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  • Twins 2, White Sox 1: Twins Catch Break, Win Thriller


    Thiéres Rabelo

    On yet another terrible game by the Twins offense, Bailey Ober and the bullpen kept chances alive until the end. The White Sox made a horrific defensive blunder and allowed Minnesota to steal the game in the eighth.

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    Box Score
    Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (79 pitches, 56 strikes, 70.8%)
    Home Runs: none
    Top 3 WPA: Carlos Correa (.462), Emilio Pagán (.152), Bailey Ober (.104)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
    1950233641_chart(1).png.c4c3c95ded3edd3d0d24bb0aae49b426.png

    Ober pitches solid five innings, but gets no help from the offense
    Earlier today, the Twins official Twitter account sent out the tweet below, which could’ve somehow put a little pressure on young starter Bailey Ober:

    But that’s exactly what didn't happen. The sophomore had a solid start to this game, dominating the White Sox lineup. With solid command, he threw over 72% strikes in the first three innings allowing only two hits.

    Unfortunately for the Twins, Chicago’s starter Michael Kopech also feasted off recently weakened Minnesota’s offense through the first portion of the game. Luis Arráez opened up the first inning with a leadoff single, but Carlos Correa grounded into a double play immediately afterward. In that same inning, Jorge Polanco reached on a walk but was caught trying to steal second, ending the threat.

    The first man in scoring position of the game was a Twin. Trevor Larnach hit a two-out double in the second, but Kopech followed that up by retiring the next eight batters, including four strikeouts.

    Ober pitched a clean fourth inning, but the White Sox got to him in the fifth, with Andrew Vaughn smashing a leadoff home run to center to make it 1-0 Chicago. Ober got into a bad spot when Reese McGuire followed that homer with a double, prompting an immediate mound visit by Wes Johnson. That helped him get back on track and he retired the next three batters to limit the damage to just the one run.

    Ober’s night was done after that inning, with Griffin Jax coming in to pitch the sixth. With tonight’s outing, Ober lowered his season ERA to 2.81 and the Twins rotation continues to be one of the best in the majors. You know, as we all have predicted a month ago, right?

    Jax, Bullpen perform brilliantly; wild defense from Chicago gives Twins the lead
    Griffin Jax came in trying to keep this a one-run game and he couldn’t have done a better job. He threw two scoreless and hitless frames on 29 pitches – 24 sliders (83%). He pitched around a leadoff walk in the sixth and went on to retire the next six batters, causing them to swing and miss 46% of the time.

    After a rough outing in Kansas City on Tuesday that cost the Twins a win, Tyler Duffey got a much-needed clean inning in the eighth. He retired the top of Chicago’s lineup in order on 13 pitches, including two strikeouts, giving the offense a chance to redeem itself in the bottom of the inning. Could they do it?

    Well, yes and no. The inning started out atrociously for Minnesota, with Miguel Sanó and Nick Gordon quickly retired on ten pitches. Ryan Jeffers stepped up to the plate and, also quickly, was down 0-2 in the count. Suddenly, things started to change in a wild way.

    In the third pitch of the at-bat, Jeffers crushed a ground-rule double to left-center, bringing Arráez to the plate. Luis worked a nice six-pitch walk to keep the inning alive and bring Correa to the plate. Slumping really hard on the season so far, “C4” swung on the second pitch and grounded to the hole in deep shortstop, enough to score Jeffers. But to make things better, Tim Anderson and José Abreu made a couple of awful throws that allowed Arráez to also score and Correa to make second. (Just watch this...)

    Emilio Pagán was brought in to pitch the ninth and try to earn the save, but things didn’t start well for him. He gave up a leadoff double to Eloy Jiménez and loaded the bases with only one out. After a hard-fought, nine-pitch at-bat, he got McGuire to pop out. Then, he almost lost Jake Burger for the last out but managed to strike him out on a full count.

    What’s Next? 
    Game two of the series is tomorrow at 3:05 pm CDT, when Dylan Bundy (2-0, 0.87 ERA) tries to keep his hot start going facing righty Vince Velasquez (0-1, 4.15 ERA). Byron Buxton is expected to be back in the lineup.

    Postgame Interviews

     

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      MON TUE WED THU FRI TOT
                 
    Jax 47 0 0 0 29 76
    Pagán 0 0 0 9 34 43
    Duran 23 0 0 15 0 38
    Romero 0 30 0 0 0 30
    Duffey 0 15 0 0 13 28
    Smith 6 2 0 16 0 24
    Stashak 0 0 21 0 0 21
    Thielbar 0 0 15 0 0 15
    Winder 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Coulombe 0 0 0 0 0 0

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    4 hours ago, Melissa said:

    Yep, all over baseball. Observers like Gleeman here and at the Athletic speculate about reasons: dead ball? Humidor now used at every park? Weather? Shortened spring training? Fans of most teams are feeling the same pain.

    It sounds like humidors will effect offense in both ways depending on the local weather, but they are likely exacerbating how much the cool early weather is suppressing offense. This might be a desirable effect in the playoffs where close game tension is a plus, but right now it seems to be contributing to a general lack of excitement on offense.

    I think there are of course other continuing trends too. Pitching is inarguably better than it's ever been. Old-timers will bristle at this, but I'd also argue that defense is better than it's ever been too. The approach of hitters certainly has some role, though I think this gets over-emphasized when pitching has just gotten so good.

    I never thought homers were the problem.

    Bring back the juice!

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    Defense is better, and batting averages are suppressed, by the shift.  It will be very interesting to see what happens next year when the shift is banned.  Kepler might pick up 20-30 points in batting average.  Another reason not to trade him now when his value is low.

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    34 minutes ago, wabene said:

    That was the most egregious theft of victory against the Dirty Sox in the history of baseball. This is the kind of thing that can swing fortunes.

    IMHO We didn't steal anything - This has more to do with inept play on the sox part and lazy play giving the game away.  Neither team executed well in the late innings, and the Sox (more specifically Abreu) made two blunders on one play to give the game away (which we in turn tried our hardest to give right back the next inning).  Had Abreu played the ball and not go for any heroics there is a good chance its a tie game going into the 9th.  Even if he made the same initial play, if he had simply run the ball back in instead of making a throw that wasn't necessary (something EVERY infielder is supposed to learn in little league) the inning continues tied at 1.

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    2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

    He didn’t give in but I do wonder if you write the same comment if that last pitch is called a ball and the batter walks.

    Fair question. After pondering for all of ten seconds, I think think I would feel the same way, but would be too polite to post it. :) I've posted before that I think he's an average reliever at best, at this stage of his career. This game really defines him for me.

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    2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

    Yep, I think the ump made the right call on that pitch, but maybe the right call was putting Jeffers into the lineup at the start, instead of Sanchez. Not sure the reason, but Sanchez has been catching Ober, so we saw Jeffers instead. Not only did Jeffers get a timely hit, and scored the tying run, he made a good block in the 9th, and his set up and framing allowed the ump to actually see the ball to make the correct call. Kudos to Rocco for putting Jeffers in for the game.

    Just offering a different perspective. Maybe Baldelli gets some credit here instead of the Twins winning in spite of him.

     

    I think Sanchez has been catching Ober in part because of how he works up in the zone, making it easier for Sanchez? Sanchez's problem has been blocking pitches low and low and away and he's probably going to work better with a pitcher who likes to work up in the zone. Just a guess, but Sanchez has looked better defensively with the Twins than advertised to be sure. Some of it may be in how they've deployed him and who with?

    Jeffers made some really nice defensive plays last night and was working hard to try and frame some pitches up. Worked to our advantage.

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    I don’t know much about how WPA is determined. Surprised that Pagan had the second highest WPA last night. I would have given him a negative WPA for the nail biter he created by issuing 2 BB and for the 2 or 3 balls in the dirt with the bases loaded. Had he pitched a clean 9th, would his WPA have been the same. 

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    7 minutes ago, Eris said:

    I don’t know much about how WPA is determined. Surprised that Pagan had the second highest WPA last night. I would have given him a negative WPA for the nail biter he created by issuing 2 BB and for the 2 or 3 balls in the dirt with the bases loaded. Had he pitched a clean 9th, would his WPA have been the same. 

    For his total WPA, it only matters where his outing started and where it ended. The path he took to get there doesn't matter.

    In the end he gave up zero runs in the 9th inning so that was a positive for their chances of winning the game (up to 100% from something like 80% to 90% at the start of the inning).

    When he loaded the bases with 1 out the Sox were pretty likely to score so his WPA would have been negative at that point. Since he stayed in the game to clean up his own mess he still gets all the credit for the scoreless inning.

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    1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

    For his total WPA, it only matters where his outing started and where it ended. The path he took to get there doesn't matter.

    In the end he gave up zero runs in the 9th inning so that was a positive for their chances of winning the game (up to 100% from something like 80% to 90% at the start of the inning).

    When he loaded the bases with 1 out the Sox were pretty likely to score so his WPA would have been negative at that point. Since he stayed in the game to clean up his own mess he still gets all the credit for the scoreless inning.

    Well said.  I feel like adding, the same "criticism" could be leveled against good ol' ERA - at the end of the inning, his ERA for the game is 0.00 just as if he had pitched 1-2-3.

    Different stats have different purposes, and one big divider is "descriptive" versus "predictive".    Even though WPA is modern, for me it sits directly in the "descriptive" category that tries to tell you what happened, in the context of thousands of other games in history where a home team took a one-run lead into the top of the ninth.  At the end of that adventure, Pagan collects his winning-probability-added, for getting that clutch final out (and the maybe-more-clutch popout after the string of foul balls).  The ninth isn't easy, even if many of the top closers lead you to think so.

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