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When a baseball team deems itself a seller at the trade deadline, the names that most often pop up are the players who are on expiring contracts. For the Twins, those names are Nelson Cruz, Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ and Hansel Robles, among others. Those players will undoubtedly be in trade rumors all trade season, as they are bound for free agency at the end of the year anyways. While it makes a ton of sense to trade expiring players, the lack of team control that comes with those players suppresses the return that can be expected in those trades. Greater assets can be had when players are traded who bring with them multiple years of team control such as Minnesota Twins’ team ace, José Berríos. Berríos has this year and next of arbitration before becoming a free agent after the 2022 season.
Already there is national speculation that Berríos could be dealt, as Jon Morosi from MLB Network tweeted yesterday that he could be a name for which the Twins field offers.
Over each of the past few offseasons, the Minnesota Twins have worked with Berríos to get an extension done to keep him in Minnesota past 2022, but Berríos and his camp have turned down those team-friendly deals in favor of working Berríos toward free agency. With his free agency now just 18 months away, the odds of getting an extension done with the right hander are next to nothing. Berríos is now already making serious money in arbitration, and his free agency is so close that the Twins no longer hold any type of leverage over José. This will leave the Minnesota Twins in a situation where they will be bidding against 29 other teams for the right to sign Berríos, where realistically they will likely get outbid and lose out on their 2-time all-star.
Operating under the above assumption, that means that the Minnesota Twins have a year and a half left of Berríos’s services. The 2021 season for the Twins is already a lost cause, leaving only the 2022 season for Berríos to bring value to this club. The only reason that the Twins would hang onto Berríos at this point is if they truly believe that 2021 is an outlier and that they expect to compete for a division title and World Series in 2022. How realistic is that, though? After all, the Twins have the worst record in Major League Baseball with the 5th worst run differential. The Twins have the second worst pitching staff in the American League, and after the season the Twins will lose 3/5 of their rotation, their home run leader, their starting shortstop and their second best bullpen arm to free agency. There are reasons to think that with better luck and injury fortune things could get better, but acting as if everything will turn around in 2022 when the numbers suggest that this isn’t a good team, could be detrimental. That is what happened with the 2011 team, and it led into a 8-year rebuild featuring some of the worst Minnesota Twins teams in team history (Aaron Gleeman wrote an excellent piece about this a couple of weeks ago).
On the flipside, the Minnesota Twins could take advantage of this opportunity where they have a true asset with massive trade value that they could flip to bring back a big return, fueling the Minnesota Twins’ next run in 2023, 2024 and beyond. This 2021 season has shown that the Twins have legit young talent joining the fold in Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, with pitching prospects soon to come. Gaining more future assets to pair along with the young core the Twins have could lead into their next competitive window, not far off.
The Morosi tweet above mentions the Toronto Blue Jays, who boast a top-10 farm system in all of baseball with massive prospect names such as Nate Pearson, Austin Martin and Nate Groshans. Whether it’s the Blue Jays or another team, Berríos possesses the talent and the years of control that should bring back a top-100 prospect (and then some) in return. That return could be what gives the Twins their next ace, cleanup hitter, or gives them the trade ammunition to make a veteran deal down the line. Next deadline, Berríos could be struggling or injured, and his team control of just 3 months at that point will hugely suppress the return that he will bring should the Twins decide to play things out. The difference in trade return between now and then could set the Twins back years. Berríos’ trade value is as high as it is ever going to be until he becomes a free agent and the Twins are as low as they have been in a while, with no guarantee they will claw themselves back anytime soon.
The Time to Trade José Berríos is Now.
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