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  • Threading The Needle At Shortstop


    Nash Walker

    The Twins find themselves in an identical scenario at shortstop this offseason: they need one. More importantly, they need to thread the needle between filling the spot in 2022 and leaving it open for Royce Lewis in 2023. Here’s a solution. 

    Image courtesy of Benny Sieu, USA TODAY Sports

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    THE SITUATION
    The Andrelton Simmons signing was brilliant on paper. The Twins added one of the best defensive players of this generation while moving Jorge Polanco to second, where he’d go on to thrive on both sides. Unfortunately, Simmons didn’t carry his weight and produced one of the worst offensive seasons by a Twin in 20 years. 

    The Twins must avoid a similar landmine in filling the shortstop hole in 2022. Additionally, the spot needs to be warm if Royce Lewis is ready to staff it in 2023. It’s undoubtedly a tremendous free-agent class, and the Twins could opt to pursue one of Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, or Trevor Story. They may go back to Simmons or opt for a similarly low-priced commitment to Freddy Galvis or José Iglesias. 

    The latter would allow more allocation to starting pitching, which should be the primary focus this offseason. While it’s tantalizing, committing $20+ million to a star shortstop will eat up a considerable amount of available free agency payroll. 

    The most admirable option is striking the middle. By swinging a trade for Jean Segura, the Twins thread the needle between improving in 2022 and leaving the door open for Lewis in 2023. Oh, and they save some money for pitching too. 

    THE PLAYER
    Segura was quietly fantastic for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021, slashing .290/.348/.436 (111 OPS+) with 27 doubles, three triples, and 14 homers in 131 games. He was worth 3.7 Wins Above Replacement, which would’ve ranked third to Polanco (4.8) and Byron Buxton (4.5) on the Twins. 

    The 31-year-old has averaged 3.86 Wins Above Replacement in five full seasons since a 2016 breakout for the Diamondbacks. Segura hits for a high average, doesn’t strike out (especially for this era), and consistently posts better-than-average OPS marks. 

    Segura’s last entire season at shortstop was in 2019, when he was slightly below average defensively, according to Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-7). He’s played primarily second base since, especially after the Phillies signed Didi Gregorius to play short.

    Segura’s batted-ball data won’t jump off the page, but he’s consistently in the top 10% of the league for lowest strikeout and whiff rate. He has above-average speed and 10-15 homer power. The Twins have plenty of pop and could use another Luis Arraez-type in their lineup. 

    THE COST
    The Seattle Mariners signed Segura to a 5-year, $70 million deal after his outstanding 2016, then traded him after two seasons. He’s now entering his final guaranteed year of the agreement and will make $14.85 million in 2022. Segura has a club option for 2023 at $17 million with a $1 million buyout. 

    Segura’s salary places him in-between the blue-bloods of this class (Semien, Correa, etc.) and the bargains (Simmons, Galvis, Iglesias). 

    It’s essentially a one-year, $14.85 million deal with an option for a second. It's is an ideal contract for the Twins, as they aren’t sure Lewis will be ready to start at short in 2023 but also want to leave the possibility open. According to FanGraphs, Segura was worth $19.8 million in 2021. 

    THE TRADE
    You may be asking why the Phillies would trade their starting second baseman when they’re trying to compete? Well, you could be right. There’s a chance the Phillies aren’t entertaining offers for Segura. But why wouldn’t they?

    Philadelphia needs as much relief help as it can get. The team has an estimated $171 million already committed to 2022 and sported a 27th-ranked bullpen last year (1.1 fWAR). The Phillies are spending ~$62 million on their infield and could stand to re-allocate those funds to the pitching side. 

    Further, the Phillies currently have MLB’s 4th-weakest farm system, per Pipeline. They could hand off Segura’s contract while also adding young talent. On the Twins side, the price may be two mid-level prospects. Say, RHP Cole Sands and INF Edouard Julien

    THE BOTTOM LINE
    No one wants to see Simmons helplessly wave his bat for the Twins again in 2022. They need improvement in the short term and perspective for the long term. Segura is an opportunity for that. He’s a solid player on a solid contract and allows the Twins to focus most of their spending on the rotation. 

    What are your thoughts on Jean Segura?

     
     
     
     

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    I guess I am confused on this one.  The Phillies need BP help, and the team who needs pitching the most of anyone is going to trade an up and coming pitcher?  And the Phillies are going to trade their starting major league 2nd baseman for a class A 2nd baseman and a AA SP?  Where is their BP help, and where do we put an ex SS turned 2nd baseman?  

    And I wish folks would stop saying "no one wants to see Simmons" back at short; I know a lot of people who wouldn't mind him coming back under certain conditions, and I am one of them.  If we can't get a long term fill in a trade or by FA, and we certainly don't have a rookie we truly believe can take the job on opening day and run with it, we should bring him back on a 1 year deal with a team option for '23 just in case, and let's see who develops from within.  A little continuity in a good defensive infield (especially if we move Kirilloff to 1b) can only help whatever pitching we do patch together between now and April.  And he is certainly capable of hitting more than .223; he always has and can again.  

    I don't know; almost 15 mil for a former SS 2 seasons removed from playing the position, and playing it below average at that, scares me a little, but if it means keeping Polanco at 2nd that is better than moving Polanco.  But if you are looking for a 1 year stop gap, and that alone, Simmons at 8 or 9 mil is a much better deal.  We simply do not have any excess money for anything but pitching.  We used that excess already on Donaldson, and we can't afford any more.  

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    I love the idea of seeing if Escobar could hold down the shortstop position until Lewis/Palacio are ready to take the reins. While Eduardo may not win a gold glove as someone mentioned, his defense has always been solid and he has some good offensive tools and he was a great clubhouse presence.  In addition, he is someone we wouldn't have to beg to come play in Minnesota as it is likely he still has some fond memories of his time here.   Sign Eduardo, Sign Buck!

          

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    3 hours ago, Mark G said:

    I guess I am confused on this one.  The Phillies need BP help, and the team who needs pitching the most of anyone is going to trade an up and coming pitcher?  And the Phillies are going to trade their starting major league 2nd baseman for a class A 2nd baseman and a AA SP?  Where is their BP help, and where do we put an ex SS turned 2nd baseman?  

    And I wish folks would stop saying "no one wants to see Simmons" back at short; I know a lot of people who wouldn't mind him coming back under certain conditions, and I am one of them.  If we can't get a long term fill in a trade or by FA, and we certainly don't have a rookie we truly believe can take the job on opening day and run with it, we should bring him back on a 1 year deal with a team option for '23 just in case, and let's see who develops from within.  A little continuity in a good defensive infield (especially if we move Kirilloff to 1b) can only help whatever pitching we do patch together between now and April.  And he is certainly capable of hitting more than .223; he always has and can again.  

    I don't know; almost 15 mil for a former SS 2 seasons removed from playing the position, and playing it below average at that, scares me a little, but if it means keeping Polanco at 2nd that is better than moving Polanco.  But if you are looking for a 1 year stop gap, and that alone, Simmons at 8 or 9 mil is a much better deal.  We simply do not have any excess money for anything but pitching.  We used that excess already on Donaldson, and we can't afford any more.  

    Right there with you Mark. It's unpopular, but I'm so down for rolling it back with Simmons. If you read outside Twins Land, he is considered a prime buy-low, bounce-back candidate. 

    Plus, he's an incredible artist in the field. It makes watching Twins baseball more enjoyable.

    He's not my first pick, but if the team spends big on FA pitchers and can't swing a trade for a SS, Simmons is my first pick from the one-year-contract guys.

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    22 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    I did not mean it to be personal - I have to learn the etiquette of these posts.  But I did mean to express displeasure at the idea.

     

    You did not make anything personal with the author or another poster. You have the right to express a strong opinion if you so choose. You are not obligated to conform to other posters sensibilities as long as you abide by the rules of the forum, which you did. 

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    7 hours ago, big dog said:

    Eduardo Escobar has played one game at shortstop since 2018, and he's never played more than 25% of his games at that position. I don't see why we would count on him to be better than Polanco in 2022.

    Because Eduardo Escobar was considered a glove first shortstop when the Twins got him for Liriano, he grades out as a career average shortstop (UZR/150 +2.4), and his speed and arm as as good as ever. Gardy gave the starting shortstop job to defensive wizard Pedro Florimon and Molitor gave the job to 1 year wonder Danny Santana not because Escobar wasn't capable of playing shortstop, but because the Twins, in their infinite wisdom, believed more in Florimon and Santana being MLB caliber players. Escobar forced his way into starting and was established at 3B before Polanco was called up. Polanco cannot play 3rd base and Molitor didn't think he could play SS, but the front office wanted Polanco tested and they desperately wanted him to improve there. Escobar was viewed as a short term asset so he was traded to Arizona, who didn't need a shortstop so they played Escobar at 3B. 

    Meanwhile, Polanco is one of the worst starting shortstops to play at the MLB level in the past 20 years (career UZR/150 -11.0). 

    Escobar just hasn't been needed at SS is what it boils down to.

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    9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    Because Eduardo Escobar was considered a glove first shortstop when the Twins got him for Liriano, he grades out as a career average shortstop (UZR/150 +2.4), and his speed and arm as as good as ever. Gardy gave the starting shortstop job to defensive wizard Pedro Florimon and Molitor gave the job to 1 year wonder Danny Santana not because Escobar wasn't capable of playing shortstop, but because the Twins, in their infinite wisdom, believed more in Florimon and Santana being MLB caliber players. Escobar forced his way into starting and was established at 3B before Polanco was called up. Polanco cannot play 3rd base and Molitor didn't think he could play SS, but the front office wanted Polanco tested and they desperately wanted him to improve there. Escobar was viewed as a short term asset so he was traded to Arizona, who didn't need a shortstop so they played Escobar at 3B. 

    Meanwhile, Polanco is one of the worst starting shortstops to play at the MLB level in the past 20 years (career UZR/150 -11.0). 

    Escobar just hasn't been needed at SS is what it boils down to.

    Understood, but he was 23 at the time...nearly ten years ago. I don't see it.

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    I have always liked Segura as a player and I like that you threw out the idea.  He hits.  Always.  He gets on base consistently.  And while he doesn't steal as many bases anymore, he runs well.  He's got a little pop.  14-15 HR's is usually where he finishes each year.   Why I haven't myself suggested him is that he's still set to make $15 million in 2022 and he hasn't been a SS in a couple of years.  If $15 million could get us Jon Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez, I'd rather use that money to directly add pitching and consider other options for SS.  If the Twins weren't so darn NEEDY for pitching I'd be all over bringing someone like Trevor Story to Minnesota.  But in all honesty, the Twins need to add FOUR SP's of varying talent and cost for 2022.  They just do.  Ryan and Ober are really #5 and #5A in the rotation with innings limits sure to be imposed.  I still like the idea of trading for Adelberto Mondesi.  If the Royals would trade within the division he wouldn't break the bank.  We'd need to trade minor league talent for him, but we have young enough arms coming up that something could be worked out.  Mondesi is a lottery ticket, much like Byron Buxton.  Health is a major concern.  but I think worth the gamble.  Even if I traded for Mondesi I'm having discussions about a Galvis/Iglesias type just in case Mondesi gets hurt again.  Galvis/Iglesias types are good gloves to have on your bench.  The other option is a trade with the Cardinals for Paul DeJong.  Again, DeJong wouldn't cost much to acquire.  The Cards, if they don't sign someone like Story would go with Sosa at SS.  DeJong is available.  Mondesi and DeJong won't have a salary anywhere near the $14.85 million Segura has, so I've got a little more juice in my wallet to rebuild our pitching staff at the end of the day.  Yes, the Twins have some young pitchers in the pipeline and yes Maeda will come back.  But those guys may not be ready to make any contribution until 2023.  The Twins need arms NOW.     

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    3 hours ago, big dog said:

    Understood, but he was 23 at the time...nearly ten years ago. I don't see it.

    I understand your skepticism, which is why I started looking into Escobar's speed, etc. Andrelton Simmons has lost more than a step or two as he's approached and moved into his 30s. It happens frequently. In Escobar's case, no quantifyable physical decline in the stats showed up. If he's just as fast as he was, and his arm is just as strong as it was and he's actively been playing on that side of the infield, moving him back to shortstop doesn't seem far fetched. 

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    On 11/9/2021 at 10:46 PM, cHawk said:

    The tough thing is that there really wasn’t anything wrong with the Simmons signing on paper last year. NOBODY predicted he would be that bad (if you did, then props to you).

    The more I think about the Segura idea, the more it makes sense to me. He’s been a pretty solid player over the last five years. I’d be fine with it. He would be cheaper than the big names in the FA market, so the Twins could allocate that money more towards the (many) holes in the pitching staff.

    That being said, IDK what the Twins would give up for him. That’s the hard part.

    That's the thing; for the money+player/prospect Segura would require for one year of service @$16M ($14.85M +$1M buyout), you could probably re-sign Simmons to a 2 year deal, figuring he is still great (not as good as at one time, but still) in the field, and most likely recovers somewhat at the plate. Doesn't cost you any prospects and gives you a controllable body at a reasonable rate at the deadline next year if things don't pan out.  The question is, is he a good mix in the clubhouse? We've heard a variety of things this past season. Throw this idea completely out the window if there were personality clashes, aloofness, or whatever you want to call a "bad" teammate personality-wise.

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    The Rays GM Erik Neander's take on Jermaine Palacios when they acquired him from the Twins in 2018:

    “This is somebody that, by our own work and by our own information, what we see here is a lean, wiry Venezuelan shortstop who has had plenty of offensive success ... He’s someone we think has some offensive upside. He can play shortstop and play it well. All reports on the makeup are very positive. This is someone we think can grow into more physical strength ... might have another gear up from here. You look at what he’s accomplished to date on the field, combined with the tool set, along with the makeup, we think that this is a really exciting player to add to our system.”

    Not sure if the Twins view him as a Major League piece, but I've read worse player reviews and it was his struggles with the bat in the Rays organization that led him back to being with the Twins. He hit pretty good at AA last year. Possible Twins SS for 2022?

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