The Twins Need to be Realistic With Max Kepler

I think the Twins roster is pretty much set, although I would love for them to sign Chafin or Moore. That being said, I think the Twins should over the course of the next year look to trade Kepler and Polanco for the best prospects they can get regardless of position. 

I just think with the outfielders they have and the infield depth (catcher notwithstanding) and the starting pitching depth that prospects is their best bet 

While I wouldn't trade Polanco, I can see them trading Kepler (but I wouldn't) though I think he will benefit with the end of the shift. Much depends on what they can/will get for Max. I like him since I am also Jewish so I hope that, if he is traded, that it's to the Yankees.

Unless the Twins feel payroll would be an issue as it stands they have the 40 man room to keep Kepler. When they put Canterino, Paddack, and Lewis on the IL they will have three 40 man spots open up so they can get a 1st baseman and a couple of relievers if they want to.  

I don't think they should just give Kepler away as they are an injury or two away from needing him and they had lots of injuries last year.  I think they would likely gain better leverage if another team has injuries and needs Max and is willing to overpay to get a deal done.

Things could change or open up once teams IL spots open up so I wouldn't say Max is safe just yet.  But I like that the Twins are wiling to be patient and see alternate scenario's for Kepler.

if they perceive themselves to be tapped out budget wise -- whatever -- they should trade kepler and sign luke voit and michael fulmer for that amount of cash.

Kepler still a Twin on opening day?  Gallo playing 1B?  Where have I heard that before...

I don't think anybody has said that he is a long term piece of the puzzle or a "core" piece.  But he does have value, more than people think.  He should benefit from the shift ban and he is a very reasonably priced piece batting 7th.

Let the "We have to trade Kepler!" screaming commence.

I would still move him and send him to Pirates who start their 5-year plan over each year.  Kepler is at best a 4th OF on the team vs Lefties and maybe a 3rd OF vs Righties and that's a strong maybe in my opinion.  

Love his defense but his hitting he just seems lost in making adjustments  ...

If he stays don't bat him 1 through 4 in the batter order , play him as a defensive replacement off the bench  ...

It was an amazing year in 2019 as he and other players had career years that most likely won't be duplicated  ... 

I never like trading players but a change of scenery could help Kepler with new coaching and advice  , as a twin he's lost here in his approach ...

If I'm the other team I see value in Kepler as a defensive specialist ...

WE HAVE TO TRADE KEPLER!

lol, no in reality I am very ok holding onto him. part of it is personal bias as I just really enjoy Kepler. He was a guy I always rooted for and thought would be a legit allstar caliber player. At this point, I think that time has passed, though I would love to put my foot in my  mouth at the end of the year. I think this article nailed it with his usage. Maybe a platoon with him and Taylor for RHP vs LHP? Then maybe package Larnach with Polanco or something for another big arm. IDK just spitballing. I think the Twins make one more big move before the season starts

To me the problem is that they don't have anyone better as a replacement. Taylor and Gallo are both supposedly great defensively. Taylor's numbers look about the same to me (I'm concerned about 2022 numbers, not career numbers) and Gallo looks like he fills a Sano sized hole. Larnach, if healthy, is too young to be a proven asset (though I hope and expect he will be) and besides, if he fits the bill, he'll probably be in LF. 

One thing I do wonder, though, is whether it is OK to have a poor defending RF when Buxton is healthy. Can't they afford a RF with less range? Especially if it means replacing the bat with someone who might actually move a runner forward? If that's the case, I put Gordon in right... until Buxton is hurt. 

“Joey Gallo will play a lot of 1B early as Alex Kiriloff is worked back in”. Talk about waking up to a day killer comment…..

Re Max, he’s one of my favorites and I’ve cheered hard for him. He makes the occasional great play in the field, but otherwise he’s now a complete snooze fest at the plate. With Taylor and Gallo, his skill base, especially given his cost, is pretty much redundant. There is no reason to turn on the game or show up at the park to watch Max.

He will/should be moved and the capital redeployed into the pen. If not, it will be an off-season failure for the FO.

Boy, Buxton better play a lot of CF this year and be good doing it - otherwise, we will probably have the lightest hitting OF in the majors.

Unfortunately this was a good article about Kep's limitations. What struck me was the ridiculous number of times Kep batted in the 1-4 spots in the batting order in 2022. This fact does not speak well for Rocco, who kept putting Kep in those spots in the batting order.  " The left side of the infield is wide open. And Kepler swings and hits a two-hopper to the second baseman, who throws him out at first."

  On 1/27/2023 at 3:33 PM, umterp23 said:

I would still move him and send him to Pirates who start their 5-year plan over each year.  Kepler is at best a 4th OF on the team vs Lefties and maybe a 3rd OF vs Righties and that's a strong maybe in my opinion.  

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Try to get Henry Davis also, who is a top 10 catching prospect with a great arm for the Pirates. Add Noah Miller, or newly acquired Salas (both SS's) from the Twins and Davis from the Pirates to this trade.

  On 1/27/2023 at 3:33 PM, umterp23 said:

I would still move him and send him to Pirates who start their 5-year plan over each year.  Kepler is at best a 4th OF on the team vs Lefties and maybe a 3rd OF vs Righties and that's a strong maybe in my opinion.  

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Why would Pirates have any interest in Kepler?  I get Winder and a pick, but why Kepler?  They are in no way going to be competing in the next few years.  He adds nothing to their team.  Suer, the magic trade machine says they fit, but you need to remember the team taking on someone like Kepler will want to be in win now mode, if they are giving away assets.  Would Pirates take him if he was put on waivers, maybe, but they would never give up an asset to get him, as he does not fit their plans going forward. 

Kepler isn’t the player of ‘19 because of the juiced ball. Nor is he the player with the shift. He is the no shift player but everyone wants to pay for the preban Kepler. FO is right not selling him cheap. The real Kepler will show up this Spring and he’ll be in demand. Be patient and don’t do anything stupid. In the meantime. He should start.

I have been saying all along people are over valuing Kepler.  I keep seeing suggested trades to all kinds of teams, not understanding the very limited market Kepler will draw.  Kepler is a good, but not great player.  He is best on a team that is looking to fill that last OF spot, or a 4th OF kind of spot.  No rebuilding team will have interest in him because of his age most likely does not line up with their timeline.  Which leaves just a few teams, like the Yankees, left.  Those teams will not be willing to give up current MLB talent most likely as they are competing and will not want to deplete current talent, unless they have huge excess.  

Some fans think with the anti-shift rule Kepler's numbers will increase, you will be disappointed I believe. That being said, I would be fine with keeping him, let him hit bottom of order.  

His production can easily be replaced between Larnach / Gallo / Wallner and Gordon or at least very close to replaced.  By replaced I mean considering both offensive and defensive value and I would not be surprised if a couple of those options were considerably better offensively this year.   If they can get significant future value and spend the amount saved by trading Kepler on a BP piece, it's a no brainer for me.

  On 1/27/2023 at 3:48 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Unfortunately this was a good article about Kep's limitations. What struck me was the ridiculous number of times Kep batted in the 1-4 spots in the batting order in 2022. This fact does not speak well for Rocco, who kept putting Kep in those spots in the batting order.  " The left side of the infield is wide open. And Kepler swings and hits a two-hopper to the second baseman, who throws him out at first."

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The reference to Kepler in the top four spots needs a deeper look. He batted very rarely in the top three spots (18 games). He was No. 4 in 44 games, but the vast majority of those were between games 60 and 96, when their other options were an as-yet-unproven Miranda, Celestino, Sanchez/Jeffers, Kirilloff, an unproven Gordon, Cave, etc. In a decent number of games in that stretch, he did bat fourth in front of Polanco, but that’s more about batting lefties 1-4-7.

Don’t forget as well that by definition, the top of the order gets more plate appearance. The 1-4 spots don’t get just 4/9 of the plate appearances (44.4%) as a team. Last year, they got nearly 50 percent. 

The opening statement says it’s time for the Twins to “realize what they have” in Kepler. I think it’s precisely because they DO realize what they have that they haven’t traded him. He’s the quintessential “floor” player. If he stays healthy, plays a great right field, and bats ninth on a regular basis (which is where I think his skill set fits best with the current roster), that’s a good lineup. 

At this point, if they do end up trading him, I hope it’s for a reliever, but I’d rather just sign a Fulmer type or two. 

  On 1/27/2023 at 3:54 PM, Trov said:

Why would Pirates have any interest in Kepler?  I get Winder and a pick, but why Kepler?  They are in no way going to be competing in the next few years.  He adds nothing to their team.  Suer, the magic trade machine says they fit, but you need to remember the team taking on someone like Kepler will want to be in win now mode, if they are giving away assets.  Would Pirates take him if he was put on waivers, maybe, but they would never give up an asset to get him, as he does not fit their plans going forward. 

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Right — why would a team on a “five-year-plan” prioritize a two-year outfielder. Not to mention that the “magic trade machine” isn’t that magic. According to it, the Arraez trade wasn’t even close to even, with the Twins winning in a big way. 

I like keeping Kep around for two reasons.  1) Let's see how he does with the shift changes. 2) I love the thought of him in RF with Buck in center and Gallo in LF for their defense.  They can chase down lots of line drives and get some OF assists with their arms.

If he has issues throughout the first half of the year or does well but we have others pushing him out of a starting role, then look to trade him at the deadline.

Let the playing field decide what action or non action needs to be taken. Even by his not so pretty 2022 stats he is economically priced as far as payroll and value are concerned, There is a chance he rebounds with the new rules and even swipes some bags. If that happens you have a valuable piece going forward whether on the field or to trade. If he stays at 2022 levels on the field you still have the same value at the trade deadline as you have now. My hope and prediction is that he finally gets it and adjusts launch angle on his swing and we will enjoy watching him play for the Twins this year.

  On 1/27/2023 at 4:52 PM, miller761 said:

Let the playing field decide what action or non action needs to be taken. Even by his not so pretty 2022 stats he is economically priced as far as payroll and value are concerned, There is a chance he rebounds with the new rules and even swipes some bags. If that happens you have a valuable piece going forward whether on the field or to trade. If he stays at 2022 levels on the field you still have the same value at the trade deadline as you have now. My hope and prediction is that he finally gets it and adjusts launch angle on his swing and we will enjoy watching him play for the Twins this year.

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I hope so too my friend. I have always liked Kepler. If they decided to let him start in RF to begin the season, maybe just do it from the 9 hole though lol...

I think he could certainly gain more value as an offensive asset by no longer having to play against the shift; then you could deal him at the deadline for a potentially unexpected need, rather than dealing him now for prospects.

  On 1/27/2023 at 4:42 PM, Cody Pirkl said:

The injury context is real for Kepler's spots in the order last season, I meant that more as an "I hope they learned those days are behind him" rather than trying to chastise them for putting him there. When they really needed him to step up because they had no other choice, he was absolutely terrible and eventually wasn't even available himself which I think needs to be learned from which is the bigger point I wanted to make.

I personally don't know that I look at him as much of a floor player anymore either. People look at defensive value as fairly safe but even random variance could lead to a down defensive season for him, look at Correa's metrics last year. If he isn't truly elite defensively and is below average at the plate against lefties and righties again, he's the definition of replaceable. You could possibly even call him a net negative on the roster if that's the case.

My whole thing behind trading Kepler is basically that I find him incredibly redundant on this roster and I think it's become far more likely that his once cheap $10m option is declined for 2024. Might as well get some kind of value on him now.

 

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But if several years of so-so hitting mean we have to ignore 2019’s hitting, why we would we ignore several years of great defense and anticipate “random variance” to lead to so-so defense this year? Could it happen? Sure, but so could another 2019 bat then. 

I’m probably jaded by last year, but “redundancy” looks different if AK can’t hit, pushing Gallo to first, and even one of Buxton, Larnach, Gordon is hurt or unproductive. With Burton’s health and Larnach and Gordon having combined for about one-half of a productive season, that doesn’t seem like a stretch. I hope those don’t happen, but it’s not a stretch to see them.

Folks are down on Kepler. I get that. But the Twin are not going to get much less for Kepler if they trade him in July compared to trading him now.

Kepler is the perfect example of looking to sell high on a guy.  Sometimes it bites you, sometimes it bites the other team.  After 2019, Keplers value could not have been higher.  He was coming off what we all were hoping was breakout season.  Some were thinking he would take another step and be even better.  He was also signed long term on team friendly deal, if he progressed as some had hoped.  I will admit, I was one that hoped he would keep growing, and was not asking for a trade.  However, if we had traded him then, we would have maxed his value.  There would have been larger market for him, and teams would have offered more for him.  Now he has little value 2 years later. 

If we would have traded him then, fans would have been upset, but it would have been the better move, too bad we cannot go back. 

I am amongst the few who believe that the shift change will be huge for Max.  And I don't say that because a lot more of his ground balls will become hits.  Rather, it will be a psychological change of how he approaches his at bats.  He will no longer be going to the plate thinking that no matter what he does he is going to be out with what appears as the entire team between first and second.  Yes, he could have, or even should have, learned how to defeat the shift by bunting and going to left field.  But for whatever reason, he didn't.

Now he will be going into 2023 knowing that defenders need to play where they did historically.  I expect he is going to become more of the hitter we saw in 2019, ie, will be hitting the ball harder and with more elevation.  The results just may, note I wrote may, be surprising.  And yes, I expect Max to be the Twins regular right fielder come opening day.  With their outfield depth, Max and all outfielders will get more time off.  Hopefully, the Manager will be smart about who plays and when?