The Numbers Behind Carlos Correa’s Slow Start

For some players like Miguel Sano and Ryan Jeffers, this has been a bit expected given their past records. What is more surprising however is the very slow start of Carlos Correa. Signing as the biggest free agent in the history of a franchise is always going to lead toward lofty expectations, but until Thursday’s notable performance, Correa’s 62 plate appearances had resulted in a disastrous .182/.274/.273 slash line (two big nights, however, can give a lofty improvement; he now sits at .217/.289/.304). As noted by Ken Rosenthal, Correa is a slow starter who hits his best at the height of summer and takes time to find his swing. But looking at past April appearances, the shortstop isn’t entirely following his usual playbook. Beyond slow starts in 2016 and 2017, Correa has managed to post a healthy WRC+ above 120 by the end of the first few weeks of each previous season, including posting a .291/.350/.509 slash line in 60 plate appearances in 2021.

Correa has made up for the problems with his particularly fun to watch defense, and it’s hard to think that the Twins rotation’s ERA wouldn’t be where it is without some of his most exciting plays on the field that have pitchers in awe.

And given a breakout night against the Tigers and a solid outing against Rays pitching, those fears might be over. But it might be also worth asking whether Correa actually approaches the ball differently.

I wanted to look at the data of Correa’s past Aprils, looking at how else he faired around 60 plate appearances in each of his starts. April data is notoriously unpredictable, but can often reveal issues that players might find places to readjust their approach at the place. And as a stathead himself, he might appreciate seeing this laid out (Carlos, if you’re reading, sign off in the comments!)

Perhaps the most notable change from past Aprils is Correa’s strikeout rate, which was sitting right above 30% before Thursday. Previously, Correa has usually started the season by keeping his strikeouts below 20% with only his 2019 season resulting in a quarter of plate appearances as strikeouts. But Correa isn’t just missing the ball; he has been chasing much more and finding less contact on those hits. Correa has usually averaged toward making contact at about 65-75% of balls outside of the zone in April, while this year he’s been closer to just over half, the lowest in Correa’s career Aprils. More so, it’s allowing pitchers to avoid trying to sneak something down Broadway where he often punishes them.

That shouldn’t be a problem in some respects. Buxton has done the exact same: high whiff rate, chasing at a lot of pitches, but then smashing them out of the park at opportune moment. But Correa has another issue that is hurting his production: he isn’t connecting with balls in the zone in the right way. Before Thursday, his BABIP was sitting at a paltry 265, putting him in Kepler territory when it comes to not simply putting the right kind of hit into the field.

As others have noted, the Twins have had an unfortunate series of fly balls in the air, landing softly into outfielder’s gloves given the reportedly de-juiced ball and the cold weather. Not Correa. He’s flying out at almost half the rate of other players, instead grounding it out much more often and leading the AL by grounding into five double plays. As Correa makes contact outside the zone, he’s simply putting it right in the hands of infielders for easy outs.

What makes this strange, however, is Correa is actually hitting the ball harder than ever before as he hits the ground. As the amusing anecdote by MLB’s Do-Hyoung Park, Correa is focused on exit velocity.

He’s leading the team in hard-hit balls—even more than Buxton—but not getting any reward for it. In previous seasons, Correa has had an average exit velocity in his early appearances in the high 80s. This season he’s hitting balls about 93mph on average, coming out to the 93rd percentile for hitters this season so far. Over half of his swings are coming on hard-hit balls, one of the highest in the league. Both those numbers are notably above what he usually puts on for the full season, which might just be statistical noise, but is notable when it becomes the focus on Correa’s goal as a batter.

His plan should be grounds for success—Rays wunderkind Wander Franco has put up almost symmetrical numbers of hard-hit grounders as Correa and is sitting with a .316 batting average. Correa simply isn’t putting the ball in play in the same way; where Franco has found a way to connect his bat with practically anything in the zone and turn them into line drives, Correa’s grounding out to infielders.

There might be a direct reason that’s keeping Correa down and why he’s not putting the right kind of power on his pitches, which may have to do with his perceived adjustment to Target Field. Minute Maid Park is very kind to hitters like Correa that can control their swing and smash to the opposite side of the field. Its home run line sits at an easy 326 feet compared to Target Field’s 387; nine of Correa’s twenty-six dingers last year were oppo shots. When Correa appeared on MLB Tonight in 2018, he discussed how he liked to get in front of the ball and then control his follow-through to put the ball all over the field.

It seems like Correa, perhaps knowing the bad conditions, has tried to adjust accordingly by avoiding pulling the ball. He’s currently going oppo under 9% of the time, well below the league average and notably different from past Aprils where it has ranged from 25% to almost 41%. If you look at his previous season spray charts, you’ll see a player whose specialty is hitting almost anywhere on the field. In fact, one of his most notable hits of Thursday’s game against the Tigers was the oppo dribbler that scored Gio Urshela.

Correa already seems to be finding a way to course-correct; during his 3-for-5 on Thursday, he almost entirely avoided swinging outside of the zone, while his Friday game against the Rays he avoided a single whiff. As Dan Hayes reported, he’s already feeling more comfortable after getting a shortened spring training with only half his usual plate appearances. But how Correa decides to approach the rest of his mechanics as he continues to tinker might be worth following.

What separates Correa—and the reason he can haul the salaries he can—is that he knows how to make these adjustments. Throughout his career, the shortstop has slumped again and again only to find the magic again. When Astros fans questioned him in September 2020, he went onto smash six homers and rake 17 RBIs during the postseason. It’s that ability that led to the Twins signing. Let’s hope he’s turning it around.