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  • Twins 4, Guardians 6: Another Late-Inning Rally Falls Short


    Sherry Cerny

    The Twins and Guardians meet in Game 2 of their three-game series. A late-inning rally last night on Friday night was not enough to overcome the pitching woes early in the game.  From the first pitch on Saturday night, it felt like Groundhogs day, as the Twins fell short despite another late-inning rally. 

    Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhorn, USA Today

    Twins Video

     

    Box Score
    SP: Chris Archer 2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (40 pitches, 24 strikes (60%))
    Home Runs: no one
    Bottom 3 WPA:  Max Kepler (-.160), Cole Sands (-.151), Chris Archer (-.130)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
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    Groundhogs Day on the Mound
    Chris Archer started for the Twins. Two batters into the game, a walk, and a home run from Amed Rosario, the Guardians were ahead 2-0. 

    Archer has rarely completed five innings in a start. Tonight was his shortest start of the year. He pitched just two innings in this game before leaving the game. He was replaced at the top of the third by Cole Sands. 

    Sands just returned from the IL and appeared rushed, unsettled and uncomfortable trying to find the strike zone. In the third inning, his pitches continued to drift out of the strike zone. He walked three and hit two batters to give the Guardians two runs and push the score 4-0. Sands did pitch into the sixth inning and gave up just one more run in his 3 1/3 innings.

    Pagan and the Bullpen Keep Twins in Games
    The bullpen continues to step up and set the tone for damage control and give the offense a chance to catch up. Emilio Pagan, who has been known for blowing saves, but he has been absolutely on fire of late. In his past six games, Pagan has a 2.57 ERA, only five hits, and two runs. It is a massive improvement to his earlier season stats. 

    When the starters have been giving up runs early, the bullpen has come in and kept the runs from accumulating. Pete Maki has taken over in the interim as the Pitching Coach, bringing Colby Suggs in as the bullpen coach. Suggs was the run-prevention coordinator, and it seems that his expertise in understanding run defense may be aiding the bullpen. Since Suggs has taken the helm of the bullpen on July 1, it's taken a bit to catch a rhythm, but his techniques seem to be doing the trick. Suggs, certainly understands and pays attention to mechanics and maybe his personality is just what the bullpen needed. 

    New Rules, New…Kepler?
    MLB has implemented new rules to take place starting in the 2023 season. One of those rules will be not being able to utilize the shift. There must now be two players on either side of second base when the pitch is released, and all four infielders must be inside the infield dirt when the pitcher is on the rubber. No one is probably more relieved about the change to the rule than our own Max Kepler who is extremely well known for hitting into the shift. Tonight, two hits from Kepler were into the shift and the last drive was stopped by acrobatic magic from Andres Gimenez, who was posted far into right field. 

    Kepler has had a great year defensively, but offensively, it’s been one of his worst seasons. Having to recover from Covid in 2021 and a broken toe this season seems to have compounded. Kepler has had a below-normal batting average (.230) than previous seasons. Kepler has been out recently with a hip injury as well. Later in the game, he was robbed of a home run by a leaping Will Benson in left field. 

    Luis Arraez had two doubles tonight, and three hits. It was his 43rd game this season with more than one hit. Arraez and Carlos Correa have been absolutely dominant the past few games, the downfall has been others in the lineup. Twice on Saturday night, Arraez was stranded on base, along with Correa with the guys unable to string together any hits going scoreless until the bottom of the ninth.

    Just when the collective thought the game was over, veteran Bryan Shaw started handing out hits in the ninth inning, and the Twins came alive. Gio Urshela tagged in on a sacrifice fly from Gary Sanchez to put the Twins on the board, and Jake Cave drove a double into left-centerfield which scored Kyle Garlick with two outs. The Twins offense continued to work Shaw with a rip to right field from Arraez, which scored Cave to push the score 6-3.

    At that point, Terry Francona came in to make a pitching change. The Twins had forced Emmanuel Clase to come into the game. Clase is a strong closer, but he was not expecting to come in at all. He allowed a run right away when Correa grounded weakly to third base and a bad throw allowed Arraez to score all the way from first. Jose Miranda followed with a line drive single that sent Correa to third base.

    The intensity rose as Clase as Kepler came up to hit, and after hitting into the shift all night, he hit a hard ground ball to third base (the only defender on the left side of the infield) to end the game. 

    The Twins have their final game of this series with Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. Can the Twins find a way to eek out a win?  

    Do you think there is time to save the season and reach the postseason? Am I a hopeless romantic baseball fan? Let me know in the comments!

    Pitching Preview Match-Up Cleveland Series: 
    Sunday 1:10pm CST: TBD vs. RHP Shane Bieber (9-8, 2.96 ERA)

    Post Game Interview
    Coming soon.

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
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    I saw last night that the major league leader at making outs by hitting into the shift was slow running Carlos Santana. In second place was our fleet footed Max Kepler. (Quoting Dick Bremer: "And another two bouncer to the second baseman by Kepler for the final out of the inning.") Not hitting against the shift is a second example of stubbornness on Max's part. When Max was not allowed to go to play in the Toronto series, because he refused to get vaccinated, Rocco said in a Strib quote:  "That's also a group that doesn't want to be told what to do." Rocco was referring to Kepler, Pagan, Thielbar and Megill. According to the Strib article, missing those 3 games cost Max $108,289 in salary; Pagan -$36,898; Theilbar -$20,856 and Megill - $11,230. It also meant that the team had to bring up 4 minor leaguers to take the places of the 4 major leaguers for the trip to Toronto.  That's pretty stubborn in my book. Some of you will disagree, and I admit I do not have the reasons why any of the players refused to get vaccinated, except Pagan, which I still did not understand when I read it, however in my humble opinion, it possibly could show a "Me first " attitude. There is no "I" in team. 

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    The pressure is off IMO. There will be no AL Central crown for these guys and frankly they don't deserve it anyway. Just play out the string and be done with it. When you try and comeback from 7-0 and 6-0 deficits on consecutive nights, what realistically does anyone expect? All the games left with Cleve and Chi really are irrelevant now because they would have to win just about all of them to gain back the ground they are losing now. Twins aren't nearly good enough to run the table, so we need to face the facts that this is a 3rd place team that may not finish over .500. If they win a few more, fine. But the 'talent' they currently have available to play isn't good enough.

    They should probably shut Buxton down for the  year now. What good will he be coming back with a handful of games left and Twins completely out of the race? Let him heal and see what plague will infect him in 2023.

    Its football and hockey time.

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    The Twins are not a good baseball team right now.  But what should we expect when the lineup, and pitching staff, is half AAAA type players.  We lead the league in players on the IL, perhaps biggest question should be why?

    Time to sit back, watch three minor league teams in the playoffs and get ready for spring training.

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    Might be time to recalibrate  expectations .

    Arraez at .316; second to Bogaerts .318 in AL batting race.

    Just a thought on Correa.  Watching him play, his defense, leadership qualities, durability and stats on offense,  he has been very solid. It's the contract that unfairly diminishes the perception of what in fact, has been a fine year. I'll miss him, and what a pity that there was not a healthy Buxton in the lineup along with him.

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    2 hours ago, rv78 said:

    "Kepler has had a below-normal batting average (.230) than previous seasons."

    Sorry but not correct. This is not below average for him. His batting averages over his career have been .143, .235, 243, 224, 252, 228, 211, and this year .230. Collectively he is hitting .233. It is normal for him. Be it bad luck or not being smart enough to adjust to a shift he has become the new Sano when it's time to kill a rally and the brilliant Rocco who supposedly goes by the numbers ignores his ineptitude and continues to bat him in the middle of the lineup. 

    I know I'm old and don't understand the new analytics of today's game but, technically speaking, .230 is below .233.  Ergo, the statement by the OP is correct.

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    1 hour ago, Karbo said:

    You are correct, Madden did lead the way in analytics. However, recently in an article on the Athletic he says its gone to far. At this point I think there is a lot of people that would be a better manager than Rocco.

    And just for clarification, please list some of the "lot of people that would be a better manager than Rocco".

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    33 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

    Might be time to recalibrate  expectations .

    Arraez at .316; second to Bogaerts .318 in AL batting race.

    Just a thought on Correa.  Watching him play, his defense, leadership qualities, durability and stats on offense,  he has been very solid. It's the contract that unfairly diminishes the perception of what in fact, has been a fine year. I'll miss him, and what a pity that there was not a healthy Buxton in the lineup along with him.

    Good comment.

    Signing Correa raised fan expectations for this team to make a postseason run, as it should have. 

    Expecting Buxton to remain healthy to the end seems misguided in hindsight. 

    What should fans expect, going forward? What will be Dave St. Peter’s sales pitch to the season ticket holders for 2023? I am not one, but I look forward to hearing what that is.

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    This note from MLB.com is worth thinking about - "Archer hasn’t lasted longer than five innings in any of his 25 starts this season. Early on, he was successful in short stints, but lately his short outings had started to tax the bullpen. Archer was 2-3 with a 3.14 ERA in his first 14 starts and the team was 7-7 in those outings. In 10 starts prior to Saturday, Minnesota was 1-9 in Archer’s outings and he was 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA."

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    Once again, the Twins don't give up!

    Sands, FOUR walks and two hit batters. Thank goodness for a double play. But talk about a 39 pitch inning with few strikes. We all wanted him out. He ate some innings, gave up anotehr run putting the team deeper in the hole. Good or bad? Well, at that point Baldelli felt it was a B-game and we were to see Megill and Pagan. A game with four pitchers that shouldn't be on any contending team, if you are really contending. But is there replacements?

    Winder, Ober, Larnach, Jeffers at some point are expected back. 40-man roster spots have to be found for all.

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    Buck, Kirilloff, Larnach, Maeda, Polanco, Jeffers, Mahle all would have been significant additions to the Twins, if they were able to play today. - 4 or 5 possible starting position players and 2 starting pitchers. - These injuries are what doomed the Twins. Not Kepler failing to hit against the shift, not Pagan, not Rocco, not failure to sacrifice bunt (though I would still like to see more bunting), not Tommy Watkins, not Sands' walks, not Wes Johnson leaving, and certainly not Sano. It was the injuries that doomed the Twins to "slightly below average". 

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    Kepler batting cleanup? Why not get that extra at bat and have him bat lead-off.

    Wait, let's have Garlick lead-off and Kepler back second. And, it's only Cleveland. Let's rest Correa, Arraez in the same game.

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    11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    We have gone from trying to win the division to trying to stay above 500. The real question is can we do it

    We are now in third place and now we have 2 teams to beat for the division  ...

    we have never been in third place since we led the division most of the season  ... 

    This team reminds me of the loveable losers  ( cubbies )

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    After today, and Monday’s day off, my understanding is that the rotations sets up: 

    • Tues: Ryan
    • Wed: Gray
    • Thurs: Bundy

    then the Cleveland series:

    • Fri: Archer? 
    • Saturday doubleheader: some combination of Winder, Varland, and Ober returns? 

    Then Sunday and Monday turns back over to Ryan and Gray to wrap up with Cleveland.

    This is baseball, so we know that “funnier things have happened,” but the Twins just can’t afford to lose any more ground at this point. 

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    It is not a team.  It is a mix match of players.  I could be wrong but their is not a true closer or DH.  Correa, Buxton and Polanco seem to be the only players in their “true” position.  The rest seem to be randomly thrown into different positions.  IMO total failure in building a roster.  

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    @Sherry Cerny - Thank you for the writeups  I usually appreciate your optimism, but this is too Pollyanna: 

    "Pagan and the Bullpen Keep Twins in Games"

    The bullpen gave up 4 runs in 5 innings.  Not exactly lock-down.  The only thing they did was save the other arms in the bullpen.  And Pagan continues to struggle even though he is being used in low leverage situations.

     

     

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    I went to the leader board for individual stats and it is amazing.  When you put our team leaders versus overall leaders we are really lacking.  For example Judge has 120 RBIS (yes runs count or we would not be whining about RISP) and our leader is the rookie - Miranda with 61.  Going through all the categories - Buxton still ranks high with HRs, but otherwise it is Correa and Arraez in most categories and they do not rank high except for Arraez in BA and hits.  The pitchers do not make the leaderboard because they do not have enough innings.  Looking at this tells me that the Twins at 500, in the middle of the team rankings are where they belong - which I am sorry to report. 

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    1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

    I am convinced this will never exist. That's like a healthy late-career Tony Oliva.

    Never say never, but regarding Buxton, hightly doubtful.  Next year might be the final straw to start a rebuild if it's anything like the last two season.

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    Just now, mikelink45 said:

    I went to the leader board for individual stats and it is amazing.  When you put our team leaders versus overall leaders we are really lacking.  For example Judge has 120 RBIS (yes runs count or we would not be whining about RISP) and our leader is the rookie - Miranda with 61.  Going through all the categories - Buxton still ranks high with HRs, but otherwise it is Correa and Arraez in most categories and they do not rank high except for Arraez in BA and hits.  The pitchers do not make the leaderboard because they do not have enough innings.  Looking at this tells me that the Twins at 500, in the middle of the team rankings are where they belong - which I am sorry to report. 

    middle of the rankings, and dropping

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    2 hours ago, chinmusic said:

    Just a thought on Correa.  Watching him play, his defense, leadership qualities, durability and stats on offense,  he has been very solid. It's the contract that unfairly diminishes the perception of what in fact, has been a fine year.

    Correa has been terrific at shortstop and mostly takes great at bats. The Twins need to make a decision - pay Correa or live with Jermaine Palacios for a year or two while waiting for Lewis, Lee, or another to step forward or hope Palacios finds a MLB bat. The money spent on Correa is really irrelevant. For those concerned about money, look to those salaries that deliver much less: Sano, Kepler, Sanchez, Pagan, etc. Folks need to get over the contracts of key players and see the value. I am much more concerned about the expenditures on Buxton than on Correa. There is always a budget and superstars fit into every budget. Cleveland finds money for Jose Ramirez. The mistakes in drafting and developing combined with identifying value players are much more key than spending $35+ million to Correa.

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    10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    The Twins need to make a decision - pay Correa or live with Jermaine Palacios for a year or two while waiting for Lewis, Lee, or another to step forward or hope Palacios finds a MLB bat.

    Not 100% sure from the way you phrased it, but I hope it's understood the Twins have no say regarding Correa.  They are committed by contract.  Correa is the one with a decision to make.

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    2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    Buck, Kirilloff, Larnach, Maeda, Polanco, Jeffers, Mahle all would have been significant additions to the Twins, if they were able to play today. - 4 or 5 possible starting position players and 2 starting pitchers. - These injuries are what doomed the Twins. Not Kepler failing to hit against the shift, not Pagan, not Rocco, not failure to sacrifice bunt (though I would still like to see more bunting), not Tommy Watkins, not Sands' walks, not Wes Johnson leaving, and certainly not Sano. It was the injuries that doomed the Twins to "slightly below average". 

    AT best wishful thinking as no one has any idea how thr rookies would have performed .

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    6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    Not 100% sure from the way you phrased it, but I hope it's understood the Twins have no say regarding Correa.  They are committed by contract.  Correa is the one with a decision to make.

    Sorry for not including that Correa has the opt out and will almost certainly be a free agent, which means the Twins will have the option to negotiate with him as can any other team. Correct, Correa makes the call.

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    2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    Sorry for not including that Correa has the opt out and will almost certainly be a free agent, which means the Twins will have the option to negotiate with him as can any other team. Correct, Correa makes the call.

    That's fair.  Even before the opt-out date, the Twins do have a decision whether to try to negotiate some different deal that keeps him with the team for a different period of time than the present agreement.

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    6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Remember, Joe started the analytics drive in Tampa and that seems to be a big part of the fan base disappointment with Baldelli. Rocco can’t bat for Keppler & Polanco nor can he pitch for Duffey, Pagan, nor J. Smith……..nor our recently acquired closer, Mr Lopez….. Neither can Joe Madden [sic].

    I think you might not have been following Joe's progression. Get him before Texas does. Some take it far too far.

     

    Joe Maddon sounds off on analytics in baseball: It’s not the info, it’s the imposition

    https://theathletic.com/3568605/2022/09/06/joe-maddon-analytics-baseball/

    Joe Maddon On Analytics: 'Players Don't Need All This Information'

    https://www.si.com/mlb/rangers/news/joe-maddon-analytics-podcast-texas-manager-candidate-mlb-news

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    38 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    Sorry for not including that Correa has the opt out and will almost certainly be a free agent, which means the Twins will have the option to negotiate with him as can any other team. Correct, Correa makes the call.

    Turner, Swanson, Bogaerts. Or sign the stigma of the Cheatin' Astros, He didn't get what he wanted last year, and there is a reason. He was not prefered at his asking price over Seger (and he wanted that kind of deal but no takers), Simien, Biaz, and Story. No one wanted him long term. After this decline from 2021, and it was a signifgicantly worse year in all respects, Correa may like the $35 million guarenteed and an opt out after next year instead, and give himself a chance to be the guy instead of a participant. If you get paid $35 million, you need to play to value. He cannot shed his reputation, as is evident on the road.

    Multiple factors may undermine star shortstops’ upcoming free agency hauls

    https://nypost.com/2022/06/25/multiple-factors-may-hurt-shortstops-2022-free-agency-hauls/

    Edited by h2oface
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