The Twins Need Josh Donaldson

Ugggh. This is not the article I wanted to read. My quick 2 cents...Love Donaldson's arm. I never hold my breath on a throw that might be tight, but he's made a couple throws that were 'easy' that cost the team. He was meh overall last year for his value and so far has been meh this year. I know he has a negative xBA, but he just doesn't seem to make consistent solid contact (new band name). I hope he comes through and this is the year we're paying him for. The next two may be sunken cost if the current performance continues. Come on Josh, let's not make this a sucky contract

Perhaps the biggest question, who has the bigger anchor on their back?  The Twins with Donaldson or the Wild with Parise?

Doubt many of us were disappointed when the Twins signed him, although I expect many of us were concerned about the length of his contract given his age/injury history.  If the Twins had an adequate third base prospect to fill in at third, could they find a trade partner this summer and move Donaldson?  May require them to be creative and/or eat some of the dollars.  I guess a lot will depend on how Donaldson hits the next 45 days, does he remain on the field and are the Twins out of the hunt and in seller's mode.  If so, imagine they could move Sano back to third with Kirilloff their permanent first baseman.

Looking into Donaldson's offensive numbers a little deeper does provide some reason for optimism. His BABIP this season is just .240, well below his career average of .296. Also, his batted ball profile this season is very much in line with his career numbers (18%/45%/37% GB/LD/FB in 2021 vs. 18%/43%/39% career), and his HR/FB rate (12.8%) is well below his career rate (19.0%). Given that his exit velocity is still in the top 10% of the league, it's very reasonable to expect his batted balls to begin turning into hits at a higher clip and more of his fly balls to turn into HRs going forward.

His defense seems like a different story, unfortunately... He is much slower now than at any point in his career, and he's likely only going to get slower. A good arm and good instincts can make up for some of that, but I'm afraid his time being considered as one of the top defensive 3Bs in the league is likely over.

IL placements are up 30% compared to this point of 2019 excluding covid IL trips according to Baseball Prospectus.  

Ken Rosenthal compared the first month of 2021 to the first month of 2019 a few weeks ago and found that there were almost twice as many soft tissue injuries like hamstring, quad, oblique injuries than the first month of 2019.  Arm and elbow injuries were up 19%.  Rosenthal has the IL placements for the first month of 2021 being 19% higher than the first month of 2019 so the Baseball Prospectus data would indicate injuries are happening more often as the season goes on.

I guess the good news could be that maybe this isn't typical Josh Donaldson (or Buxton) is always injured and more of a everyone is struggling to stay healthy after the crazy year. 

I must admit, I've been very disappointed in Donaldson.  He's been nowhere near what we all expected or hoped for.  Last night against the Royals he had several opportunities to come up with a big hit, and came up empty each time.  As it looks more and more likely the Twins will finish this year in jarringly disappointing fashion, I'm wondering what the "re-tool" is going to look like.  If Donaldson is even "average" coming up to the deadline, I'd look to move him for very little return to a contender (would the Mets want him?) just to clear that salary to be used for other areas needing improvement.  Donaldson, Sano, Polanco, Simmons, Kepler, Pineda, all should be involved in discussions for prospects.  Maybe take a hard look at the FA shortstop market next year.  A team built to defend their 2-year run as division champs shouldn't be crashing and burning with the "complete system failure" that we've seen.  Kiriloff is up.  Larnach is up.  The arms like Duran, Balazovic, Canterino and Jax shouldn't be too far away (although Balazovic needs to get healthy).  But a lot of the "dead weight" on this roster needs to be sent packing.

In 2018-19 Donaldson had an OPS+ Of 123 playing 64% of the games. In 2020-2021 he has an OPS+ of 117 playing in 60% of games through Friday. It seems like the kind of decline you might expect from age 32 to 35. There will likely be more decline in the next two years. In free agency you buy the decline, Sometimes you pay big for it. Occasionally you get a Cruz who defies it.

Sure we need him to step up - but we really have no one in the minors ready to push him at all for playing time.  We spent the money, and he needs to perform - simple as that.  Otherwise if we decide to be sellers, he should be someone we at least put on the block as an option to move on from pending we get a young 3B ready in a year in return.

On 5/28/2021 at 1:47 PM, cHawk said:

Here’s a problem I have with BABIP — BABIP doesn’t account for quality of contact on a ball in play. A .300 BABIP is considered to be league average. However, if the quality of contact is weak 80-90% of the time, you are not going to have a .300 BABIP. You can’t expect to have a .300 BABIP if you can’t actually hit the ball hard.

Since 2015, I have organized the league average BABIP on the six levels of quality of contact (according to baseball savant):

Poorly (Combines Topped/Under/Weak) - .132
Flare/Burner - .655
Solid Contact - .424
Barrel - .518

How well you hit the ball will clearly make a difference. 

Donaldson’s BABIP in 2021 is .240, which is well below league average. If you take number of BIP with the weight above:

67 Poorly
19 Flare/Burner
3 Solid Contact
16 Barrel

(67*.132 + 19*.655 + 3*.424 + 16*.518)/(67 + 19 + 3 + 16) = .571. 

There is no way a .571 BABIP is sustainable, but I do think that his BABIP is low based on how he has been hitting the ball.

What worries me about Donaldson is he flinches at every breaking ball - he seems to be scared of it hitting him or isn't picking it up. He either swings and misses badly or pops it up, right?