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    Nick Nelson

    In baseball, spring is a time of optimism, hope, and endless possibilities. With the regular season days away, and anticipation at its highest following a long and cold offseason, just about everyone is feeling the buzz. The potential. The freshness.

    This year, we should be feeling that vibe more than ever. Things are moving in a legitimately positive trajectory, in terms of upcoming young personnel, and this is the healthiest I can ever remember the team being at the start of April.

    Yet, when you scan the roster that Paul Molitor and his staff have settled on taking north, it's hard not to feeling a sense of puzzlement and deflation.

    Image courtesy of Reinhold Matay, USA Today

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    Shane Robinson. He's a 30-year-old career backup with a .612 OPS in the majors, and he hit .150 last year with St. Louis.

    Blaine Boyer. He's a 33-year-old who was out of big leagues for two years, between a trip to Japan and a brief retirement, before returning last year to throw 40 decent innings for San Diego.

    Chris Herrmann. He's a 27-year-old with a .196 average and .548 OPS in 276 MLB plate appearances. He plays a lot of positions, but none of them all that well, and he's a catcher who rarely catches. He's mostly been an emergency valve at the position, in fact.

    These are players that should generally be viewed as backup options, if not backup backup options. They are the guys who should be stashed in the minors or at the very end of the bench. But each has clutched a spot on the Twins' opening day roster and each is in line to play a fairly significant role from the get-go.

    Robinson, who struggled mightily in 47 games with the Cardinals last year before being released in November, is the only option in center field other than Jordan Schafer, who himself profiles as a backup. Paul Molitor has said he won't be straight-up platooning the two, but Robinson still figures to see some time.

    Boyer has a great story and an intriguing fastball, but there's not a whole lot of reason to believe he's going to be an above-average reliever. It's one thing to have a guy like that at the very bottom of your bullpen chain, but Boyer is not that. The Twins are also carrying Mike Pelfrey, who has zero experience as a reliever and whose usage will be tightly restricted early on. And also J.R. Graham, who hasn't pitched an inning in the majors or Triple-A. And also Tim Stauffer, who's been flat-out horrendous this spring. Boyer, at this point, looks like the No. 2 righty option out of the bullpen.

    Herrmann is not without value, and probably is a better hitter than he's shown in his altogether short big-league time. But with the rest of the bench looking rather thin, and with Herrmann's versatility, he's going to get some tread. As Kurt Suzuki's only backup, he'll probably start once a week behind the plate, where he played all of one inning in the majors last year.

    In fairness, it should be pointed out that there were some extenuating circumstances at play in all these cases.

    Herrmann may have only won his job because Josmil Pinto suffered a concussion late in camp that set him back. Chances are he won't be around long.

    Robinson was the fallback plan when Aaron Hicks was deemed unready. He was the best defensive option to complement Schafer and the Twins are trying to help their pitching staff, which is fair enough.

    Boyer probably wouldn't have stuck around if he didn't make the team, and for whatever reason the Twins want to get a look at him.

    I will say that much of the outrage about certain demotions this spring, often alluding to things like upside and age, strikes me as overblown. None of the moves mentioned above are permanent, and younger players like Trevor May and Michael Tonkin -- who were most likely better options than those that beat them out -- will head to the minors, where they'll wait in line and be available when the time comes.

    Still, the Twins are coming out of the chute featuring a roster that is overly dense with journeymen and long shots; players you expect to find on a last-place team. Like, say, the Twins in August. But, the Twins in April?

    Obviously, I hope some of these odd experiments work out. But if they don't, will Molitor show the same type of unwarranted patience that his predecessor tended to exercise in such situations?

    That could be a key area for the new regime to differentiate itself.

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    Maybe it's just me but it seems to me that the Twins are afraid of failure (Even though they have been failing for 4 years now).  But in terms of letting inexperienced players fail.  No matter how much success or how many innings a player plays in the minors they will not know what the big stage is like until they get there.  It's almost as if the Twins want our minor leaguers to be major leaguers playing in the minors before they finally bring them up.  Now I'm not for bringing up someone who will completely and utterly be in over his head on the big team, but if someone like Meyer or May comes up and fails this year, what does that hurt?  If they ruin their confidence then clearly they aren't ever going to be ready for the Major Leagues.  If I were GM/Manager this is the year I say, "you know what, eff it. Lets have fun and see what these kids can do".  Because in reality what is the difference if they finish the 65-97 or 75-87 beside one place in the division? 

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    I think that Hermann is the guy sent down when Pinto returns.  The options reason is one (Nunez has none), but also, who exactly is Herrman going to be a defensive sub for?  You can use the other half of the Schaffer/Robinson platoon to swap out for Arcia or Hunter if there's a lead.  I don't see Herrman being an upgrade over anyone in the infield either. Nunez at least has a bat.

     

    Now if Hermann plays like he played in AAA last season, that's a whole different story.

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    who exactly is Herrman going to be a defensive sub for?  You can use the other half of the Schaffer/Robinson platoon to swap out for Arcia or Hunter if there's a lead.

    Ideally, you would sub out both corner outfielders at times.  (That's why I thought it might be better to dump Nunez for a real outfielder.)  Not sure if Herrmann would be the guy to do it, but I am guessing they won't do that to Hunter anyway.

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    That was often the case under Gardenhire. I don't think we should assume it will be under Molitor. But as the article concludes, that remains to be seen.

     

    Perhaps Gardy had no say on who made up his roster. Molitor may be in the same boat. I'm sure they get to express their opinion but that doesn't mean their boss is paying much attention to it.

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    Also, Herrmann's value as another catcher is going to be dependent on how far Suzuki regresses. Also, given Schafer/Robinson, it might be wise to use Pinto as a pinch hitter in absolutely every game that he doesn't start. Another reason for Herrmann to be on the roster instead of Nunez. 9th inning OF alignment of Schafer-Robinson-Herrmann is not bad.

     

    Of course Schafer-Farris-Robinson is even better.

    just say no to three catchers
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    Ideally, you would sub out both corner outfielders at times. (That's why I thought it might be better to dump Nunez for a real outfielder.) Not sure if Herrmann would be the guy to do it, but I am guessing they won't do that to Hunter anyway.

    this is the reason why I disagree with Nick's assertion that Robinson/Schafer was the breakout for defense. If the FO cared a bit about OF defense, Arcia and Hunter wouldn't both be the corner outfielders. If you need to sub out both corner outfielders to make a competent fielding outfield AND one of the subs is a catcher, something has gone awry.

     

    Edit: to clarify, I think the hope with CF is for one of them to catch lighting in a bottle and create trade value. I don't think its because the Team particularly wanted Hicks to get AAA time or that Schafer/Robinson were necessarily the best options.

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    just say no to three catchers

    I generally agree. However, I think Pinto's bat is needed on the bench and then it comes down to a choice of Nunez and Herrmann. Nunez doesn't offer anything on the bench. Molitor said he doesn't see him in the outfield. The Yankees dropped him because he couldnt handle 2B. His only real position is 3B.

     

    Escobar is the better utility option defensively and overall. He needs to be in the lineup every opportunity. Any Nunez gets takes away from him. Pinto is the better right handed bench bat. Robinson runs well.

     

    It seems like Herrmann and his ability to catch and play the outfield and first helps more. He also can shuttle back and forth when the need for the 13th pitcher surfaces.

     

    Ultimately it could be neither if both Hicks and Rosario do well.

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    I generally agree. However, I think Pinto's bat is needed on the bench and then it comes down to a choice of Nunez and Herrmann. Nunez doesn't offer anything on the bench. Molitor said he doesn't see him in the outfield. The Yankees dropped him because he couldnt handle 2B. His only real position is 3B.

    Escobar is the better utility option defensively and overall. He needs to be in the lineup every opportunity. Any Nunez gets takes away from him. Pinto is the better right handed bench bat. Robinson runs well.

    It seems like Herrmann and his ability to catch and play the outfield and first helps more. He also can shuttle back and forth when the need for the 13th pitcher surfaces.

    Ultimately it could be neither if both Hicks and Rosario do well.

    i would rather have Pinto's bat in the starting lineup at catcher
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    Pinto is very debatable. Should he have been brought along regardless? Or does his limited innings and AB's during ST...along with a solid ST from Herrmann...indicate it to be more prudent to give him some time to recoup, get AB's, and get ready to come back soon? I'm asking. Because in this case, I can see management's decision actually making sense.

     

    As to Nunez...get off his back. (MHO) Why do people need a scapegoat? Poor pitching is the number one reason for 4 straight bad seasons, followed by lack of offense and clutch offense...at least until last season. You can argue reasons 3 & 4 etc as much as you want, in what ever you want. Nunez, the last man on the bench, versatile positionaly with mediocre to OK glove, decent bat with some pop and decent speed, is NOT the reason this team lost 90 games the past few seasons.

     

    A little perspective in your frustration folks.

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    hy do people need a scapegoat? Poor pitching is the number one reason for 4 straight bad seasons, followed by lack of offense and clutch offense...at least until last season. 

    Overall team defense was a huge factor the last couple seasons, especially OF defense, and made the pitching look even worse than it is.  We have done nothing to address that.

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    I think stability will improve the OF defense. The Twins must have had at least eight guys start more than ten games in the outfield. Many of them didn't belong.

    I'm not sure having two of the worst fielding fielding corner OF in the game play MORE will make the OF defense BETTER, but one can hope.

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    I'm not sure having two of the worst fielding fielding corner OF in the game play MORE will make the OF defense BETTER, but one can hope.

    I'm hoping my instinct that Hunter's and Arcia's defense aren't as bad as advertised is correct, and that my instinct that corner OF defense doesn't matter as much as advertised is correct, and in total we're worrying too much about both.

     

    I've seen too many good teams with immobile corner OFers to think it has a big impact.

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    I'm hoping my instinct that Hunter's and Arcia's defense aren't as bad as advertised is correct, and that my instinct that corner OF defense doesn't matter as much as advertised is correct, and in total we're worrying too much about both.

    I've seen too many good teams with immobile corner OFers to think it has a big impact.

    As long as the corner OFers hit like corner OFers.

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    I've seen too many good teams with immobile corner OFers to think it has a big impact.

    we aren't a good team though.  our pitching staff, such as it is, doesn't need more handicaps than the ones their own mediocre stuff creates..  

     

    seemed to have a pretty big impact on our team the last couple years as outs became singles and doubles which extended innings and allowed runs to score when it would have been three outs. didn't help our CF defense wasn't any good either, and this year it likely won't be either.

     

    I'm curious where does defense matter on a team, if at all?

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    I think if a team has ONE bad defensive corner OF starting for them they may be able to lessen the effect by shading a good-great defensive CF that way while allowing the okay to good OF on the other corner hold his own.  I've seen a lot of that over the years.

     

    Having TWO REALLY bad defenders on both corners plus, at best, an average defensive CF, is going to cause problems as it has the last few seasons. Especially when the pitching staff has underwhelming stuff that results in a lot of contact.

    Edited by jimmer
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    I'm curious where does defense matter on a team, if at all?

    Everywhere. :)

     

    But I think it has more impact in the infield. CF and catcher. Then corner OF.

     

    My belief about outfield is, in general, most of the plays are routine outs, and there will be no difference between Hunter and whoever the best RFer is on those plays. Where Hunter will suffer is on the edge of his range, where a faster player will have a step or two and make an extra catch here and there. But I think we're talking about very few plays. If you could draw a rough circle around Hunter depicting his "range," it wouldn't be much smaller than the circle around the RFer with the best range. The number of balls that fall in delta between the two circles just can't be very many. CFers have more space to cover behind them, so speed to get to balls they don't catch becomes more important, and their range may play up more on balls hot over there head.

     

    I also believe there's more to playing defense than just range. I doubt Hunter's arm is subpar, nor will he often throw to the wrong spot, miss the cutoff, or commit other "errors" that don't show up as "errors."

     

    IF play, on the other hand, is in general comprised of mostly much harder plays. Just fielding a grounder cleanly is way more difficult than catching a ball in the air, so right there defensive ability becomes more important because of the much greater chance of mishandling a batted ball. But that's only part of the job in the infield, to record an out there is often a throw involved, again increasing the risk of a misplay. Infielders also handle the ball more when it's in play, on relays, stolen base attempts, etc. Add that all up, and the difference between a good shortstop and a bad one is pretty significant.

     

    All of which leads me to believe, in the grand scheme of things, the difference between major league corner outfielders isn't something I worry about much.

     

    Just one man's opinion.

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    Everywhere. :)

    But I think it has more impact in the infield. CF and catcher. Then corner OF.

    My belief about outfield is, in general, most of the plays are routine outs, and there will be no difference between Hunter and whoever the best RFer is on those plays. Where Hunter will suffer is on the edge of his range, where a faster player will have a step or two and make an extra catch here and there. But I think we're talking about very few plays. If you could draw a rough circle around Hunter depicting his "range," it wouldn't be much smaller than the circle around the RFer with the best range. The number of balls that fall in delta between the two circles just can't be very many. .

    Well, we can see if your belief s true about the whole circle thing :-)

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-may-have-weakened-a-weakness/

     

    If you go to the link provided, in a stroy entitled 'The Twins may have weakened a weakness, you will see the chart for Heyward and Hunter. It's right below this paragraph:

     

    'It’s difficult to be too hard on Hunter, of course, because he’s 39 years old. The expectation shouldn’t be that he’s going to be anything other than brutal in the outfield, and while you don’t really need a visual aid to compare last year’s worst right fielder to the best, I’ll show you the made/missed charts between Hunter and Jason Heyward anyway:'

     

    I don't think having Hunter would be so bad if he had an above average CF next to him and at least an average corner on the other end.  

     

    Just my opinion

    Edited by jimmer
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