The Future Value of Luis Arraez

Twins have a pretty potent infield array of players. I could even see them move Cron and make Gonzo their 1Bman.

You want to make the Gonzo signing look terrible, stick him at first for 140 games. He is a great super utility player, but playing him at one position for a whole season unless forced to by injury is a huge mistake.

On Arraez, I love watching him play and probably even more importantly to me my son loves watching him. IMO the plan should be for him to be the starting 2B next year, but also to have some plan in place for a replacement in case he is hitting .250 and the walks go down, and I hope the plan isn't just Gordon because odds of hit stepping up right away are low.

I predict within five years little leaguers all around Minnesota will be shaking their heads at ball calls, walking a 360 around the batter's box and umpire when they take a strike they don't like, and requesting to wear #2 on their jerseys. 

He has been amazing, but color me skeptical. If he can continue to hit .350, and draw some walks on top of that sure, he's really valuable.

But it's really hard to hit .350, and it's hard to continue to draw walks when you present no power threat.

He's also a weak armed, moderately slow infielder, so it's going to be hard to provide much value elsewhere.

Hope he can keep it up, but I'm going to need to see a couple years of this to fully buy in.

All that said, ride this wave right through the WS.

You are probably remembering the fall of 2014 and Mr. Danny Santana. In my opinion, Arraez is no Danny Santana. But in Sept of '14 I thought Danny was the 2nd coming of Carew too. He came out of nowhere and lit it up for a couple of months.

I've been waiting 3 years to see if Arraez could continue at the Major League level and the definite answer is yes. Could he fall off, only if someone really messes with his hitting style. His walk rate will go up because anything thrown in the zone he hits.

I agree though he looks like he could use a couple years of following Berrios workouts in the offseason.

For questions like this, I turn to my handy copy of the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook for 2019 (available every spring).  Here is where Arraez ranked:

 

Seth Stohs - 22

Cody Christie - 21

Tom Froemming - 25

Jeremy Nygaard - 14

Looks like Jeremy is the only one who let the bong pass at least every other time around 

In all seriousness, Arraez is a player that appears to have one tool that is off-the-charts good (two if you count plate discipline/ zone control as a separate tool) and then four tools that are currently average at best and probably below average.  Those tools can, of course, improve over time (maybe not raw speed) and should be given that opportunity based on the playability of the other-worldly tool(s).   

If you are rating prospects, it's pretty difficult to move a guy like that way up when he doesn't have prospect shine and as much data/film to work with.

I think Thrylos maybe had him ranked the highest, but he tends to be willing to gamble a bit more with ratings against the grain.  He nailed this one, but he's missed a few of those too.

Edgar Martinez wasn’t a big power guy in the minors either. Moreso than Arraez, but not much compared with his peers in prospect land in the mid 80s. He certainly was never fast or particularly adept defensively either.

He did okay.

Thanks Cody for recognizing a player I have thought has been under recognized for several years.

The more I watch Arraez play, the more I question the negative comments about his defense.  He likely will never win a golden glove.  But the player I see is solid at second base and surprisingly adequate at third.  After a couple blunders in left field when he began playing out there, he seems to be adequate there as well.  Perhaps his biggest negative is that he isn't fast and his range, especially at second, is somewhat limited.  

I don't get hung up over his power, or lack thereof.  Someone who has the ability to get on base about 40% of the time while hitting for an average well over .300 has a ton of value, at least on my team.  For me, he would be right next to Garver as being untouchable (among the most recent position players to join the team) when the Twins enter trade discussions this coming winter.

As for the future, although I am certain he will have a year or two during his career that don't meet his norm, I expect him to continue playing as is for the next decade plus.  Considering he is only 22, there is a likelihood that he should even get a bit better at his trade...both with the bat and defensively.

To be fair, it's really difficult to project aliens. I'm happy he is no longer a prospect and I don't have to try and figure this out anymore.

 

He's the most unique hitter in baseball. Not only does he lead the league in line drive % (min. 300 PAs), it's almost 11% above league average. That's fueling an insanely high BABIP, but at the same time he's also in the bottom 3% in hard hit %, bottom 8% in in barrel % and bottom 16% in exit velo. He also grades out as one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball and is only an average runner at 22.

 

I can see why the projections would still be lukewarm on him.

 

If nothing changes and he maintains that ability to hit line drives, however, he's still going to continue to be amazing. If pitchers can find a way to attack him, he's a slower version of Ben Revere who doesn't provide defensive value. If he can take his incredible foundational skills (plate discipline, hand-eye coordination) and prioritize power, he could have a Jose Altuve-like unforeseen power breakout.

 

He's an alien. Nothing is off the table in my mind. He could be an afterthought two years from now, they could be retiring his number 20 years from now or anything in between. I'm just going to enjoy the ride and appreciate this. It's a privilege to be able to watch an incredibly unique hitter who so clearly has worked hard at honing his craft.

I think this is right. The general lack of power previously is going to engender some skeptics, the high BABIP as well. heck the OBP could be a fluke year shot and he'll never be over .400 again. It's fair (especially for those who aren't seeing him every day) to be a little skeptical about how well he'll project. There's just so many outliers all over the place.

That said, there's so many things to like about his approach at the plate that there's reason to believe it could be mostly repeatable. The plate discipline & hand-eye coordination are exceptional. He may be one of those guys that just doesn't have any holes in his swing and keeps shooting balls to the OF...and considering today's pitching approach, he may get those opportunities. Because he's not a HR hitter, pitchers will challenge him.

He's almost certainly not going to hit .350 next year. Doesn't mean he can't hit .320 with an OBP .380-.400 and be a real force at the top of the lineup.

Power is important, but simply getting hits is becoming an underrated and undervalued skill in baseball and Arraez has it.

I don't care if the power never develops and he hits .320+ every year. Just get on base and let the big bats bring you home!

Here's got a little pop in his bat, too.

Is there really enough defensive data to fairly label him as anything defensively?

This narrative is being repeated over and over again and it really doesn’t match the eye test.

My eye sees well below average lateral range that can not be compensated for by playing deeper without a strong arm.

The DRS and UZR are real and more reliable than a batting average for future projection at this point. Neither is near enough sample. I think we can be confident in the on base skills that have been consistent throughout his professional career. I think we have also seen the quality of his approach at the plate. It shouldn’t be ignored that there also have been questions about his arm and range over his professional career.

His bat will play. Like Sano at 3B he is OK at 2B for now but may need to move down on the defensive spectrum as his career progresses.

I will leave with a thought for another article. Is the defensive spectrum changing due to the increase in fly balls and the data used to shift infielders. Will corner Of spots be more important defensively than 3B and 2B with this evolution? Maybe 2B is the perfect spot for Arraez.

I am so impressed with Luis Arraez. How anyone could watch what Arraez has done and not be completely impressed is beyond me. His plate discipline has rivaled Mauer's at his peak. I don't think he should be pushed to add power--this guy is Tony Gwynn not Brian Dozier. If healthy he should be batting first for the Twins for a long time. I think batting titles and maybe even .400 should be his goal--not trying to change who he is to hit a couple extra home runs. Maybe I'm crazy but I think we could be looking a guy who has a chance to be an all time great hitter of the baseball.

Like Chief said, ride the wave.

Perhaps a move to the OF would make sense if the Twins opt to keep him and they don't view him as an adequate enough 2B?

Max Kepler, as a 22 year old, hit 9 homers in 500+ PA's at A+ and AA (almost entirely AA)

Nelson Cruz, as a 22 year old, hit 4 homers 220+ AB's at Short A

Power can develop as players get older--I'm not saying it will for Arraez, and even if it does, it's a gigantic long shot that it would become 30 homer power, but I don't think we should assume Arraez is a slower Ben Revere; after all, Revere, had 15 XBH across 390 AB's (mostly AA, cup of coffee in MLB) at age 22.  Arraez has 34 across 503 AB's (SLG of .350 for Revere, .433 for Arraez).

Perhaps a better way to look at it would be this--below are three age 22 seasons;

Player A--.290/.340/.399/.739 in 630 PA's, 34 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 7.1% XBH Rate, 40 BB, 74 K, .54 BB/K

Player B--.302/.393/.392/.785 in 476 PA's, 23 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 5.9% XBH Rate, 65 BB, 42 K, 1.55 BB/K

Player C--.350/.416/.433/.849 in 566 PA's, 29 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 6.0% XBH Rate, 59 BB, 43 K, 1.37 BB/K

Player C is Luis Arraez (with 58% of his PA's in MLB), Player A is Jose Altuve (100% at MLB), Player B is Joe Mauer (100% at Low A).  Given that Arraez appears to have plate discipline at least as good as Mauer, if not better, and far better than Altuve, I see no reason to think his ability to put the ball in play will suffer.  As he continues to develop power, I suspect he'll settle into a yearly average of 35-40 doubles, and 10-15 homers; more than enough to keep pitchers honest.

In short, I would absolutely offer Arraez a 7 year, $35M contract this offseason, and be willing to go up to 7 and 50 if that's what it takes (although in that scenario I'd tack on a team option for $10M for year 8).

 

In short, I would absolutely offer Arraez a 7 year, $35M contract this offseason, and be willing to go up to 7 and 50 if that's what it takes (although in that scenario I'd tack on a team option for $10M for year 8).

Why?

I said it at the trade deadline to trade Lewis for a number one because of emergence of Araez. The naysayers will poo poo this because they love potential over production. Sundagaard would look good right now.

The guy who since the All Star break has a 4.30 ERA and is striking out less than 9/9, all with an unsustainably low .268 BABIP (his year-long mark is .303)?  The guy who in his last 4 starts (against playoff-caliber teams) has a 7.65 ERA on a high (but not crazy high) .333 BABIP?

I'd be fine with Syndergaard, but Twins Territory needs to collectively stop thinking he's Verlander or Cole.

Why?

So he'll be on the team for the next 7-8 years at a team friendly price...

He's not going to develop significant power with the approach/swing he deploys. But, I'm not sure he'll have to to be valuable. I think a consistently high BABiP is viable...he hits the ball from line to line, uses the whole field. And it doesn't need to be 'insanely' high (currently .380). Even if the BABiP dips to a more 'realistic' .350, with his ability to put the ball in play, and accept the BB, the OBP is still around .370-380, and the OPS is still around .840 to .850.

That's fine with even 'decent', but below-average defense at 2nd. To me it comes down to what type of batting order you can put around him. He's perfect for the 2019 Twins who have all the power they need and are short on OBP and putting the ball in play. I think it's realistic to think he can be an every-day second baseman with some improvement defensively...or a super-utility that plays, basically, every day. But I agree with those that say the BABiP has to stay high-ish for the value to be good, as I don't see significant/consistent power developing in that swing.

Max Kepler, as a 22 year old, hit 9 homers in 500+ PA's at A+ and AA (almost entirely AA)

 

Nelson Cruz, as a 22 year old, hit 4 homers 220+ AB's at Short A

 

Power can develop as players get older--I'm not saying it will for Arraez, and even if it does, it's a gigantic long shot that it would become 30 homer power, but I don't think we should assume Arraez is a slower Ben Revere; after all, Revere, had 15 XBH across 390 AB's (mostly AA, cup of coffee in MLB) at age 22.  Arraez has 34 across 503 AB's (SLG of .350 for Revere, .433 for Arraez).

 

Perhaps a better way to look at it would be this--below are three age 22 seasons;

 

Player A--.290/.340/.399/.739 in 630 PA's, 34 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 7.1% XBH Rate, 40 BB, 74 K, .54 BB/K

Player B--.302/.393/.392/.785 in 476 PA's, 23 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 5.9% XBH Rate, 65 BB, 42 K, 1.55 BB/K

Player C--.350/.416/.433/.849 in 566 PA's, 29 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 6.0% XBH Rate, 59 BB, 43 K, 1.37 BB/K

 

Player C is Luis Arraez (with 58% of his PA's in MLB), Player A is Jose Altuve (100% at MLB), Player B is Joe Mauer (100% at Low A).  Given that Arraez appears to have plate discipline at least as good as Mauer, if not better, and far better than Altuve, I see no reason to think his ability to put the ball in play will suffer.  As he continues to develop power, I suspect he'll settle into a yearly average of 35-40 doubles, and 10-15 homers; more than enough to keep pitchers honest.

 

In short, I would absolutely offer Arraez a 7 year, $35M contract this offseason, and be willing to go up to 7 and 50 if that's what it takes (although in that scenario I'd tack on a team option for $10M for year 8).

Tagging on to this, Kirby Pucket had little power in his early 20's.  He was a pure slap hitter.

At 22: 3 HRs in Rookie ball

At 23: 9 HRs in single A

At 24: 0 HRs in Minnesota, and 1 at AAA

At 25: 4 HRs in Minnesota

And then he got his man muscles, changed his swing a bit, and the rest is history.

Arraez probably never hits 20 HRs, but he will get stronger as he gets older.

While he might develop more pop, I don't think his swing is geared for that, so unless he revamps his approach at the plate, I think any increase in HR would be minimal to moderate. Rod Carew probably would have hit more HR had he changed approaches but then may not have won those batting titles.

 

What's strange to me is that he's already renowned for his plate discipline but I can't think of a Twin who has had more balls called strikes by the umpires this season than Arraez. It almost seems like the umpires are instinctively putting the rookie in his place.

Yeah, I'm not looking for him to change his swing--I think Mauer is a good comp for him here.  Arraez has great zone control, uses all the fields, and isn't trying to hit homers.  Mauer averaged a double every 18.6 PA's, and a homer every 55.7 PA's;  if Arraez matches those rates (he's not far off on doubles, but quite a ways on homers), assuming 600 PA's a year, that's 32 doubles and 11ish homers a year.  Seems reasonable.

To be fair, it's really difficult to project aliens. I'm happy he is no longer a prospect and I don't have to try and figure this out anymore.

 

He's the most unique hitter in baseball. Not only does he lead the league in line drive % (min. 300 PAs), it's almost 11% above league average. That's fueling an insanely high BABIP, but at the same time he's also in the bottom 3% in hard hit %, bottom 8% in in barrel % and bottom 16% in exit velo. He also grades out as one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball and is only an average runner at 22.

 

I can see why the projections would still be lukewarm on him.

 

If nothing changes and he maintains that ability to hit line drives, however, he's still going to continue to be amazing. If pitchers can find a way to attack him, he's a slower version of Ben Revere who doesn't provide defensive value. If he can take his incredible foundational skills (plate discipline, hand-eye coordination) and prioritize power, he could have a Jose Altuve-like unforeseen power breakout.

 

He's an alien. Nothing is off the table in my mind. He could be an afterthought two years from now, they could be retiring his number 20 years from now or anything in between. I'm just going to enjoy the ride and appreciate this. It's a privilege to be able to watch an incredibly unique hitter who so clearly has worked hard at honing his craft.

This.  

Just think there is a lot of hype and good feelings toward a feel good story.  Everyone get's to love the guy, or not, it's everyone's choice on this site.

However, like Tom, I like to sprinkle a little bit of let's give this guy a year or two before we put terribly unreasonable expectations on him.

He's been great this year and a breath of fresh air.  However, I do not think he's going to be a star.  I hope he is, but I think he is more likely not going to be, due to the many things Tom listed above.

We have suggestions stating we should have traded Lewis for a true #1 because we have Luis (lot's of problems with that statement).  Sign him to a 7 year deal, to playing him at 3rd base permanently.  Just way too early for us to be making these kinds of assumptions.

My vote, is he really doesn't have a ton of value, until he can do this over an entire year.  He certainly gives the team hope though.

So he'll be on the team for the next 7-8 years at a team friendly price...

Right - but you don't offer that kind of contract to a guy with under 300 career ABs at the ML level.

Let's let this thing ride out a little more before we start shelling out more money than is even necessary at this point. 

I'll take him.  In this era the HR stroke is over rated and the batting eye is under rated.  He is a disciplined hitter who provides a constant on base presence.  In addition, in this era of shifts, who know what a 2B should look like?  I will be rooting for Luis for a long time - hopefully as a Twin.