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  • Trade Deadline Thread: Who Are Your Favorite Bullpen Targets?


    Cooper Carlson

    It is July 25 and we are now just six days from the trade deadline. There has still been no real impact moves lately so those could be coming any day now, but it is likely to all happen within the final 48 hours. Today I’ll be discussing a package deal from the Royals I would like, as well as giving some links to recent rumors. Head down to the comments and discuss.

    Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    During the Twins game last night, multiple reporters had an interesting quote from Derek Falvey about the state of salary/payroll during this deadline.

    https://twitter.com/DerekWetmore/status/1154202862907510785?s=20

    So the Twins would be willing to take on some money, you say? Well there is one particular reliever who came to mind for a lot of Twins fans including myself, and that is the Kansas City Royals reliever Ian Kennedy. The 34-year-old right-hander is under team control next season but he is owed roughly $16.5 million for that year. The Royals might still maintain some of the salary but the Twins would still be paying quite a bit. That shouldn’t be too big of a problem though, because Kennedy is actually a really good pitcher.

    He is in his first season as a relief pitcher after twelve up and down seasons as a starter. In 41 appearances this year, Kennedy owns a 3.48 ERA, 2.23 FIP(!), 10.89 K/9, and 2.18 BB/9. He is a solid right hander who will be able to share high leverage innings with Taylor Rogers and as a righty to pair with Rogers, the Twins could utilize their matchup approach to the bullpen even more.

    Of course if I’m calling, texting, facetiming or writing letters to Kansas City I am looking for a second player to pair with Kennedy, and that would be Lucas Duda. That is a joke, the real second piece the Twins should target is left handed reliever Jake Diekman.

    A lot of you will be turned off of him after I say this, but I would call him a left handed Trevor May. Diekman has a very good fastball reaching 96 mph that hitters are hitting just .185 against to go with an outstanding 13.28 K/9, but his BB/9 is a frustrating 5.09 so he will either strike you out or walk you. He is just a good pitcher you can put in for the sixth or seventh inning to safely get you to the big guns to finish the game.

    So what do you think? Would this package from the Royals be good enough to fix the Twins bullpen? Who are your favorite bullpen pieces expected to be available?

    Discuss that with me in the comments along with some of these other rumors in the deadline discussion.

    Deadline Discussion

    • Fangraphs put out an article predicting what each team does at the deadline. They have Twins going to the Giants to acquire Madison Bumgarner and
      for the costly price of Brusdar Graterol and Trevor Larnach, the Twins #3 and #4 prospects respectively. While both are good pitchers, I don’t see the Twins dealing two of their best prospects for a rental starter and a reliever. What do you think?

    • CBS Sports ranked the 50 best trade candidates for this upcoming deadline. The Twins are listed as fits for Austin Brice (#28), Tony Watson (#23), Sam Dyson (#22), Alex Colome (#21), Chris Martin (#20), Shawn Kelley (#19), Ken Giles (#15), Kirby Yates (#13), Trevor Bauer (#6), Mike Minor (#5) and Madison Bumgarner (#4). Who would you like to see from this list?

    • Here at Twins Daily, Seth posted the first Trade Deadline Thread with some other interesting links from Ken Rosenthal among other posts. Also at Twins Daily, Matt and I gave our perfect trade deadline scenarios on our Leading Off Podcast, so just skip to the 46 minute mark for that.

    I guarantee there is no better place to find everything you need for the Twins and their upcoming trade deadline than right here at Twins Daily. Now come join me in the comments and let’s discuss the Royals package deal, the Mad Bum/Sam Dyson idea and the many other players linked to the Twins!

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    After the Blake Parker experiment, I don't think I could stand another reliever who walks so many hitters. Even the guys from AAA like Thorpe and Stashak are upgrades because at least they throw strikes.

     

    Yeah, I've seen enough of Diekman to believe that Twins fans will be ready to roll him out the door before the week is up. If people are fed up with May and his command, they'd lose their minds with Diekman. I don't see him as an upgrade to what the team has now.

     

    Plus, he's historically been pretty LOOGYish, and I don't want a LOOGY, this team needs guys who can go a full inning or two.

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    The plan is for the main topic of conversation for tomorrow's thread to be on starting pitcher, so make sure to check back in.

    I think we should petition Brock to create a bull pen or pitching forum given the attention it's gotten of late.

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    ... now that San Francisco is over .500 and just three back in the wild card, I'm not sure he'll be available.

    I have read this on more than one occasion about San Francisco's status here, and I disagree very much. It took going 16-4 this month in order to say they're above .500 by one game. Why on Earth would they value a 20 game hot streak over the first 80 games when they were a terrible baseball team?

     

    Would you advocate the Twins keeping their players if they were in the same situation? I'm willing to bet, because we saw this in 2015/2017, there would be articles here not to buy into the hot streak and sell.

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    I have read this on more than one occasion about San Francisco's status here, and I disagree very much. It took going 16-4 this month in order to say they're above .500 by one game. Why on Earth would they value a 20 game hot streak over the first 80 games when they were a terrible baseball team?

    Would you advocate the Twins keeping their players if they were in the same situation? I'm willing to bet, because we saw this in 2015/2017, there would be articles here not to buy into the hot streak and sell.

    In my eyes, that particular Giants team is well-suited to make one last run. Why not? Will it work? Who knows, but once their rebuild starts, there's a good chance it'll be long and painful. Plus, they can just extend MadBum a qualifying offer and collect the extra draft pick, that'll help them down the road.

     

    I could see it either way, but I'd bet there are a lot more Giants fans that want them to add than there are who want them to sell.

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    True, that makes sense but Parker didn't strike people out to counter the walks and Diekman is one of the better strikeout relievers. He is 11th in K/9 in all of baseball.

    Diekman is indeed 11th among qualified relievers in K/9 at Fangraphs -- but only 21st in K%. His K/9 is inflated a bit by the extra batters he faces (walks).

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    In my eyes, that particular Giants team is well-suited to make one last run. Why not? Will it work? Who knows, but once their rebuild starts, there's a good chance it'll be long and painful. Plus, they can just extend MadBum a qualifying offer and collect the extra draft pick, that'll help them down the road.

     

    I could see it either way, but I'd bet there are a lot more Giants fans that want them to add than there are who want them to sell.

    There were Twins fans too that wanted to add. If the Giants stand pat it's only going to make their rebuild more painful. They were 11 games under 500 through the first 80 games. That doesn't sound like a team ready to make a final run.

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    Twins can't solve their pitching situation in one Trade Deadline.

     

    Most important corollary: they aren't going to win the World Series this year.

     

    So, if those two premises hold, the question becomes: what to do?

     

    You look to build for the future, and to bolster this year's playoff run, in order to gain some experience for the young guys who will be there in '20-'21-'22.

     

    But, you don't sell out to win this year, and you keep the cream 'o crop that will be needed in the next three years.

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    Living in Giant territory there is no question that fans would expect them to add.

     

    They have to a better job of identifying and developing talent but teams with resources like the Giants do not need to tear down in order to return to competitive play.

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    I have read this on more than one occasion about San Francisco's status here, and I disagree very much. It took going 16-4 this month in order to say they're above .500 by one game. Why on Earth would they value a 20 game hot streak over the first 80 games when they were a terrible baseball team?

    Would you advocate the Twins keeping their players if they were in the same situation? I'm willing to bet, because we saw this in 2015/2017, there would be articles here not to buy into the hot streak and sell.

    Yeah but the Giants won 3 World Series the last of which was with an 88 win team and now franchise icons Bumgarner and Bochey are performing their swan song. They’ve got enough track record, history and emotion to buy in right now.

     

    Forgive me if I’m wrong, but weren’t you one of the fans unhappy with last year’s Twins sell off?

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    Here is an interesting article on the Mets Edwin Diaz

    https://nypost.com/2019/07/24/how-mets-can-salvage-this-edwin-diaz-mess/

    Ha, yeah that one says the Mets should sell him at a “discount” which in his mind would be similar to the four prospect package (which included top prospects Frazier and Sheffield) Cleveland gave up for Andrew Miller PLUS another top 30 prospect. I’d normally presume the author meant organizational top 30, but with a New York publication, it’s quite possible he meant league top 30.

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    I want the Twins to trade with the Royals for Ian Kennedy and Jake Diekmann, with the Twins taking on all of Kennedy’s salary. I'd like to see a package built around Javier or Gordon with some of our prospering recent mid-round draft picks and guys we traded for last year attached (Steer, Celestino etc.)

     

    I just don't think it’s worth trading the big prospects this year, the market is too wild. None of the high-end guys shift the Twins chances that much since the Stros and Yankees are both really good. I know that not all prospects will turn out but I think they're likely to have more value next year. The Twins have a 5 year window here at least, let's not close it by tweaking out in year 1.

     

    And Ian Kennedy and Diekmann solve the Twins needs. They can pay Kennedy's salary as ownership shows its willing to spend. Kennedy can be paired with Rogers as a late inning guy that Rocco can match up. Diekmann is the lefty that the Twins need for the 6th.

     

    A pen of Rogers, Kennedy, Harper, Diekmann, Duffey, May and two of Stashak/Thorpe/Stewart/Romero/Smeltzer/Litttel isn't lights out but it can get the job done. This team will go as far as its hitting takes it.

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    I would be fine with acquiring Hudson, I can't imagine he'd be too expensive as a rental.

     

    But who are my favorites, you ask? Hmmm... Will Smith would probably be #1, but it seems the Giants aren't going to sell now. I'd love Ken Giles and I like Marcus Stroman... I also like Kirby Yates and Shane Greene a decent amount. I think Ian Kennedy would be a great add, his numbers have been fantastic. Mike Minor would be a great starting option to go after too.

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    Yeah but the Giants won 3 World Series the last of which was with an 88 win team and now franchise icons Bumgarner and Bochey are performing their swan song. They’ve got enough track record, history and emotion to buy in right now.

     

    Forgive me if I’m wrong, but weren’t you one of the fans unhappy with last year’s Twins sell off?

    I was. But the Twins were never 11 games under .500 at any point during the years I wanted them to add.

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    Preferencing my comments by saying I am a fan and believer in Thorpe, and always have been. I believe he could be the Twins 5th SP at some point next season, depending on how things ultimately shake out. And I admit to a man crush on Smeltzer. I dont think the Dodgers knew what they had, but the Twins sure do. I'd like both of them to continue to be SP options. But this year, and going forward, you want the best arms on your club you can have!

     

    I actually really like the dual trade proposal with KC. Makes an awful lot of sense. I am not opposed to bringing in a LH, but I feel what this team needs is a pair of RHRP we can count on.

     

    The market is so slow, and so strange right now, I'm just not convinced we are going to see the major moves some speculate and wish for. I think, if it happens, it will be in the last 48hrs.

     

    I'd pick up 40-50% of Kennedy's contract. KC gets salary relief and a couple of decent prospects outside our top 10, IMO. I would think something like Romero or Alcala and a young OF, (more than a few options), would get it done. And that might even be an overpay.

     

    And I honestly don't know who the second RH would be, as there are so many viable options mentioned. Maybe, as Tom mentioned, someone like Mychal Givens or Scott Oberg, this year's version of Ryan Pressly. But I'm still betting on someone on the "2nd level" list who is controllable and who the FO likes.

     

    For the most part, the FO seems to have a pretty good eye for what/who they like.

     

    Back to the beginning comments I made, I'd roll with Thorpe and/or Smeltzer as my 2nd LH option. Either or both could return to starting next season.

     

    You pick up some salary, trade 4 guys from the system, all of which are probably out of the top 10, and bring in a pair of RHRP that will each be back for 2020 at least.

     

    Your pen:

     

    Rogers

    Kennedy

    TBD trade

    May

    Harper

    Duffey

    Littell

    Thorpe/Smeltzer

     

    And the beauty is you still have guys like Poppen and Stashak to roll up and down with Duffey and Littell and Thorpe/Smeltzer for those last couple of spots playing the option game. You might even be able to run with a 7 man pen to keep an extra position player when everyone is healthy.

     

    The Twins have one of the best and deepest rotations in MLB. I remain unconvinced any major SP is going to be available. In fact, I think Strohman may be the only one. And while he is nice, would he really be an upgrade???

     

    Hey, if a TOP RP is indeed available because someone decides to punt on 2019, that's great. But in this scenario, you pick up some salary, (which you can afford), deepen and improve the pen with 2020 in mind, ride the Rochester shuttle for the last couple of spots with some nice looking young arms, and still keep your top 10 prospect list intact for next season, the offseason, or in case a special SP is actually made available NOW.

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    I would be fine with acquiring Hudson, I can't imagine he'd be too expensive as a rental.

     

    But who are my favorites, you ask? Hmmm... Will Smith would probably be #1, but it seems the Giants aren't going to sell now. I'd love Ken Giles and I like Marcus Stroman... I also like Kirby Yates and Shane Greene a decent amount. I think Ian Kennedy would be a great add, his numbers have been fantastic. Mike Minor would be a great starting option to go after too.

    I don’t think Hudson would be much different than Parker. His low ERA is without foundation. The peripherals suggest he has not pitched well. The Twins need someone that they have confidence late in a playoff game.

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    Preferencing my comments by saying I am a fan and believer in Thorpe, and always have been. I believe he could be the Twins 5th SP at some point next season, depending on how things ultimately shake out.

     

    Back to the beginning comments I made, I'd roll with Thorpe and/or Smeltzer as my 2nd LH option. Either or both could return to starting next season.

    I'd pick up 40-50% of Kennedy's contract. KC gets salary relief and a couple of decent prospects outside our top 10, IMO. 

     

    The Twins have one of the best and deepest rotations in MLB. I remain unconvinced any major SP is going to be available. In fact, I think Strohman may be the only one. And while he is nice, would he really be an upgrade???
     

     

    Glad you liked that deal. Addressing these in point form.

     

    1.) Also been a fan of Thorpe for like four years, he's been my guy for awhile. Only thing you're wrong on is that he MAY be the 5th starter next year. I think he's going to be a 3/4 and there's no maybe about it. He has the stuff and the makeup and the Twins have some openings. He's only going to get better.

     

    2.) You are right that maybe Diekmann is unnecessary. I was in on him before Smeltzer and Thorpe both look viable. I'd be fine rolling with them as a second lefty, perhaps having the two of them run the shuttle in tandem.

     

    3.) I want to take all of that salary. Maybe someone will show how paying Kennedy $16 million next year impacts the Twins ability to fill pitching holes or extend people but I remember them having little to no money committed to next year. KC is a cheap club rebuilding, that salary is a big selling point. If they take that, I could see it being a Romero-type alone. It'd be nice to save Javier/Gordon for the offseason or next deadline when prices are lower.

     

    4.) I don't know about this. I agree its deep but its nowhere near the best. The Cubs, Indians, Astros, and Dodgers (just to name a few) have way better rotations. Berrios is the #1 but who would start Game 2? I can talk myself into any of the 4. Gibby based on last year, Pineda based on last few starts, Perez based on beginning of this year, Odo based on veteran status. I think you are right that there's no one who is substantially better than they guys we have now that MadBum is likely off the market and the Mets are going to demand so much that they trade no one. If they got a starting pitcher 07/31 for low-tier prospects, I'd be okay. But agreed that I don't see it as a priority. One solid reliever, maybe two if you get good deals. No need for a "closer"

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