The Defensive Dilemma

You know what I find the most strange? That the Twins are putting up these pitiful strikeout rates year in and year out, while the rest of MLB is striking batters out at an insane pace. It's not like this is 1998. It feels like we're living in a bubble following this team. 

Removing infielders from the OF should help, so will the "moving on" of some Twins OFers.  But, I detect too much of a "fatherly attitude" towards players ("he will make it if we just give him more time...) ignoring that there are others in the organization (not far behind) waiting for their opportunity.  Management has to "cut throats" from time to time. 

Take Arcia, there are hitters coming up that are challenging for a major league job he can't receive the favorite son treatment for much longer.  Arcia has to demonstrate that he is a keeper, and soon.  Then there's the need for starting pitching... .  That's why there are trades.  Management can't complain about pitching while playing substandard fielders and boasting of their MiL system for long. 

The solution is clear and you touched on it at the end. A strikeout takes all chance and randomness off the table and leaves no question as to the outcome of the at bat, unlike a ball put in play.

 

The inexcusable disregard for strikeout pitchers at the MLB level and all the problems that become entangled in the archaic pitching philosophy they prefer is the biggest reason this team isn't winning.

I don't think it should be viewed as an either/or solution. Hitters still put 70-75% of their PA's in play off of elite pitchers in play.  That's a lot of fielding opportunities even if you have an elite staff. 

the one year defensive data shows average or better defensive stats throughout the infield.  it also shows dreadfully awful stats for every OF'er but Shafer and Fuld (not many innings for either).  It's not a big enough sample size to truly determine an individual's defensive ability but collectively it tells a definitive story.  Plays simply were not made (what defensive data measures) by the OF'ers. 

Given the roster makeup and prospect pipeline this is relatively correctable next season and the season after.  Hicks should be better with more experience.  Buxton will be up at some point providing better defense.  I don't hold out much hope for Arcia defensively but maybe he won't be as awful.

I like Nori Aoki as a stopgap OF'er/4th Of'er.

I told my wife yesterday (she nodded her head in acknowledgement) that Arcia has the potential to be a very special power hitter. He has went with the pitch a little better lately, and is a little better at laying off pitches. Subjective observations, yes. But saying there are hitters like him coming up? Plus an outfield of Buxton, Hicks, and Arcia looks different than what we have now. Arcia biggest flaw is going towards center, Buxton will cure half of that. Last thought on Oswaldo, my memory of Tony O when he came up was of a very flawed fielder, with a great arm. He gradually became a more than adequate RF. He was a much higher contact hitter also, but I do not remember relief specialists like you see now. In baseball you cannot win consistently solely with hitting, or defense, or even pitching. Balance is needed, and the Twins need to tweak the pitching and defense each. Imagine this same team with Buxton in center, Hicks in left, and an athletic SS with range to cover up for Plouffie? The first two are available in house, the SS? Santanna?

Trevor May for as bad as he has been has shown the ability to miss bats. Alex Meyer can miss bats. Phil Hughes misses bats. After that it gets worsem I am hopeful that the Nationals decline Spans option and the Twins pick him up. I realize that will cost Parmaleee or Colabello their roster spot and as much as i love collabello he needs to prove he belongs on this team. But i thing if Span shaffer and hicks are roaming the outfield instead of willngham collabello kubal parmalee i think the improvement will be noticable. also if meyer and may start with Hughes you will see a lot of strikouts.Both will help. Obviously there will be growing pains but he product would be an improvement

"In Defensive Efficiency (a measure of how many balls in play are converted into outs), the Twins rank 29th" This statistic has nothing to do with strikeouts. Its a measure of balls put into play being caught. IMO, the infield is adequate and the outfield is horrendous. Its not like the Twins had a great outfield in the past either with Young out there as well. I remember a series against the Rays where the Twins got swept when it could have been the other way around simply because the Rays outfield got to balls most outfielders wouldn't have and the Twins didn't get to balls they should have. As stated above you can hide one poor outfielder but not two. Most of the year we had Arcia and Willingham out there. Replace centerfield with Buxton and left field with Hicks or Rosario or even Schaefer and I am thinking we move up on the list.

In a park that suppresses HR like Target Field a good OF defense is a must. No more  DH types in the outfield.

"They need to decide if they are willing to live with terrible defense (and, therefore, a higher ERA than they should have) or not" Pitchers have some effect on fielding with number of strikes they throw and pace at which they pitch. Twins fielders should have been better prepared knowing more pitches are put in play and aside from Pelfrey I didn't think the Twins pitchers were so bad for pace. I guess this might be offset by Twins pitchers being hit harder when they are hit so lets just call it a wash. In summary, pitching has marginal effect on defensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency has a tremendous effect on pitching.

A large portion of the Twins defensive woes can be attributed to their outfield defense. For most of the season, the team has run out Willingham (bad range, speed) Nunez (a shorstop / infielder) Santana (a shorstop) and Parmelee (not a horrible defender, but ideally still a firstbaseman) to various outfield roles.

I think the defensive woes can be alleviated (at least slightly) by filling these positions with actual outfielders. If the team adds a true LF (as has been addressed countless times here already) and allows Hicks / Buxton to play in CF the defense improves nicely already.

We have to hope that Arcia keeps learning the position and eventually becomes at least league average in RF. Right now, he's a disaster, but he's just too young to chalk up as a lost cause and relicate him to a fulltime DH role.

The infield defense isn't as big of a worry. Plouffe has become better, Dozier is above average, Mauer is improving and looks to be at least league average at first. Santana is the big question mark, but one possible issue out of four roles isn't too bad.

Catcher? Catcher concerns me. While Suzuki is good at blocking balls in the dirt, I haven't been impressed with the rest of his defensive game. Pinto is very much a work in progress and I worry that he'll never develop the tools needed. Like Arcia, he's young enough (older than Arica, but still young) to not quite give up on yet, but catcher is a much more demanding position to field.

There's questions around this team for sure, but they're young enough that I think those questions are to be expected. Hopefully the Twins address the OF (specifically LF) and Hicks finally earns CF - I think that will go a long way in helping the defense improve for next season.

The 29th out of 30 metric isn't all on the defense. No one here is questioning an outfield of Willingham, Hicks and Arcia (Parmalee, Colabello, Santana too) is bad. But is there a stat (I'm sure their is) that shows batted ball speed? The balls that are hit off of our pitchers seem to be squared up more than other team's pitchers.

What I'm saying is is strikeouts lower total chances, but good pitchers make the hitters hit their pitch. It may be beaten into the ground or a lazy pop fly. Bad pitching gives up sceaming liners all over the place (See most Nolasco starts).

There is a reason 5 tool players are hard to find. They are rare. Either they can't hit or they struggle to field. Ben Revere could hit sans the power, but all we cared about here was the lack of arm. We aren't unhitching our wagon to Arcia or any of our cheap young players. We NEED better pitching. That is the best way to help our poor defensive players. Give them less opportunities to screw up and make the balls in play more routine.

1K/inning (a very good rate!) still requires two more outs to finish an inning and nearly all of them occur on a batted-ball-in-play.  Allowing a "4th out" in an inning generally leads to more scoring--it is also deflating to the pitcher.  Tht "4th out" will happen, and the pitcher must learn to work through them, but if that "4th out" becomes a frequent occurance things will get ugly.  It is way too early to consider Arcia a fixture in the OF, he just hasn't put up the hitting numbers that permit overlooking all of the hits/runs he allows by his "defense".  He will be the starting RF next April because there isn't enough competition for a major league position right now--but that competition will soon emerge.  If Sano doesn't "cut it" as a 3B (a real probability) he likely would be moved to the OF.  Plus, there are OFers in the system on their way up--and very soon.

Its time for post game defensive drills.  Especially after games when bone headed plays are made.  Drill the bad habits and mistakes out right after they make them. 

Let's go down the list of players the Twins have put on the field most often:

Suzuki - For all the Twins have raved about his catching, he doesn't throw well at all.  I'm frankly surprised that teams don't run on him more often.  I'll have to take their word for it on the game-calling.

Mauer - He's getting better I think, but for much of the year he looked uncomfortable over at first base.  I think he'll be a more than adequate defensive first baseman, but the trade-off is that Vargas will have to DH, and Sano better stick at third or be moved to the outfield.

Dozier - He makes some nice plays, but the numbers don't like him defensively as much as the broadcasters do. 

Plouffe - Probably the biggest bright spot, he's turned into an above-average third baseman after wandering in the wilderness for so long.  When Sano is ready, will the Twins decide to sacrifice Plouffe's defense to put what might be a square peg in a round hole?

Escobar - He can play shortstop and not embarrass himself.  Probably best suited for a utility role, though. 

Willingham - Since being traded to the Royals, he's been almost exclusively used as a DH, which is probably what he should have been doing while he was a Twin.  Left field is a big question mark going forward. 

Santana - Well... he's fast, I guess.

Arcia - Sometimes when I see Arcia in the outfield, I think I'm looking at an old replay of Delmon Young reflected through a mirror.