Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base

I am somewhat confused at how so many writers have already put Cron down as a mediocre player with some power.  I am anxious to see him bust out and show that last year was just a start.  I do not have any faith in Austin winning the position and a little ST trade would be good.  I see Rooker at 1B not Kiriloff, but soon there will be a lot of debate about who and where if he succeeds as he seems ready to do. 

Thanks for the article and the talking points. 

I'm chewing my fingernails on OBP...I know there are a lot of Grossman haters, and I don't argue the decision to give him his walking papers (not speedy, poor fielder and not much power), but you can't deny the fact that he got a ton of BBs (he probably would have an even higher OBP if someone below him the line-up could have actually produced a hit now and then). Since Mauer has retired, that doesn't bode very well for OBP. No one is above .350 except for Wade who has consistently had a high OBP.

It would be nice if Polanco could draw a few more walks. Cruz walks about once in two games; Polanco once in three games. After Cruz and Polanco, no one is even above .330 (except for Willians but that is an outlier for the time-being).

Y'know, if this is going to be Kiriloff's position going forward, then this short term fix is fine with me. I was really thinking that they were going to go with Cron & Austin, but with Gonzalez's addition, it's looking like Austin will have to squeeze through waivers to get to AAA, which I don't think the Twins will get him through.

 

I am somewhat confused at how so many writers have already put Cron down as a mediocre player with some power.

Most people are down on it because he was DFA'd by the Rays and the fact that Logan Morrison was a thing last year. I think if we try to ignore those factors, the Twins acquired a pretty good hitter who was a big help to the Rays last season.

BTW, just as they DFA'd Cron, the Rays DFA'd Corey Dickerson over the 2018 offseason, a 28 year old LF coming off of a .815 OPS season. Dickerson went on to hit .300 for the Pirates in 2018 with .805 OPS, 3.8 WAR, and a Gold Glove. Just because the Rays are perceived as a smart team doesn't mean they don't make mistakes, like letting Dickerson go. Cron ain't winning a Gold Glove here, but he certainly could hit over .800 OPS, which would be an improvement from Mauer.

I think Cron ends up looking like another Morrison move.

If he does you have other options here.  I am more optimistic here.

Everything I've read about Marwin Gonzalez focuses on his versatility, but how much first base has he actually played the past two years? In my hazy recollection, he was always more of an outfielder that could also play the infield without embarrassing himself. But what's his glove like at first?

Everything I've read about Marwin Gonzalez focuses on his versatility, but how much first base has he actually played the past two years? In my hazy recollection, he was always more of an outfielder that could also play the infield without embarrassing himself. But what's his glove like at first?

There is literally no reason for the Twins to find out. Cron, Austin, Sano, Garver and Kepler should all play first base before Gonzalez.

There is literally no reason for the Twins to find out. Cron, Austin, Sano, Garver and Kepler should all play first base before Gonzalez.

That's what I had assumed too, which was why I was surprised to see Gonzalez listed as the primary backup option at first in this article. Not to say that would be a bad thing, but I was just puzzled by that choice.
 

With Gonzalez, Torreyes and even Schoop available depending on the circumstances, I hope Tyler Austin is also battling Adrianza for a 25 man spot. I hope he gets as long a look as possible, because the man has plus, plus power. It would be almost a no-brainer for Miami, Detroit or KC to pick him up and play him every day, so he isn't sneaking through, IMO.

It is always puzzling to me when reading about first base that there are several mentions of Kepler.  Yes, he played some first base in the minors, but it wasn't that much...was it?  But he is our best right fielder, one of the best in MLB.  Yes, he does have a second position, but it is center field where he played quite a bit last year. 

I don't understand the constant mention of him at first base which would see someone who isn't as good as he playing right field.  I say keep one of the best right fielders in the game in right field.  Look for others to cover first base.

I think many feel the Twins have a glut of outfielders, so Kepler playing some at 1B helps out with this.  I don't think anyone expects he would play much at first.

Quality, not quantity, wins ball games.

I think Cron ends up looking like another Morrison move.

Only similarities between the two are both are coming off career years, both have good power, and the national experts thought both were solid moves. Cron is a low risk, high reward placeholder. Rooker and Kirilloff will probably be up in September, and hopefully one will take over 1B early in 2020.

I don't see anything wrong with a bench of

Cave

Garver

Gonzalez

Austin

I mean the guys they have playing everyday are young, and as long as the twins don't have any new 80 game suspensions I don't see that much need for an Adrianza or any other light hitting middle infielder. If need be, injury or something you can probably find a guy like that on waivers, or use Gordon in that role if need be? I mean Danny Santana is still getting work, so there are guys out there that can fill that need. Put the bats on the bench until they need that guy.

Cave OF PR

Garver C 1B

Gonzalez pretty much anywhere

Austin 1B DH PH

Everything I've read about Marwin Gonzalez focuses on his versatility, but how much first base has he actually played the past two years? In my hazy recollection, he was always more of an outfielder that could also play the infield without embarrassing himself. But what's his glove like at first?

There is literally no reason for the Twins to find out. Cron, Austin, Sano, Garver and Kepler should all play first base before Gonzalez.

Gonzalez grades pretty well at 1B.  1B and OF are the only positive UZR fielding positions for him.  He has played 191 games at 1B in his career and 55 over the last 2 years.  Sano has played 22, Garver 8, and Kepler 3 (4.1 innings) in their careers.

I don't understand why players like Kepler should be ahead of him at 1B.  Kepler is one of the best defensive right fielders out there.  Moving him to 1B would be a downgrade defensively.  I would argue that any OF prospect should be considered for 1st before unseating Kepler.  Just because Kepler can play 1st doesn't mean he should.

Gonzalez grades similar to Sano at 3rd in UZR and much better than him at 1st.  Seems like the best case here would be to keep Sano at 3rd and Gonzalez at 1st if both are in the lineup.

Then you have Austin who likely won't make the team and Garver who should probably be the primary catcher.

I don't see that much need for an Adrianza or any other light hitting middle infielder. If need be, injury or something you can probably find a guy like that on waivers, or use Gordon in that role if need be? I mean Danny Santana is still getting work, so there are guys out there that can fill that need. Put the bats on the bench until they need that guy.

 

They also have Torreyes available for this situation.

Gonzalez grades pretty well at 1B. 1B and OF are the only positive UZR fielding positions for him. He has played 191 games at 1B in his career and 55 over the last 2 years. Sano has played 22, Garver 8, and Kepler 3 (4.1 innings) in their careers.

 

I don't understand why players like Kepler should be ahead of him at 1B. Kepler is one of the best defensive right fielders out there. Moving him to 1B would be a downgrade defensively. I would argue that any OF prospect should be considered for 1st before unseating Kepler. Just because Kepler can play 1st doesn't mean he should.

 

 

Gonzalez grades similar to Sano at 3rd in UZR and much better than him at 1st. Seems like the best case here would be to keep Sano at 3rd and Gonzalez at 1st if both are in the lineup.

 

Then you have Austin who likely won't make the team and Garver who should probably be the primary catcher.

Gonzalez’s bat doesn’t play at first base. I guess the hope is that it would for Cron, Sano, Garver, Austin and Kepler.

I didn’t look at the numbers, but if Gonzalez is about the same as Sano at third, that’s concerning. Sano has been one of the worst in the league the last two years.

I'm a little surprised to see Kirilloff already be suggested as the long-term solution at 1B; from what I've been reading (particularly here at TD) he grades out to be a solid if unspectacular corner OF with a capable arm and good overall athleticism. And unless Kepler starts hitting a lot more, you lose so much value bumping him all the way down to 1B; you're better off trading him at that point, aren't you?

Rooker seems like he's one of the better options for a longer term solution, assuming Cron doesn't step up and become a serious contender. And I think it's a mistake to write Cron off: He's had 4 seasons as a (mostly) regular. 2016 & 2018 he was a quality starter, 2015 & 2017 he was just a guy. But in the 2nd half of 2017 he raked, and had a very solid 2018, so it's not unreasonable to think that last year's performance is repeatable and if that's who CJ Cron is I think we're going to be awfully happy and not worrying too much about Tyler Austin.

Regardless we'll get more pop and less D with fewer BBs out of 1B this year at a significantly lower price. Dan Barreiro will be thrilled as long as whomever he is gets RBIs and swings at more pitches with runners on base.

I miss Joe Mauer.

So, what do line-ups look like versus RHP and LHP?

OF Buxton

SS Polanco

DH Cruz

OF Rosario

3B Sano

OF Kepler

2B Schoop

1B Cron

C Castro

Those other guys are on the bench

OF Buxton

SS Polanco

DH Cruz

OF Rosario

3B Sano

OF Kepler

2B Schoop

1B Cron

C Castro

 

Those other guys are on the bench

I think it is extremely unlikely that Buxton starts the season as the leadoff hitter.

I think many feel the Twins have a glut of outfielders, so Kepler playing some at 1B helps out with this. I don't think anyone expects he would play much at first.

Yes but I also don't understand why Kepler wouldn't be far down any list for first base. The man needs to be roaming the nether regions, as chilly would say he is a kick ass center fielder. Seriously he not only is in the top few at right field but not many guys are better at center. The guy is smooth out there and always knows right where the wall is. Which might be why he is always available. Not to mention that so far his bat hasn't played at first.