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  • The Darvish Contingency Plan

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Twins fans might not want to hear it but Yu Darvish is heading to the Chicago Cubs on a six-year deal that could be worth up to $150 million. Minnesota had made a formal offer to the top free agent pitcher but Darvish’s camp wanted clubs to stretch the deal to six years. The Cubs were willing to make that jump.

    Now that Darvish picked another club, Minnesota’s front office is going to have to act fast. There will likely be a domino effect with the first big name comimg off the board. That being said, there are a couple of different paths the Twins could take to solidify their rotation.

    Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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    Other Free Agent Options

    The second tier options for free agency include names like Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. National baseball writer Jon Heyman reported that “Alex Cobb is believed to be [the Twins] fallback choice for the rotation” after Darvish passes. Minnesota is reluctant to go past four or five years for any free agent pitcher so that also changes their approach with other free agent arms.

    Minnesota has been in contact with the other free agent pitchers but MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger says “their interest in Cobb has been a bit overstated.” Plenty of other teams have expressed interest in signing Lynn but most clubs believe his asking price is too high at this point.

    There may be some other options to add depth to the back-end of Minnesota’s starting rotation. Chris Tillman is coming off of shoulder surgery and could be a strong bounce-back candidate. Another option would be reuniting with Jaime Garcia, who made one start for the Twins last season before being dealt to the Yankees.

    Searching The Trade Market

    The Twins are considering a variety of options with Darvish off the market. 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson gave fans an update on the Darvish situation. In his podcast, he mentions the Twins are “maintaining regular trade talk” with the Rays. Tampa Bay has multiple pitchers who could be dealt and each one is going to come at a different cost.

    Chris Archer is the most coveted Rays pitcher. The former All-Star is signed to a team-friendly deal through 2019 with team options for 2020-21. He won’t turn 30 until next September so Tampa isn’t exactly in a hurry to have him pack his bags. Minnesota might have to deal multiple top prospects and maybe some young major league assets to acquire Archer.

    Another option could be Tampa’s Jake Odorizzi who has compiled a 3.71 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over the last three seasons. He is in his second year of arbitration eligibility so that means he won’t be a free agent until 2020. According to Wolfson, the Rays have a lot of interest in outfielder Max Kepler. Kepler turned 25 this weekend and he could be poised for a breakout season in 2018.

    With Darvish heading to Chicago, what’s the team’s next best option? Another free agent pitcher? Making a trade with Tampa Bay? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    drjim

    drjim 7,100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Nope, don’t see the corallary, nor do I see player opt out options as very bad for teams.

     

    In fact, were I a GM, I’d be inclined to encourage them, in hopes the players do well enough to exercise them.

    Hard to envision how that plan could go awry.

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    Squirrel

    Squirrel 37,605

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

     

    Why would we want Odorizzi?

     

    Odorizzi. 143 IP last year. 7.97 K and 3.83 BB per 9 IP. Had a ridiculous and likely unsustainable babip of .227. Had a FIP of 5.43 and an xFIP of 5.10. Had a fWAR of 0.1. He has gotten worse in each of his last two seasons in practically every meaningful way.

    Yeah ... that's truly the one I can't figure out. No. 

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    cmoss84

    cmoss84 574

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I wonder if Boston is regretting the David Price contract? 7 years $217M ouch. There should never be a team giving any pitcher over 30 a deal longer than 5 years tops. Sad part teams will over pay and get burned in the last 2 years if not more.

    This is why guys like Archer are going to cost so much in trades...

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    tarheeltwinsfan

    tarheeltwinsfan 5,120

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I guess now I'd just sign 2-3 pitchers on one year deals. Take your pick of the litter from Jason Vargas, Tillman, Garcia, Cashner, Hellickson...

    I'd rather see some rookies get the 1st year jitters out and maybe, just maybe one will shine this year. Let's see what we've got in the minor league pitchers. And maybe we can sign another relief pitcher with some of the money we saved on not being able to sign Darvish.

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    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I'd rather see some rookies get the 1st year jitters out and maybe, just maybe one will shine this year. Let's see what we've got in the minor league pitchers. And maybe we can sign another relief pitcher with some of the money we saved on not being able to sign Darvish.

    So the same strategy we have every year.

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    tvagle

    tvagle 2,431

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Appreciate the discussion on 3 Options, my first intention was to not have to read more D-word posts..Mission Accomplished

     

    Maybe a better way to posit this would be to say:

     

    Would you rather trade for 4 years of Archer or 6 of someone like Honeywell and what would each take to get? I'm reading it'd take more for Honeywell than for Archer?

     

    There's a strong Phil Hughes Odor-with-izzi...might have a year or two of success and then those flyballs start carrying further and further...I agree let's roll with the youngsters instead

     

    Would only take Span back if Kepler was sent and it reduced the prospect haul needed...Maybin/Cargo's might be more productive for less than Span in this market

     

    If Kepler and Romero get the talks going for Archer, Falvine have to bring that one home no?

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    tvagle

    tvagle 2,431

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Why in heaven would the Rays would even think about including Honeywell in any trade?

     

    This may be a bit of a stretch, but it is still the off season so why not a little extra hyperbole on why the Rays would consider trading Honeywell

     

    From KLaw's top 100 review on #15 Brent Honeywell

     

    'He's a different sort of character and was even suspended briefly in late August by the team (not the league) for undisclosed reasons, although the Rays universally praise his competitiveness and work ethic."

     

    Here's the reach...there is a precedence for a top 10 ranked prospect being dealt very early in his career

    Trevor Bauer dealt when he was the #5 ranked mlb prospect for a Swedish 1st Baseman (Lars Anderson) and future Twin Killer Didi G...so there could be a similar situation with a player KLaw begins his report with "Honeywell is "the screwball guy" in both senses of the term"...Rays grow tired of the act and look to move him 

     

    May be a toilet paper thin correlation...and with 3 days before the 1st workout it's good to have positive negative thoughts going into the season!

    Edited by tvagle
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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

     

    Here's the reach...there is a precedence for a top 10 ranked prospect being dealt very early in his career

    Trevor Bauer dealt when he was the #5 ranked mlb prospect for a Swedish 1st Baseman (Lars Anderson) and future Twin Killer Didi G...

    And the Arizona GM, manager, and pitching coach were all dismissed from their posts within 2 years of that trade.

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    FormerMinnasotan

    FormerMinnasotan 709

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    According to Jon Heyman the bidding for Jake Arrieta might come down between the Twins and Brewers (of course we have heard this before). But still if it is between us and Milwaukee there is no reason for us to be outbid by a lower market team like Milwaukee for Arrieta. He might have shown regression the last few years, but for what it’s worth Chris Archer has shown regression too and is a few years younger than Arrieta.

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    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 28,724

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    According to Jon Heyman the bidding for Jake Arrieta might come down between the Twins and Brewers (of course we have heard this before). But still if it is between us and Milwaukee there is no reason for us to be outbid by a lower market team like Milwaukee for Arrieta. He might have shown regression the last few years, but for what it’s worth Chris Archer has shown regression too and is a few years younger than Arrieta.

    FWIW, Lavelle E Neal 3 was just on 9 to noon with PA, and he said there's a "zero percent" chance the Twins sign Arrieta.

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    TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan 17,473

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    According to Jon Heyman the bidding for Jake Arrieta might come down between the Twins and Brewers (of course we have heard this before). But still if it is between us and Milwaukee there is no reason for us to be outbid by a lower market team like Milwaukee for Arrieta. He might have shown regression the last few years, but for what it’s worth Chris Archer has shown regression too and is a few years younger than Arrieta.

     

    Yeah, but Milwaukee has a bigger market and better weather.

     

    Wait....

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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    Arrieta is the one Boras client out of the major FA SP.

     

    While some said we didn't have the luxury of beating the Cubs offer for Darvish, I think waiting on Arrieta/Boras is probably a bigger luxury that we can't afford. We can't risk going into the season with our current crop of SP.

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    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Archer was better in 2017 than 2016.

     

    He also tied for 9th in fWAR amongst all qualifying MLB starters (5th in AL). He is consistently very good in a division where the offenses are normally top notch.

     

    Not exactly sure why so many seem to think he isnt really all that great. We trying to make ourselves feel better when we dont get him and be ready to scream overpay if someone else does?

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    Platoon

    Platoon 8,711

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I don't think the opt out clause is cut and dried, bad or good. If you need a pitcher for a window of opportunity and you sign a six year FA, opt out or not 6 yrs is the most years possible. If your projected window is 3 years, win or lose you then have a chance of getting out of that contract. And if he walks, you still have that contract off the books and can resign someone else if you think It makes sense. Now if it's a younger arm, and your window is 4 years and he wants a 2 year out, then it's not a good idea. Point being, opt outs are not simple yes or no's.

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    FormerMinnasotan

    FormerMinnasotan 709

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    FWIW, Lavelle E Neal 3 was just on 9 to noon with PA, and he said there's a "zero percent" chance the Twins sign Arrieta.

    Ok then, how about Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb. It’s cute the Twins want to do something about their rotation yet when push comes to shove they “sit on their hands”. Cobb and Lynn won’t break the bank so to speak and I’m sure they would sign a 4 yr deal. To walk away with none of the top 4 free agent pitchers would tell me the Twins FO either a. doesn’t realize how poor our current rotation is, or b. still stubbornly plays by the old “Twins Way” rules and only signs bottom feeder reclamation projects ala Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, Mike Pelfrey, or Kevin Correa. We need to sign at least one of the top free agent pitchers to prove we are “in it to win it”, IMO.
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    NewClearHarley

    NewClearHarley 93

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Why not just sign Cobb or Lynn and keep the prospects?

    I'm in favor of signing Cobb too - not really a fan of Lynn. Cobb and Straily coming here would give us some proven depth and I like both better than the Jaime Garcia/Jason Vargas types. No harm in finding what the AAA Marlins are asking.

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