Trevor Larnach: The Breakout Tour

Trevor Larnach's name can be found in many mock trade proposals from last offseason. The imperfect but enjoyable MLB Trade Simulator put Larnach’s value in a solid range, naturally pushing Twins fans to float the 25-year-old outfielder as a trade candidate to acquire viable starting pitching. The Twins were desperate for starters (and still are), but they kept Larnach despite moving 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty, Josh Donaldson, Mitch Garver, and Ben Rortvedt in a wild post-lockout frenzy. 

Larnach, who won the Twins’ Minor League Hitter of the Year Award in 2019, is proving them right. He’s produced 1.4 f-Wins Above Replacement, tied with Max Kepler for the most on the team through the end of May. Larnach hit .299/.375/.515 in his first two months, a far cry from the .167/.275/.205 line he posted in the second half of 2021. He’s walking in nearly 12% of his plate appearances and chasing only 23% of pitches outside the zone. 

Pointing out retrospective injuries after a tough season can seem like low-hanging fruit. It checks out for Larnach, who reportedly dealt with a hand injury in the second half of last year. He consistently posted great exit velocities in the minors, and his approach is translating to the majors, especially now that he’s healthy. 

Before he tallied two hits and a walk in the doubleheader, Larnach’s average exit velocity was 91.6 MPH. That’s a top-30 mark in baseball and higher than Freddie Freeman, Bo Bichette, and Manny Machado. 

While Larnach is producing in a meaningful way at the plate, his most shocking development is in the field. Larnach entered Tuesday with seven Defensive Runs Saved, tied with Kyle Tucker for the second-most among MLB outfielders. His arm in left has played exceptionally well, and the Twins have felt comfortable enough to start him in right. He’s been an all-around contributor. 

Larnach’s emergence is far from insignificant. As currently constructed, the Twins have an offense built around Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez. As Buxton struggles and Correa heads to the Covid IL, the Twins require an offensive boost. Larnach provided it in the first inning of Tuesday’s game one win, slashing a two-run double that would’ve been a homer in 28 of 30 ballparks.

It’s not just for right now that Larnach’s production is vital. When Buxton returns to form and Correa is healthy, the Twins could have a great top-five in their lineup, with Gary Sánchez and Max Kepler providing depth in the six and seven spots. Add in Gio Urshela, and the Twins’ lineup becomes very deep and challenging to handle. Defensively, Larnach, Buxton, and Kepler across the outfield has a chance to be one of the best units in baseball. 

It can be unwise to slap the breakout stamp on a season after 100 plate appearances, but nothing about Larnach’s success seems fluky. He’s a former top-100 prospect who hit .290/.373/.452 in 190 Minor League games. He was excellent before the hand injury in 2021, and he’s 25 years old with more comfort at the Major League level. It’s the perfect storm. 

It was easy to see why Larnach could be expendable to the outfield-heavy Twins, but he’s showing why those trades only happened on the simulator.