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  • Trade Deadline: What if the Twins Do Nothing?


    Seth Stohs

    Happy Trade Deadline Day, Twins Fans! This should be a fun day as the Twins find themselves Buyers at the deadline for the first time in a decade. I fully expect the Twins to acquire at least one pitcher before today’s 3 p.m. (central time) deadline, but what if they don’t? What if they stand pat?

    Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today

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    On Tuesday night, Cleveland finally traded All Star starting pitcher Trevor Bauer. Typically that move would be seen as the team selling, but in this case, I do believe that they got better. They have pitching, and seem to keep calling pitchers up who do well. Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac are two guys who fit into that mold. They also should be getting Corey Kluber back in the near future.

    Their need was offense, and they added two powerful outfielders in Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes in the three-team swap. They also added LHP Logan Allen, a Top 100 prospect, and two more minor leaguers.

    It was a very creative move for Cleveland. The Twins were very creative in their acquisition of Sergio Romo over the weekend. Not only did the Twins receive the veteran reliever, but they also received hard-throwing RHP Chris Vallimont and a Player to be Named Later for slugging first base prospect Lewin Diaz.

    On its own, the Twins made a really, creative, savvy move to improve their bullpen and improve the team. Twins fans have generally felt that the trade was good for the Twins, though that thought always comes with the “as long as it isn’t the only move they make by the deadline.”

    But what if it is? What if Sergio Romo is the only player that the Twins add? What will it mean? Here are my thoughts.

    DISAPPOINTMENT

    First and foremost, Twins fans will and rightfully should feel disappointment. On the basic level, it’s always fun to acquire talent. It doesn’t even have to be elite talent, but just make the team better. Let's just say, #TwinsTwitter will not handle it well, for sure!

    On another level, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have consistently said that when the Twins window to compete for championships opens, they will pounce. Well, the window is wide open. This team has the talent to compete, not only for the American League Central title but also for a World Series. They have won two of six games against the Yankees this year, and probably should have won two more of those games. They won four of their seven matchups with the Astros this year. They currently have an edge on Cleveland this year too. Those are the top teams in the American League, and the team should absolutely feel like they can compete for an American League pennant. And hey, if you get to the World Series, you have a chance.

    So Twins fans will absolutely have every right to be disappointed and even upset if nothing is done.

    HOWEVER…

    This is a very good team as is, as shown by their performance so far this year against the top teams in the league. Their lineup can compete with anyone. They can slug with the best. Pitching has been the issue although even that hasn’t been as bad as we may think. The starters rank in the top the top third of the league in most statistics. Some of that is because their #4 (Perez) and #5 (Pineda) have been better than most 4s and 5s around the league. Jose Berrios is approaching Ace level. Jake Odorizzi was an All Star for his strong start, but he has been more inconsistent of late. Kyle Gibson’s been good at times but also a bit inconsistent. Not adding a starter would just mean that these guys would need to step it up down the stretch. But would the Twins have a top three or top four that you could feel good about going into the playoffs?

    And the bullpen has been better than expected, though a lot of that is because of Taylor Rogers. Sergio Romo stepped in as the 8th inning guy last night in his Twins debut. Tyler Duffey has returned to an intriguing bullpen option. Ryne Harper has been a big surprise. Trevor May was doing well until the 0-2 curveball in Cleveland, but he has the stuff to dominate and will need to find that again.

    And then some young guys. Cody Stashak had a moment in the Yankees series. Sean Poppen reeling off 96-97 mph fastballs with a strong slider could be great for the team down the stretch. And if Will Smith and Felipe Vasquez are unavailable, I don’t think there is an available left-handed reliever that I would feel better about than giving Lewis Thorpe an opportunity. And Devin Smeltzer is available as well. The concern with them is their lack of MLB experience, obviously.

    In addition, Fernando Romero has been much improved of late in Rochester. And as it appears the odds of Cody Allen helping the Twins down the stretch is waning, flamethrower Brusdar Graterol returned to the mound on Monday for his first rehab appearance. Maybe he and his 101-mph fastball can help. Jorge Alcala and his triple-digit fastball pitched out of the bullpen in his most-recent outing.

    SUMMARY

    So, while I still think it is very likely that the Twins make one or two moves before the trade deadline, and this article will be all for naught, it is important for Twins fans to stand by a team that has put themselves in this position. Absolutely, be disappointed that nothing was done, but hopefully you’ll be able to quickly shift your attention back to the fact that this team, as it is currently put together, can win the division. And, if you are under the opinion (as I mostly am) that the playoffs are mostly a crapshoot, then you should still believe that the Twins can win in the playoffs too.

    All that said… Come On, Twins… Make a Move!

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    Both of the recently acquired relievers have a k per 9 below MLB average.

     

    True, but not the whole picture:

     

     

     

    MLB Average  9.23 k/9   3.76 bb/9   4.48 ERA   4.50 FIP   4.55 xFIP

    AL average     9.12 k/9    3.74 bb/9   4.43 ERA  4.52 FIP    4.60 xFIP

    Dyson:            8.29 k/9    1.24 bb/9  2.47 ERA   2.74 FIP    3.40 xFIP

    Romo:             7.91 k/9    3.03 bb/9  3.49 ERA   3.90 FIP    5.20 xFIP

     

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    True, but not the whole picture:

     

     

     

    MLB Average  9.23 k/9   3.76 bb/9   4.48 ERA   4.50 FIP   4.55 xFIP

    AL average     9.12 k/9    3.74 bb/9   4.43 ERA  4.52 FIP    4.60 xFIP

    Dyson:            8.29 k/9    1.24 bb/9  2.47 ERA   2.74 FIP    3.40 xFIP

    Romo:             7.91 k/9    3.03 bb/9  3.49 ERA   3.90 FIP    5.20 xFIP

     

    I care more about the strikeouts, particularly when Sano is fielding grounders over my right shoulder.

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    Getting strikeouts is important for middle relievers. If they are brought in with runners on, simply allowing contact may allow them to score.

    I think Romo and Dyson means that Rodgers becomes the primary fireman. He's the guy you're going to see with runners on. Romo, Dyson, Harper, and Duffey seem to be guys who can get that clean inning fairly consistently. 

     

    You might see Dyson in a DP situation, given his GB tendencies. 

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    We may be able to hold an occasional lead in the postseason now, but will we ever get one with this starting rotation?

    Boy, what a silly trade deadline re: starters.

     

    Stroman and Bauer go to non-contenders. Minor, Bumgarner, Wheeler, and others stay put.

     

    Only Greinke felt like a normal move.

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    ALDS game 5. 7th inning. Top of the Yankees lineup coming up in a 2-2 ballgame. Now pitching for the Twins...Lewis Thorpe. Still confident? 

    In this scenario, Thorpe is coming in before Romo, Dyson and Rogers? OK.

    He did give up one run in 2 2/3 inning last week to the Yankees. There are worse options. 

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    What a weird deadline. Yankees and Red Sox did virtually nothing to improve their pitching. Houston traded for EVERYONE. Mets and Reds (non contenders) trade for two of the best starters on the market. Wheeler, Bumgarner, Vazquez, Minor don't get traded.

     

    Just weird

    This is where I’m at right now.

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    Another thing I’d like to add is while we should strive to be like the Tampa Bay Rays our minor league development hasn’t been great. Yes, it’s looking more like some of our position players are developing nicely (Polanco, Garver, Rosario, and Kepler), yet we’ve only sorta developed 2 quality starting pitchers in Berríos and Gibson (and Gibson is a stretch considering he was a potential #2-3 starter who is more or less a #4-5 starter). If we were actually better at developing talent I’d feel better of standing pat.

     

    Why do we want to be like Tampa Bay? What have they ever won? The goal is not to spend the least amount of dollars per win; the goal is to spend as much as is necessary for the most wins and the FINAL win.

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    I personally am happy with the two deadline deals. At the beginning of the year, I thought we were 2 pen arms away from being a legitimate playoff series contender.  I would have rather had Kimbrel, but Dyson and Romo are solid pieces and it does look like one or more of the AAA guys, or May, can be a shut down 6th-7th inning guy. 

     

    Making a huge splash is fun, but nobody expected the Twins to do that and I'm not sure I would want the Twins to do the Greinke deal the Astros did. 

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    This reminds me of 2001. The Twins traded for a closer and a starter a couple days before the deadline. But getting the starter cost them their leadoff hitter, Matt Lawton. Ortiz and Guzman were already hurt. Doug Mientkiewicz remembered that he was Doug Mientkiewicz after doing an impersonation of Rod Carew for two months. The offense was scuffling, bad. The common wisdom (as I recall, the main messgage board in those days was on espn) was that the Twins were going to trade away some surplus OF prospects for Shannon Stewart or Brian Hunter.

    Suffice to say, that didn’t happen.

     

    Here's a funny story. I used to tape a lot of games on this thing called a VCR and I watched a bunch of them about ten years ago before my VCR died a tragic death. One of the games was from June or July of 2001 against Detroit and Dick says, "The Tigers will likely try to move Todd Jones at the trade deadline but looking at his numbers I'm not sure they'll find any takers."

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