Twins 4, Brewers 1: Miranda Walks Off the Brewers!

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, 5 1/3 IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 3K (78 pitches, 50 strikes, 64.1%)
Home Runs: Jose Miranda (8)
Too 3 WPA: Max Kepler (.250), Joe Ryan (.190), Jhoan Duran (.133)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Coming off one of his roughest starts of the season exactly one week ago, Joe Ryan was determined to turn the page. The last time he was on the mound, he allowed three runs to score (one unearned) while giving up five hits and two walks in just four innings. It was only the third time this season in which he didn’t pitch more than four frames, the first one since May 10.

This time around, he looked much sharper and comfortable with his command. If against the White Sox last week, it took him 85 pitches to get through four today, he did it on only 56 pitches with nearly 70% strikes. He was mostly lights out during that span, throwing three 1-2-3 innings and doing so with the lead after two: after Ryan Jeffers and Alex Kirilloff reached on a two-out walk and a hit by pitch, respectively, Gilberto Celestino drove in Jeffers with a liner to center.

But Milwaukee tied the game right at the beginning of the third inning with a leadoff home run by Jace Peterson. Celestino made his best effort to steal it at the track, but he fell short. Victor Caratini hit a single right after Peterson’s home run, threatening a Brewer rally, but Ryan didn’t let it get to him, as it appears to have happened a week ago. He followed that single by retiring seven in a row. He did give up back-to-back walks in the fifth but once again was able to pitch around those to end the inning.

Minnesota can’t take advantage of runners in scoring position
In last night’s game, the Twins lineup had trouble getting men on base, especially against the Milwaukee bullpen. This afternoon, however, Minnesota matched last night’s total hits (six) with only five innings. The problem? They couldn’t capitalize on those runners. Through five, the Twins went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and had a total of nine men left on base. During the fifth inning, Kyle Garlick and José Miranda hit back-to-back one-out singles, ending Aaron Ashby’s afternoon. Minnesota brought in Luis Arraez to pinch hit for Gio Urshela, but reliever Trevor Gott took care of things and stranded both runners.

The Brewers defense didn’t make things any easier for Minnesota either. After Carlos Correa drew a leadoff walk in the seventh, Jorge Polanco blasted a long flyball to deep center that had a 66% expected batting average and would very likely turn into an RBI extra-base hit. But Jonathan Davis robbed him of the hit with an outstanding defensive play.

But that didn’t stop the Twins' momentum. In that same inning, Max Kepler hit a long double to right, which also sent Correa to third. Miranda popped out next for the second out, then Milwaukee chose to intentionally walk Arráez to load the bases. Jeffers hit a grounder towards second that caused Kolten Wong some problems with its weird hop, but he ultimately was able to make a beautiful play to beat Arráez at second.

After Ryan departed the game in the sixth inning, the Twins bullpen took over and did a fine job holding back Milwaukee’s offense. Caleb Thielbar (1 1/3), Griffin Jax (1 1/3), and Jhoan Duran (1.0) combined for 3 2/3 scoreless frames. They pretty much kept alive Minnesota’s chances of winning the game on a walk-off. The problem was that the Brewer bullpen was just as dominant. Gott, Brad Boxberger, and Devin Williams combined for 3 2/3 shutout innings, setting it up for baseball’s best closer in Josh Hader – who only had one blown save this entire season, over a month ago. A recipe for disaster, right?

But the Twins offense fought against the odds and managed to overcome such a dominant opponent. Polanco worked a leadoff walk and was followed by a Kepler single. After a mound visit, it was up to Miranda, who was having a two-hit day. He smoked a three-run homer to the second deck of left field to end the game in amazing fashion.

What’s Next?
Minnesota continues their homestand tomorrow when they begin a four-game set against division foes Chicago White Sox. Game 1 will have Sonny Gray (3.03 ERA) looking for a bounceback start against Johnny Cueto (2.91 ERA). The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm CDT.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet