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  • Thrift Shop: 3 Sneaky Finds by the Front Office


    Nick Nelson

    If the Minnesota Twins are going to return to contention, it'll be primarily on the strength of their nucleus, which needs to rebound after a down year in 2018. But getting over the top will require a full team effort. That means identifying the right complementary pieces.

    Finding quality supporting parts was a continual struggle as the Twins failed to push their last formidable core past the first round of the playoffs. But this reconfigured front office has managed to add a few potentially key assets on the sly. It could prove to be a major positive amidst an otherwise dreary campaign.

    Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today

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    Through two drafts and two deadlines worth of "sell" trades, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have netted a bounty of minor-league talent, supplementing the long-term pipeline. But the front office has also acquired more immediate help through low-key maneuvers

    While these players aren't going to be stars, they could all bring real value for essentially no acquisition cost. Let's take a look at three current contributors of modest origins who may factor for years to come.

    Jake Cave, OF: Acquired in March from NYY for RHP Luis Gil

    The Twins took notice of Cave while scouting the Yankees system during trade discussions at the 2017 deadline. They ended up getting back two pitchers for Jaime Garcia at that time, but later snagged Cave via trade this spring when he landed on waivers.

    Last summer, Cave was amidst a slugging breakout at Triple-A, hitting 15 home runs in 72 games after previously totaling 24 in 568 career contests.

    "He made some adjustments that we thought led to the power surge that he had, and we think those will continue going forward," said Falvey when the Twins acquired Cave in March. So far, that assessment has proven astute.

    The 25-year-old outfielder has launched a dozen home runs, which would've been a career-high before last year's 20. Six of those have come in the majors, including an absolutely majestic blast to straightaway center on Sunday that flashed his raw strength. Cave went to a part of Target Field only three have reached before: Jim Thome, Byungho Park, Miguel Sano.

    Through 164 plate appearances in the big leagues, Cave has tallied 17 extra-base hits with a .480 slugging percentage – awfully impressive for a guy who slugged .398 through four minor-league seasons prior to 2017. As a semi-random comparison, Michael Cuddyer slugged .399 with 14 extra-base hits through his first 164 plate appearances in the majors.

    The MLB sample size remains small, but Cave has looked very capable at the plate and he's also a strong runner – albeit not a burner – with the makings of an asset in the outfield. He's a bit stretched in center, and his rookie season has been marred by some painful defensive blunders, but that'll happen.

    Given what the Twins risked to get Cave – Luis Gil, a 20-year-old righty currently at rookie ball in the Yankees system, and Kennys Vargas, who was DFA'd to make room but ended up back here anyway – the move looks like a slam dunk. Cave probably won't be a full-time starter but he can be a valuable bench piece or platoon mate, and the Twins control him through age 30.

    Tyler Austin, 1B: Acquired in July from NYY along with RHP Luis Rijo for RHP Lance Lynn

    Last offseason, one of Minnesota's top needs was a right-handed masher for the bench, to complement a predominantly left-handed lineup. It went unaddressed, and still existed when the Twins were able to bring Austin aboard in the Lance Lynn trade.

    Scavenging 40-man casualties from one of baseball's best systems is a strategy that's now paid off in the form of multiple instantly productive power hitters. Austin was the odd bat out in a loaded mix for the Yankees, but offers a welcome infusion for Minnesota. Through eight games in the new uniform he already has three homers, a double, and six RBIs.

    With 298 plate appearances under his belt, Austin has a .487 slugging percentage in the majors, and a 1.075 OPS against left-handed pitching. He's solid at first, and can play the outfield corners in a pinch. In others words, he's pretty much exactly what this offense needed – a gem of a find. And all the Twins had to do was expend four months, several groans, and a few million bucks on a non-performing malcontent.

    Oliver Drake, RP: Acquired in August off waivers from TOR

    We're dealing with small samples in all cases here, and Drake's is tinier than either of the above. So the praise here needs to be qualified with that. However... he has looked really, really good.

    On Monday night, Drake ran his hitless streak as a Twin to 8 1/3 innings by tossing two perfect frames with four strikeouts. He has now averaged 10.1 K/9 rate as a big-leaguer – albeit with a 4.67 ERA and 1.48 WHIP – and his Triple-A numbers are immaculate: 1.80 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 12.7 K/9.

    Much like lefty bullpen counterpart Gabriel Moya, Drake plays up his unspectacular fastball with a quirky delivery and standout offspeed pitch that give hitters fits. The 31-year-old has pitched for a record five different MLB teams this season, which speaks to his perceived expendability, but in a way, it also speaks to the opposite.

    He's hardly entrenched already as a long-term bullpen cog, but Drake adds another very intriguing arm to the mix going forward. Like Cave and Austin, the Twins can control him very reasonably for a long time if they desire.

    These sort of pickups aren't necessarily the flashiest, but they're crafty, and each could pay immense dividends as affordable components alongside those central building blocks in the sustainable winner Falvey envisions.

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    While I agree they aren't bad, shouldn't the comparison be to the league, not how bad the Twins were?

     

    On that front, they do ok.....league median in WAR and other measures.

     

    On the general topic.....I don't know why we have to discuss all the bad decisions, in order to discuss some good ones (or not good ones, depending on you feel about these three decisions). That seems like a tough bar to cross for every conversation.

     

    Well it's not wrong to consider their position relative to the league, but it's certainly relevant that we're only in year 2 of the new regime.

     

     

    Any particular post or poster you are responding to here?

     

    Not really. Posts on the 2018 bullpen have ranged overwhelmingly from skeptical to highly critical . . . I think there's a place for consideration of actual results. Drake is just the latest example (which isn't to say that he's anything special). 

     

    I mean, it's the best Twins bullpen in 10 years and posters are complaining about the loss of a replacement-level lefty-specialist (Rosario). That's not a reasonable mindset to have.

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    Well it's not wrong to consider their position relative to the league, but it's certainly relevant that we're only in year 2 of the new regime.

     

     

     

    Not really. Posts on the 2018 bullpen have ranged overwhelmingly from skeptical to highly critical . . . I think there's a place for consideration of actual results. Drake is just the latest example (which isn't to say that he's anything special). 

     

    I mean, it's the best Twins bullpen in 10 years and posters are complaining about the loss of a replacement-level lefty-specialist (Rosario). That's not a reasonable mindset to have.

    10th in the American League in ERA.

     

    2 spots better than 2017. 5 spots better than 2016. The same as 2015.

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    You have all 3 players over-valued based on a small sample size of performance. I highly doubt the Yankees will miss Cave or Austin yet you think they were great pick-ups? No one else could find a place for Drake but he miraculously becomes a fixture in the Twins pen? Sorry. When other teams castoffs are the better players on your team it only tells you what the current condition is of what you already have. 

    Why do you suppose it is that certain opposing players always perform better against the Twins than they do against other clubs? Because of the level of talent they are facing. Period!

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    I mean, it's the best Twins bullpen in 10 years and posters are complaining about the loss of a replacement-level lefty-specialist (Rosario). That's not a reasonable mindset to have.

    Sure, I don't really care much about the loss of Rosario. But I'm not sure "best in 10 years by one measure" means that much either. Especially when the best relievers by that measure were inherited from the previous front office, and the very best one was already traded.

     

    For long term pieces, they've added Moya, Magill, and now Drake, with Kinley and Haley in the rear view mirror. For shorter term pieces, they've added Rodney, Duke, Reed, Belisle (twice), Breslow.

     

    I won't argue that they are failures or anythint, but I think it's fair to question whether they've moved the needle yet in the MLB bullpen.

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    I won't argue that they are failures or anythint, but I think it's fair to question whether they've moved the needle yet in the MLB bullpen.

     

    I would argue that they did not move the needle that much yet because even if they did (which would had cost additional assets)  wouldn't be enough by itself for the team to contend deep in the postseason, and it is worth to save those assets to move multiple needles when they deem that the team can.

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    I would argue that they did not move the needle that much yet because even if they did (which would had cost additional assets) wouldn't be enough by itself for the team to contend deep in the postseason, and it is worth to save those assets to move multiple needles when they deem that the team can.

    Good bullpen moves don't necessarily cost much in assets. Brandon Morrow in 2017, Blake Parker, Kirby Yates. I wouldn't even be upset if we tried a few of those types and failed -- we just haven't even been attempting them much -- in some ways, Drake is the first, and maybe quite late. I would have preferred seeing some different arms earlier in the Haley, Kinley, Breslow, and 2018 Belisle spots -- felt like too much low upside wheel spinning.

     

    Again, not that this makes the new FO a failure -- but it doesn't really make them successful yet either.

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    Rodriguez is a starter, not a reliever.

    He would have been behind Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, and Slegers before he got his shot, which means he'd maybe just be on the cusp of getting his first taste right now.

    Or you could do what St. Louis has done successfully and broke some of these guys in on relief duty.
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    You have all 3 players over-valued based on a small sample size of performance. I highly doubt the Yankees will miss Cave or Austin yet you think they were great pick-ups? No one else could find a place for Drake but he miraculously becomes a fixture in the Twins pen? Sorry. When other teams castoffs are the better players on your team it only tells you what the current condition is of what you already have. 

    Why do you suppose it is that certain opposing players always perform better against the Twins than they do against other clubs? Because of the level of talent they are facing. Period!

     

    They may have thought he was expendable this spring but we have more information now and I don't think there's a single MLB team that would drop Cave given his 800 OPS over 160PAs in the majors. It's also not totally unexpected. He's been hitting quite well at every level in 2017/2018. Is it a mirage? Maybe. We'll see.

     

    Every projection system has him as a 700+ OPS guy moving forward. Add in 5 years of team control and the ability to play all 3 outfield positions and he is a valuable asset. Sometimes the Yankees get it wrong too.

    Edited by launchingthrees
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    Rodriguez is a starter, not a reliever.

    He would have been behind Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, and Slegers before he got his shot, which means he'd maybe just be on the cusp of getting his first taste right now.

    I have no doubt this would have been true. But based on results,it is another example of a big misjudgment by the front office. Edited by ken
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    Good pick ups.  For the 2018 Twins.  However, the question we all should be asking is whether any of the 3 would have had a place in the 25 men rosters of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros.

    Because that's where the bar has to be set if the Twins were to be competitive in the post-season ever again.

     

    Not at the Detroit and White Sox levels...

    Cave is hitting better than Gardner, Austin hit better than Bird.  The Yankees were kind of stuck with Gardner. Of course if they hadn't traded their back up back up catcher a few years ago for a struggling outfielder they would need Cave. Timing for a team is everything. Just ask an Astos fan about JD Martinez.  Bird has more potential probably than Austin, but he has not come through just yet. So they could have had a place on the Yankees. Relievers. Seems like a contender could always use a better one.  

    Edited by The Wise One
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    Why do you suppose it is that certain opposing players always perform better against the Twins than they do against other clubs? Because of the level of talent they are facing. Period!

    Maybe you never saw the look on Chris Sale's face when he was getting rocked again by the lowly twins a couple of years ago. The only team he was struggling against in a very stark statistical contrast. Your just cherry picking. Not just players but small runs they go on. Goodrum was doing great until he struck out against hildy with the game on the line. Sometimes wee see what we want to see.

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    So, your counter-argument is that Falvey has improved the bullpen's performance in each of his first two years. OK.

    I'll help him out. :)

     

    By ERA-, this is the Twins third-worst pen performance of the Gardy/Molitor era, behind only 2011 and 2016:

     

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2002&ind=1&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d

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    Rodriguez is a starter, not a reliever.
    He would have been behind Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, and Slegers before he got his shot, which means he'd maybe just be on the cusp of getting his first taste right now.

     

    Which is why he chose to go to SF.  His father was interviewed on MLB Radio and said the Twins wanted to sign him when he became a minor league free agent but Derek felt he had fewer young SPs to compete with in SF. Perhaps there is something I am not aware of with MiLB free agents but this was not a case of the Twins be unwilling to put him on the 40 man. I am missing something because numerous people have made it sound like the twins had "control" of this situation?

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    Perhaps there is something I am not aware of with MiLB free agents but this was not a case of the Twins be unwilling to put him on the 40 man. I am missing something because numerous people have made it sound like the twins had "control" of this situation?

    I don't think minor leaguers on the 40-man roster can be free-agents except through major league service time. With limited minor league options, that time can be lengthy but not infinite. The Twins had the choice to retain Rodriguez's services this way.

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    Rodriguez is a starter, not a reliever.
    He would have been behind Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, and Slegers before he got his shot, which means he'd maybe just be on the cusp of getting his first taste right now.

    What you say is true, the question is what did the Twins miss putting him behind them, because so far he has been way better than any of them.

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    I'll help him out. :)

    By ERA-, this is the Twins third-worst pen performance of the Gardy/Molitor era, behind only 2011 and 2016:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2002&ind=1&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d

     

    So what you're saying is, Falvey's bullpen has performed better in both of his seasons than the one he inherited. OK.

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    Which is why he chose to go to SF.  His father was interviewed on MLB Radio and said the Twins wanted to sign him when he became a minor league free agent but Derek felt he had fewer young SPs to compete with in SF. Perhaps there is something I am not aware of with MiLB free agents but this was not a case of the Twins be unwilling to put him on the 40 man. I am missing something because numerous people have made it sound like the twins had "control" of this situation?

    As Ashburyjohn said, the Twins could have kept him. He became a minor league FA because the Twins didn't put him on the 40 man roster. If they put him on the 40 man he wouldn't have been able to go anywhere and the Twins would have had three option years before he was forced to be on the 25 man. A player can't just leave the organization and sign with another team (example Lewis can't leave right now and sign with someone else). If the Twins don't add Lewis before he becomes a minor league FA, he's free to do whatever he wants when he becomes a minor league FA.

     

    It was the case of the Twins not putting him on the 40 man and allowing him to become a FA and then after free agency he had a better path to MLB via SF than here.

     

    Here's an article about it from the offseason: https://puckettspond.com/2017/10/22/minnesota-twins-rule-5-and-minor-league-free-agent-preview/

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    Don't most front offices add a few of these types most years? I mean, they still might be interesting guys to analyze, but I hesitate about giving too much credit to the FO for acquiring them yet.

    It's kind of like the offseason last year -- acquiring Odorizzi and the free agents we signed was considered solid by most, but honestly felt more like a minimum acceptable standard given our needs and resources -- had we done less than that, I think it would have felt like a disappointment.

    Likewise, us failing to acquire a few complementary pieces in 2018 on the current level of Cave, Austin, and Drake would probably have been bad, considering the alternatives. (Imagine if Vargas was back in Minnesota, or Boshers, or Belisle -- wait, scratch that last one :) ).

    Yeah, why give them credit for continued excellence. The 2017 draft appears strong, the 2017/18 off season was the most active ever and we picked up a bunch of board scapegoats. TD can never have enough scapegoats. The 2018 trade deadline will make us into a top 5 farm system. My personal favorite was the Hughes trade. The board was screaming to DFA Hughes and we saved 7.25M to use in free agency this off season by including a measly 2nd round pick. 

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    What you say is true, the question is what did the Twins miss putting him behind them, because so far he has been way better than any of them.

    his results, for one. Go take a look at his AA numbers in his final season in AA with us. I liked Rodriguez personally, but he was at best a bubble candidate on the 40 man at that point. His ERA was barely under 4. His K/9 rate was under 8. He was also 25 in AA. He wasn't taken in Rule V either, so everyone else 'missed' it too. He left as a FA to a place where he had less competition. That's not bad.

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    Yeah it's premature to call this trade a win for the Twins. Is Cave bringing something to the table that Wade couldn't do? Or even Granite if he wasn't injured.

    Corner outfielders without any pop are a dime a dozen. Wade and Granite will have to be content being board favorites. 

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    his results, for one. Go take a look at his AA numbers in his final season in AA with us. I liked Rodriguez personally, but he was at best a bubble candidate on the 40 man at that point. His ERA was barely under 4. His K/9 rate was under 8. He was also 25 in AA. He wasn't taken in Rule V either, so everyone else 'missed' it too. He left as a FA to a place where he had less competition. That's not bad.

     

    I don't see how anyone can complain about the Twins losing Rodriguez, he was on absolutely nobody's radar.  He has pitched better in a small sample size in SF than in any level in the minor leagues. 

     

    What is with the skepticism with Cave?  Was the Granite fanfare just because he was a home grown player?  Cave looks like a much more complete player at the same age but is essentially already cast off.  The strikeouts are concerning but I am honestly surprised at the disdain for him in this thread. 

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    Yeah, why give them credit for continued excellence. The 2017 draft appears strong, the 2017/18 off season was the most active ever and we picked up a bunch of board scapegoats. TD can never have enough scapegoats. The 2018 trade deadline will make us into a top 5 farm system. My personal favorite was the Hughes trade. The board was screaming to DFA Hughes and we saved 7.25M to use in free agency this off season by including a measly 2nd round pick.

     

    The Twins payroll was 128 or so this year. The Twins would have to be at 135M to spend that extra Hughes money. If they don't go that high, all it did was save the Pohlad's money (or hopefully gives them money flexibility at next years trade deadline). They've also said they don't bank money (what's saved this year isn't put towards next years available money).

     

    I think the Twins may end up short of last years attendance levels by about 70K, so revenue will probably be slightly down. And who knows if the Pohlad's will keep allowing them to spend like this. They should but you never know.

     

    I think people have said that they'd have to spend something like at least 50 million to even use that extra Hughes money. So they'd have to sign at least one of Harper, Machado or Kershaw. I don't see it happening but it would be great.

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    JT hurt again....hopefully it is minor....

    He's missed almost 3 complete years already. Burdi is not far behind. The new regime is not going to waste a lot of time with those who do not have a track record of being healthy. I question how much patience they will show with Bard, Jay, and the ever popular, board favorite Trevor May.

    Edited by howieramone2
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    his results, for one. Go take a look at his AA numbers in his final season in AA with us. I liked Rodriguez personally, but he was at best a bubble candidate on the 40 man at that point. His ERA was barely under 4. His K/9 rate was under 8. He was also 25 in AA. He wasn't taken in Rule V either, so everyone else 'missed' it too. He left as a FA to a place where he had less competition. That's not bad.

    So are you saying that the Giants were able to take a bubble candidate from the Twins and within a year turn him into a viable major league starting pitcher and the Twins couldn't do that (yet) with their top prospects?

    The Giants must have seen something in him beyond numbers to stick him directly into AAA, because IMO the Twins would have sent him back to AA.

    Edited by Tomj14
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    He's missed almost 3 complete years already. Burdi is not far behind. The new regime is not going to waste a lot of time with those who do not have a track record of being healthy. I question how much patience they with show with Bard, Jay, and the ever popular, board favorite Trevor May.

     

    I was just trying to show the young man some sympathy......

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    So are you saying that the Giants were able to take a bubble candidate from the Twins and within a year turn him into a viable major league starting pitcher and the Twins couldn't do that (yet) with their top prospects?

    The Giants must have seen something in him beyond numbers to stick him directly into AAA.

    that, and they didn't have much competition for him... The Twins probably would have put him in AAA had he resigned, but he was smart enough to know that he would be behind Slegers, Gonsalves, Littell, Mejia, and Romero (and based on his results, he should have been). He wasn't bad in AA, he just wasn't lights out either. My point though is that the Giants didn't give him a 40 man spot either. I really don't fault the Twins for anything there, and he was one of my personal favorites. 

     

    Also, Rodriguez spent his first 3 years in MN as a CF. It wasn't hard to see the potential here, but there's only so many 40 man spots. 

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