Twins 3, Orioles 2: Twins Walk Off Orioles on a Buxton Homer

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, 7.0 IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 7K (89 pitches, 64 strikes, 71.9%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (21)
Top 3 WPA: Byron Buxton(.594), Joe Ryan (.315), Luis Arraez (.137)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

An outstanding pitcher’s duel took place at Target Field tonight. Starters Joe Ryan and Spenser Watkins brilliantly dominated their opposing lineups for most of this game, and both teams scored only one run each after seven innings.

The Twins' offense created a clear threat in the first inning, despite coming out of it with only one run. Luis Arraez hit a leadoff double, and shortly after that Minnesota loaded the bases with one out, with a Carlos Correa single and a Max Kepler walk. However, the Twins couldn’t capitalize: Jose Miranda hit a two-out ground ball to left that scored Arráez, but Correa was caught at home by a beautiful assist from left fielder Ryan McKenna, ending the inning.

Watkins would follow that shaky first inning by retiring 15 Twins in a row, making it five straight perfect innings, completely shutting down the Twins' offense. He departed the game after the sixth inning.

Ryan was just as efficient as Watkins, having retired the first eight batters he saw. The only two mistakes he made came both with two outs in the third inning when he gave up a walk to Jorge Mateo, which was followed by an RBI double by Cedric Mullins to tie the game. But that didn’t get to Ryan and he was back on track right away. After the Mullins double, he held the Baltimore bats to a 1-for-8, including a three-strikeout 1-2-3 fifth. After five innings, both offenses had combined for only five total hits.

Twins hitters didn’t only have to deal with a hot night from Watkins, but also some good Oriole defense. Several balls were decently hit but ended up right on the gloves of the well-positioned Baltimore shift. Also, McKenna robbed Arráez of an extra-base hit in the bottom of the sixth with a fantastic diving catch – it had a .036 xBA, according to Statcast.

Ryan completed seven innings, cementing one of his most dominating starts of the year. After 89 pitches, it was up to the bullpen in the eighth to keep this a close game until the offense would spark a game-winning rally. Caleb Thielbar gave up a leadoff double to the man of the night, McKenna, who would later score after a groundout and a fielder’s choice, giving Baltimore its first lead of the night. Juan Minaya, who was called up for the team earlier today, did a fine job getting the final out in the eighth, then pitching a scoreless top of the ninth.

The biggest issue was that, despite a good night from the bullpen, the offense still couldn’t break through. Even after Watkins departed the game, Twins bats still couldn’t get on base, with 21 consecutive Minnesota hitters sent down. With the bullpen keeping this an open game, the Twins got their final chance in the bottom of the ninth.

Facing reliever Jorge Lopez, Arráez broke the streak and reached base with a leadoff single, becoming the first Twins baserunner since the first inning. Then, Buxton stepped up to the plate and, despite falling 0-2 on the count, crushed a hanging slider to deep left to win the game.

What’s Next?
The Twins can secure the series win tomorrow when Sonny Gray (2.17 ERA) duels with Jordan Lyles (4.94 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm CDT.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet