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  • Twins 4, A's 3: Bullpen Completes Sweep of Oakland


    Seth Stohs

    Chris Paddack had a short start, but the Twins bullpen continued to be incredible. They threw six zeroes on the board to close out the win on Sunday. Jorge Polanco had the big hit in the third inning. The Twins won their ninth straight game at Target Field. The A's lost their ninth straight game. 

    Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

     

    Box Score
    SP: Chris Paddack: 2 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (55 pitches, 41 strikes (74.5%)
    Home Runs: None
    Top 3 WPA: Emilio Pagan (0.150), Jorge Polanco (0.146), Gilberto Celestino (0.124)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    image.png

    Pregame Notes
    Injuries and ‘day-to-day’ nagging injuries are adding up, and that continued on Sunday. In the morning, the team announced that outfielder Trevor Larnach was being placed on the Injured List with a right adductor strain. To take his place, the Twins recalled catcher Jose Godoy

    In 22 games this year, Larnach has hit .313/.365/.448 (.813) with nine doubles. He has been hitting most everything hard. Hopefully it’s just a 10-day injury and he can get back into the lineup shortly. 

    It’s also fair to ask why Godoy would be brought up? Sure. However, he is the only hitter on the 40-man roster, and it would make no sense to take someone off the 40-man roster, add someone else, when it's likely a couple of hitters will be playing again on Tuesday.

    Paddack Leaves with Injury 
    Chris Paddack started the game strong. He struck out the first two batters, but after a couple of soft singles, Chad Pinder lined a single that gave the A’s a 1-0 lead. In the second inning, he had a strikeout, a weak line out, and a ground out. He started the third inning with a strikeout as well. But after Sheldon Neuse hit a single and Sean Murphy doubled, trainer Michael Salazar was summoned to the mound. After a couple of questions, Paddack was removed from the game without even attempting a practice throw off the mound.

    With two runners on, Cody Stashak came into the game. He gave up a single that scored both inherited runners before getting out of the inning. 

    Obviously, we can hope for the best. Paddack has looked really good so far this season. On Sunday, he was sitting 93-95 mph and had a pitch hit 95.8 mph. His breaking ball has been much improved and his changeup remains a really good pitch. 

    In the middle innings, we learned that he was removed from the game with “right elbow inflammation.” That’s pretty vague, and with his history of elbow issues, they will certainly continue to evaluate and do all the needed imaging. 

    Twins starting pitching has been good to this point in the season, much better than expected. They really have had seven starting pitchers on their roster. Sonny Gray just returned from a hamstring injury. Bailey Ober is on the IL with a groin injury. Dylan Bundy is on the Covid-IL. The Twins have good starting pitching depth, but that’s only true until it isn’t. 

    Get ‘em Back
    The best way to respond after a tough top of the third inning, not only falling behind 3-1 but also losing their starting pitcher is to put up some runs. 

    The Twins did just that in the bottom of the third inning. With runners on first and third and one out, Jose Miranda doubled down the left-field line to score one run. Then came Jorge Polanco, and he dropped a 72.5 mph single in front of the left fielder. Miranda read it well and scored from second to give the Twins a 4-3 lead. Polanco now has a nine-game hitting streak.  

    Celebrating Celestino
    A year ago, Gilberto Celestino had barely played above Low-A ball when the Twins were desperate in the outfield and called him up because he was on the 40-man roster.  

    Celestino had ended the 2019 season with eight games in High-A Ft. Myers. He missed the entire 2020 season, though he was at the alternate site. Then he began the 2021 season with 21 games at Double-A Wichita before being called up. No surprise that he struggled. In 23 games last year with the Twins, he hit just .136/.177/.288 (.466). 

    He was set to begin the 2022 season in St. Paul, but he ended up on the Opening Day roster, playing little. He was sent to the Saints, but after just two games, he was needed at Target Field again. And he has been a major contributor. On Sunday, he had three more hits and ended the day hitting .324/.390/.405 (.796) with three doubles. He has at least one hit in eight of his past nine games. Over that time, he is 11-for-27 (.407). 

    With the Twins being cautious with Byron Buxton, Celestino has been given opportunities in center field, and he has done well out there too. 

    Bullpen Big Again 
    While Stashak allowed his inherited runners to score, he was very good. He gave up just one hit over 2 2/3 innings. Caleb Thielbar came in for the sixth inning. He walked the leadoff batter but then struck out the next three hitters. Joe Smith faced three batters in a scoreless seventh frame. Tyler Duffey needed nine pitches to close out the eighth inning. And, Emilio Pagan came in for the ninth inning. Of course, runners got to second and third, but he did not allow a run and recorded the save. 

    When you sweep a series by scores of 2-1, 1-0, and 4-3, the bullpen has to perform under stress, and they have certainly done that! 

    The Defense of Lewis
    Royce Lewis made all the plays this weekend at shortstop. On Sunday, he made a play early in the game, deep in the hole, and threw a perfect, one-hop throw across the diamond to Alex Kirilloff for an out. It's such a smart play, and one we have seen Carlos Correa make a couple of times already this season. In the eighth inning, the leadoff batter hit a slow roller toward short. Lewis charged, bare-handed it, and uncoiled a perfect throw to first for a big out. 

    From what we have seen, both this weekend and in the first month at St. Paul, Royce Lewis can play shortstop in the big leagues. He won't always be perfect. There will be errors, but it's good to know that he can stick there. 

    Lewis had one hit in all three games this weekend. He went 3-for-10 (.300). 

    Do you know when the last time that a Twins' hitter had a hit in each of his first three games? In May of 2019, Luis Arraez did it. 

    What’s Next? 
    The Twins will enjoy a day off at home on Monday. The Twins have been playing well, but the aches and pains are catching up so a day off is really needed. On Tuesday, the Astros will come to town for a three-game series. 

    Tuesday: Joe Ryan (3-1, 1.63 ERA) vs TBA
    Wednesday: Chris Archer (0-0, 3.26 ERA) vs TBA
    Thursday: Josh Winder (2-0, 1.61 ERA) vs TBA  

    Postgame Interviews

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT
                 
    Pagán 0 0 28 0 28 56
    Coulombe 26 0 0 12 0 38
    Thielbar 0 18 0 0 20 38
    Jax 0 15 0 19 0 34
    Stashak 0 0 0 0 34 34
    Duran 0 0 0 31 0 31
    Duffey 0 0 11 0 9 20
    Smith 0 0 6 0 12 18
     

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    Regarding Pagan.......let the FACTS speak for themselves over his last 5 appearances:

    3 saves

    1 hold

    1 blown save

    IP: 4.67

    K's: 7

    BB:  8

    Total pitches thrown:  140/ 28 pitches per outing.

    Summation:  NOT the answer as closer.  Not the answer in"closer by committee."  Time to get him into some lower leverage situations.  Hate to mention it, but back many years ago "RD" had some success in closer role until the wheels totally came off.  Pagan is riding on 2 wheels right now....barely.

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    I was going to comment that I'm really apprehensive about all these one-run wins that could've easily gone the other way, especially against teams like the Athletics, but then I thought about the roster. Correa's out, Buxton's out, Arraez is out, Larnach's out, Garlick's out, and Sano is out (on top of being ineffective). It's pretty great that with all of these guys gone, the Twins have the depth to stay in close games.

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    Great to sweep the As when half of the starting lineup is out. Think about it, of the 8 positions only 4 positions had starters in or available the lineup for more than one game this weekend - Polanco, Kepler, Miranda/Urshela, and Jeffers/Sanchez. Pretty amazing we could beat anybody 3 straight. Great seeing Lewis and Celestino perform well, and Miranda is close. Pitching is really carrying us but the young guys are making a contribution. 

    The only real disappointment is Kirilloff. He looks bad. I'm guessing  a lot of it is phycological with the wrist as much as it is physical.  Godoy is probably the first one to go back to AAA when Arraez is ready but Kiriloff has to be second when Garlick or Larnach can come back. Sad to see, but Kirilloff needs to go back to AAA and really show he's ready before he should be on the 26 man roster. I hope that when Correa is ready to play full time in about a week (DH until then), that Lewis stays to play 3B/DH with Urshela, Miranda stays to play 1B with Arraez and  Celestino stays to be the LF/DH/4thOF tandem with Larnach. Bye bye to Garlick and Sano (60 day injured list) and option Kirilloff.  

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    Assuming that the position players return on schedule and without further incident, Godoy, Kirilloff and Lewis would be optioned to St. Paul in that order IMHO. There just won’t be enough playing time for Lewis if all but Sanó are healthy. 
     

    Kirilloff needs to hit, but he could force the Twins to choose between himself, Garlick and Celestino. 

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    9 hours ago, ashbury said:

    I'll say again, as with the last time he pitched... I don't like Pagan pitching critical innings, in comparison to some theoretical ideal that could be had... but given his limitations, I have some grudging appreciation for his approach.  (As long as it works.)

    In the game thread, I gave the outline of how I expected the inning to go, and except for a flyout to end the game rather than a strikeout (on what should be ball four, I added for amusement) it pretty much went that way.  I believe, for better or for worse, he pitches to a plan - specifically he aims to finish the inning before reaching the top of the order.  Today the first batter was the #5 guy, and he went after him, but (I infer) only in a way to allow the batter to get himself out.  If that works, great, on to the next batter.  But he seems always to have an eye toward the next batter, who will be easier.  And the next one easier still (not taking into account pinch-hitters),  On down to the #8 guy, if he hasn't got two outs yet, then he goes after him.  Ditto for the #9 guy with two outs. 

    You can view it as playing with fire, because such a plan involves being okay with putting on baserunners.  And quite possibly his game plan is not as I have stated - I'm not a mind reader.  But for his past couple of games, it has worked well to check who leads off the ninth, and work out the logistics.  A lot easier on the nerves to accept that he'll put a couple of guys on because he doesn't want to give in. :)

    Good teams will not give him the luxury that Oakland and Baltimore do to play with walks and putting men on base.  I see horrid days ahead if we keep putting him in this position.  

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    The most recent stretch of games show how important having depth in the 40 man, and even a little more, is needed to win in a season.  We are down several starters but still getting wins.  Our pen has been solid, something people thought would be a dumpster fire this season coming into season.  Our starters overall have been very good too, despite using 7 different starters so far. 

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    10 hours ago, Unwinder said:

    I was going to comment that I'm really apprehensive about all these one-run wins that could've easily gone the other way, especially against teams like the Athletics, but then I thought about the roster. Correa's out, Buxton's out, Arraez is out, Larnach's out, Garlick's out, and Sano is out (on top of being ineffective). It's pretty great that with all of these guys gone, the Twins have the depth to stay in close games.

    Perspective is a good thing.

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    Pagan … I don’t think he’s the closer. I don’t think we have one. It’s a traditional mindset that I think most teams are moving away from. But usage … yes, it makes me very nervous seeing Pagan warming in the 9th when the game is close. But it seems that’s all we’ve had is close games. Duran is young and somewhat new to relieving. (He’s a starter … has he been used in a relief role much in his development?) They aren’t going to use him every day. while I don’t know the reasons, I’m sure the Twins have lots of reasons why certain pitchers are being used in certain situations. Could some of this be a result of not having Alcala? Definitely, imo. As much as these close wins could have easily been lost, they weren’t.

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    6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    Good teams will not give him the luxury that Oakland and Baltimore do to play with walks and putting men on base.  I see horrid days ahead if we keep putting him in this position.  

    I'm clicking Like because I don't actually disagree with a word you say.  But your response was not really relevant to my point.  If he's put in to pitch the ninth, I've resolved to enjoy watching how he approaches his work.

    popcorn_stewart.gif.9946e56c27d41c63705c104e9505c8a3.gif

    And then cheer in the unlikely event he succeeds.

    yeahhh.gif.0e21c6b93e569caa43d5662df5e7a5b2.gif

    But my calm over the process stems from not really seeing this as a championship caliber season.  Things change if it starts to look like we can beat the good teams - because I don't think Pagan can.  Farting around while disposing of the likes of Baltimore and Oakland doesn't really register one way or the other.

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    In regards to Pagan, Justin Morneau  made a comment that Pagan was working on a new grip. I know these pitchers work out every day. But if that's why he's struggling with his command then why isn't he in St.Paul trying to get his BB/9 back on track instead of in meaningful regular season games? Before this season his BB/9 ratio was 2.5/9  and now it's over 10. Or is that not an option

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