end of the line and there's not enough young guys stepping up. Brady Singer might be their only real quality starter? (He's having a very good year on a bad team) They won't be competing for a while, i think.

    Good to see the Twins handle them easily the last two games, though. Gotta beat up on the bad teams when you play them!

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    Royals are a AAA team at this point and we should beat them. Where was the coaching when we had Greinke at 40 pitches in the first inning. Then we let him back in the game by going 1,2,3 on 5 pitches. He should of been done after 3 maybe 4 innings. This has been a issue all season. We talked about Ryan not being able to finish the nono the other night,if the Royals hadn't worked him to 106 pitches maybe. Rocco would have had to let him go for it with 80-90 pitches.

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    52 minutes ago, Jeff D. said:

    Yeah, isn't that a bummer? He could be the highest paid bench guy. He would get plenty of rest, might not go on DL, might even steal a base now and then as a pinch runner. I'm a wishful thinker from time to time with our team as I wait for them to get serious about contending. One of the worst deals we have done is to sign BB to that contract with his data line on games missed. You would think with all the analytics this club loves, that may have played a larger role, but the team went with it. Now, we, as fans, need to support, but are not contracted to say all the nice things people like hearing. 

    Twins geezer....out again. Go Twins!

    Buxton has 4 WAR this year (both fangraphs and baseball reference have him at exactly 4). I'll assume he doesn't accumulate anymore. On the free agent market teams look to buy 1 WAR for $8 million. That means he's been worth $32 million this season. That means he's already been worth this year's $9 mil, next year's $15 mil, and over half of 2024's $15 mil.

    Him and his injuries are certainly incredibly frustrating. His Ks are frustrating. His lack of steals (likely cuz of his injuries) are frustrating. But that deal is still fantastic for the Twins. $15 million a year is not hamstringing them in any way. 75 to 100 games a year out of Buxton means he more than earns that deal. As frustrating as it'd be to only get that out of him, it's still a great deal for the Twins. A team serious about contending doesn't let a player with Buxton's skill level sign somewhere else. The team did do all the analytics and then threw a party when they signed him to a deal worth only $15 million a year.

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    2 hours ago, Karbo said:

    for the Cleveland series, the lineup is getting awfully thin.

    I think the rotation will be Ober on Friday, Varland and Winder for Saturday's doubleheader, Ryan on Sunday, Gray on Monday. 

    It would be nice to have Buxton and Polanco back for the Cleveland series, even if they aren't 100%. 

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    1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

    Buxton has 4 WAR this year (both fangraphs and baseball reference have him at exactly 4). I'll assume he doesn't accumulate anymore. On the free agent market teams look to buy 1 WAR for $8 million. That means he's been worth $32 million this season. That means he's already been worth this year's $9 mil, next year's $15 mil, and over half of 2024's $15 mil.

    Him and his injuries are certainly incredibly frustrating. His Ks are frustrating. His lack of steals (likely cuz of his injuries) are frustrating. But that deal is still fantastic for the Twins. $15 million a year is not hamstringing them in any way. 75 to 100 games a year out of Buxton means he more than earns that deal. As frustrating as it'd be to only get that out of him, it's still a great deal for the Twins. A team serious about contending doesn't let a player with Buxton's skill level sign somewhere else. The team did do all the analytics and then threw a party when they signed him to a deal worth only $15 million a year.

    They do not try to buy at $8MM per 1 WAR. They seem to try to buy at $6MM, but many free agents underperform expectations. It winds up netting out to 1 WAR per $8MM they spend. At least the last I looked into it.
    i.e. a free agent player producing 5 WAR gets $30MM/yr on a long term deal. The free agent player actually generates more like 3.7 WAR after the contract is signed with some free agents tanking and a few outperforming. Cost $8MM per WAR, but the team was hoping to buy at $6MM.

    But yeah, I agree with you in regard to Buxton providing significant value at a reasonable cost on his own this year. Buxton produced 4 fWAR this year. While I've been critical of using season WAR numbers in a vacuum on Buxton before because Buxton requires a MLB starting caliber CF to back him up (both from a roster space and additional cost standpoint), from the productivity standpoint, he's been worth $15MM.

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    I've really enjoyed watching these last two games.  I hope we can retain Sonny by signing him to a longer term contract and hope we can get two more starters like Gray and Ryan to fill out the rotation for next year.  If we get two more we should have a solid rotation in 2023.

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    2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    Buxton has 4 WAR this year (both fangraphs and baseball reference have him at exactly 4). I'll assume he doesn't accumulate anymore. On the free agent market teams look to buy 1 WAR for $8 million. That means he's been worth $32 million this season. That means he's already been worth this year's $9 mil, next year's $15 mil, and over half of 2024's $15 mil.

    Him and his injuries are certainly incredibly frustrating. His Ks are frustrating. His lack of steals (likely cuz of his injuries) are frustrating. But that deal is still fantastic for the Twins. $15 million a year is not hamstringing them in any way. 75 to 100 games a year out of Buxton means he more than earns that deal. As frustrating as it'd be to only get that out of him, it's still a great deal for the Twins. A team serious about contending doesn't let a player with Buxton's skill level sign somewhere else. The team did do all the analytics and then threw a party when they signed him to a deal worth only $15 million a year.

     

    1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

    They do not try to buy at $8MM per 1 WAR. They seem to try to buy at $6MM, but many free agents underperform expectations. It winds up netting out to 1 WAR per $8MM they spend. At least the last I looked into it.
    i.e. a free agent player producing 5 WAR gets $30MM/yr on a long term deal. The free agent player actually generates more like 3.7 WAR after the contract is signed with some free agents tanking and a few outperforming. Cost $8MM per WAR, but the team was hoping to buy at $6MM.

    But yeah, I agree with you in regard to Buxton providing significant value at a reasonable cost on his own this year. Buxton produced 4 fWAR this year. While I've been critical of using season WAR numbers in a vacuum on Buxton before because Buxton requires a MLB starting caliber CF to back him up (both from a roster space and additional cost standpoint), from the productivity standpoint, he's been worth $15MM.

    I was going to chime in but bean beat me to it. I agree teams don't want to buy at 8m per war. I've always cringed at that number and have thought 6m was more reasonable. If you tell people Buxton has been worth 32m this season, it will push those already sceptical of analytics further away. Now 24m? Maybe, that sounds better.

    Anyway you like at it signing him to that deal was a sweet deal for the Twins. As with any deal there is still a risk factor.

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    Twins have to win tonite...period. No excuse for anything less. Having said that, with the Sox playing them (KC) SIX times to end the season do we really have any chance at all? If Sox win today and Twins tonite....they go into Cleveland 4 behind. What that means is for that series to be meaningful for those keeping score at home, Twins MUST win 4 of 5 to gain 3 games. Then you still do have a horserace.

    But the Twins injuries just keep coming. I don't see how in the world they can win 4 of 5 from the Guards. That would be pushing miracle territory. But if they did...then it will be an interesting final 2 weeks.

    Arraez can't be out long, with Polanco and Buxton still unable to play. Kepler is iffy, but he hasn't added much. I am not expecting Jeffers or Larnach to return this season, and frankly I doubt Buxton will either...if he comes back, he will still be one inch away from being re-injured. His whole 2022 has been one long injury that he has tried to play through. With so many key players unable to play, its a lot to ask for that depleted team to compete with a much stronger Cleveland team right now. 

    We'll be watching.

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    15 minutes ago, wabene said:

     

    I was going to chime in but bean beat me to it. I agree teams don't want to buy at 8m per war. I've always cringed at that number and have thought 6m was more reasonable. If you tell people Buxton has been worth 32m this season, it will push those already sceptical of analytics further away. Now 24m? Maybe, that sounds better.

    Anyway you like at it signing him to that deal was a sweet deal for the Twins. As with any deal there is still a risk factor.

    Eh, a bit of semantics to me. Of course teams want to pay as little as they can for WAR, but, as bean pointed out, WAR generally costs $8m on the free agent market when all is said and done. Maybe I worded it wrong, but that's really the point. Teams would love to spend less than 6M for 1 WAR if they can, and it's generally the idea behind "smart signings" whether it's buying out FA years or signing free agents. Teams are always looking to get the most WAR for their bucks. MLB teams are most certainly aware of these numbers as well. The smart ones are baking in some WAR cushion and are expecting the free agent signees to perform at the 1 WAR for $8M threshold even if they signed them at the 1 WAR for 6M mark. I'd be surprised if those skeptical of analytics change their tune over 6M per WAR vs 8M per WAR. If you don't like WAR to start it doesn't really matter what monetary value you put on it. Maybe if we broke it down by dollar per BA/HR/RBI total they'd be on board?

    Whether you want to say he's worth 24 or 32 doesn't matter all that much to me. Like you said, paying him 15 a year is still a great deal.

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    So it looks like the Guards will lose to the Sox this afternoon. A Twins win will get to within 4, but still one back of the Sox. But that might give them a little extra boost for the coming showdown.

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    4 hours ago, David Maro said:

    Royals are a AAA team at this point and we should beat them. Where was the coaching when we had Greinke at 40 pitches in the first inning. Then we let him back in the game by going 1,2,3 on 5 pitches. He should of been done after 3 maybe 4 innings. 

    According to this very article to which you are responding, Greinke did only last four innings.  So maybe the coaching was there after all.

     

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    4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    They do not try to buy at $8MM per 1 WAR. They seem to try to buy at $6MM, but many free agents underperform expectations. It winds up netting out to 1 WAR per $8MM they spend. At least the last I looked into it.
    i.e. a free agent player producing 5 WAR gets $30MM/yr on a long term deal. The free agent player actually generates more like 3.7 WAR after the contract is signed with some free agents tanking and a few outperforming. Cost $8MM per WAR, but the team was hoping to buy at $6MM.

    But yeah, I agree with you in regard to Buxton providing significant value at a reasonable cost on his own this year. Buxton produced 4 fWAR this year. While I've been critical of using season WAR numbers in a vacuum on Buxton before because Buxton requires a MLB starting caliber CF to back him up (both from a roster space and additional cost standpoint), from the productivity standpoint, he's been worth $15MM.

    It's sort of shorthand the whole $8M per fWAR, I guess? I don't love it because the first unit of fWAR isn't really worth as much as the 4th or 5th. there are so many fewer players that are truly 5 fWAR guys that is probably isn't very linear. but in terms of roughing our basic value it's not too bad.

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    18 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    It's sort of shorthand the whole $8M per fWAR, I guess? I don't love it because the first unit of fWAR isn't really worth as much as the 4th or 5th. there are so many fewer players that are truly 5 fWAR guys that is probably isn't very linear. but in terms of roughing our basic value it's not too bad.

    Yeah, Fangraphs essentially adds up all the free agent contracts, adds up all those players' WARs and then divides the cumulative contract value by the cumulative WAR created from my understanding.

    In general, free agents produce 1 WAR for $8MM spent (I think it's a little higher than that now). Including players like Stephen Strasburg.

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