The Cases Against Signing Antonio Bastardo Long-Term

Per Doogie Wolfson in his most recent episode of The Scoops on 1500 ESPN’s podcast network, the Twins are certainly monitoring the Bastardo situation. Wolfson said he has been told by those in the know that the Twins are interested in Bastardo at one year and $3-4 million.

As a Twins fan who also keeps fairly close tabs on the minor leagues, I fully support this decision. First, walks bug me. I like strikeouts as much as anyone, but walks annoy me. Bastardo is entertaining to watch as he can be completely dominant at times, but at other times he can be equally frustrating.

The nature of relief pitchers is such that you never really know what you’re going to get. Tony Sipp was a great example of that. He was mediocre at best in his first six seasons, with Cleveland. But in his two years with the Astros, he has been very good.

Bastardo’s career can be summarized simply by looking at his ERA+ in his six full seasons with the Pirates. Since 2010, his ERA+ have been 96, 146, 94, 163, 95, and then 129 in 2015. Of course, we know that ERA isn’t necessarily the best way to note how a reliever pitches. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) numbers have been between 2.76 and 3.34 in those years.

I’d be fine with the Twins signing Antonio Bastardo, but I personally agree that a one-year deal is more ideal than a three year deal. In fact, I would make the case that I’d be fine with a one year, $7 million deal rather than a three year, $18 million deal. And, as much as we (many Twins fans) just want the Twins to sign Bastardo because we are comfortable with a three year, $18 million deal. The other thing to remember is that no team has been willing to offer him the three year, $18 million contract that he is said to be looking for.

The other reason that I feel fully comfortable with the Twins saying they are willing to only go one year on Bastardo is because, as someone who follows the team’s farm system, there are some high-upside, power arms coming and soon.

Last week, Wolfson tweeted, “Radcliff sites Reed, Chargois, Burdi, Rogers, Melotakis, Landa, as all being close. On Landa, ‘Will open eyes this spring.’”

While I believe that Landa has incredible upside because he throws upper-90s gas, I would be surprised if he was ready before mid-2017. The others? I think all five of those are guys who could be ready by mid-season 2016.

• I think Taylor Rogers is ready for a reliever role in the Twins bullpen right away. The main reason to start him in AAA would just be to get him used to working in the bullpen after starting his entire career.
  
• The hope was that Nick Burdi might be ready last year. He really struggled, but then came on strong late in the season and continued that domination in the Arizona Fall League. He made some adjustment, and threw more strikes. He may be given a shot at an Opening Day roster spot, but I would think he could be up before June 1.
  
• JT Chargois missed all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with elbow issues and eventually Tommy John surgery. He returned to Instructional League after the 2014 season and was hitting triple-digits. In his return in 2015, he was throwing in the upper-90s, occasionally hitting 100. He spent half of the season in Ft. Myers, and then was the closer through most of the second half of the season for the Lookouts.The former 2nd rounder, who was co-closer at Rice with Tyler Duffey, will also be given a real opportunity to make the Opening Day roster. Like Burdi, it’s more likely that he begins the season in the minor leagues, but he could be up in the season’s first couple of months.
  
• Mason Melotakis is another left-hander who may not be far off. He missed all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, but reports from Instructs after the season had him hitting 97 again. He was a college reliever who was given the opportunity to start. However, four starts into his 2014 season, he was moved back to the bullpen full time. While I think the Twins will (and should) be cautious with him early in the season, he could prove ready after the All Star break.
  
• Jake Reed struggled in his first full minor league season in 2015. The Twins had him start in AA, and he struggled. He went down to Ft. Myers (a level he had skipped) and did well and was quickly back with the Lookouts. He was tremendous in the Arizona Fall League as well. He will likely start the season in AA again, but is a guy who could be ready before the season is over. I would guess he will debut early in 2017, but certainly is feasible in 2016 as well.
  
• Yorman Landa is the sixth guy that Wolfson said that Radcliff mentioned. Again, he frequently hit 97-98 mph with his fastball. But he missed the first half of 2015 and a bunch of time in 2014 after shoulder surgery. He dominated at Cedar Rapids, but he has a ways to go. I would say the earliest he’d be ready would be by mid-2017.
  

When I mentioned this to Wolfson, he added this tweet, “Radcliff told me they have 13 arms that have a good chance to be here by, at latest, mid-2017. Didn’t realize it was that high.”

So, being me, I had to do a little research. Could I add seven names to the six mentioned above? Of course, when we hear that 13 arms could be ready by mid-2017, it’s important to remember that there are generally only seven or eight arms in a big league bullpen. So, while I have no problem with the statement, we also need to realize that opportunity also comes into play. In other words, we won’t likely see 13 arms before then. But who all could Radcliff be referring to?

I’m going to assume that guys like Ryan Pressly, Michael Tonkin and JR Graham are among the 13. Pressly was part of the Twins bullpen when his season came to an end in mid-summer. He was pitching well. Michael Tonkin has been up and down, literally, a dozen times in the last three years. He is now out of options, so he will have to stick or be potentially claimed by another team. JR Graham spent all of 2015 with the Twins after they used the Rule 5 pick on him. He had the biggest arm in the Twins bullpen last year, but was still learning to pitch in the bullpen. He’s likely to spend a lot of time in Rochester in 2016.

With those three added to the first six, that gives us nine. Let’s see if we can find another four or more. No problem.

• Alex Meyer - 2015 is over. 2016 is a new year. It’s a big year for Meyer, but the talent and potential are still there. He will come to spring training with an opportunity to make the team. If not, he could be a guy who comes up quick if he pitches more like he did in 2014 than 2015.
  
• Corey Williams - Williams missed all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in June of 2015 and pitched well, getting back to AA. He hits 93 and 94, and could add a bit more in 2016. He’s also known as having a great slider. He is certainly one to watch.
  
• Logan Darnell - He struggled early in his transition to the bullpen, but he can be a lefty-reliever option, or at least a long-relief option.
  
• Pat Dean - Somewhat controversial when he was added to the 40 man roster, Dean had a terrific 2015 season in Rochester. Though he tops out at 90, he has a good slider and curveball and could be an option as a reliever.
  
• Luke Bard - Fought injuries and went through a few surgeries since being drafted, but Luke Bard finally was healthy in the second half of 2015. The Twins kept him in Cedar Rapids, but he could move quickly in 2016. He throws hard and has a strong three-pitch mix. He is definitely a sleeper for me in 2016.
  
• Jason Adam - He missed all of 2015 with elbow surgery, but the right-hander was a Top 10 prospect in the Royals system just a couple of years ago. If he can return to form, he is certainly one to monitor this year.
  
• Trevor Hildenberger - He was our choice as Twins minor league relief pitcher of the year in 2015. He began the season dominating in Cedar Rapids, and fared well in Ft. Myers upon his promotion. He also pitched very well in the Arizona Fall League. The side-winder throws harder than most sidearm throwers, but also has confidence in three pitches in any count.
  
• Brandon Peterson - The Minnesota native was our choice for Twins minor league reliever of the year in 2014. He pitched in Ft. Myers and Chattanooga in 2015. At one point, he went 25 innings without allowing a run.
  

There are eight names, so we’re already past 13 arms. Here are a few more:

• DJ Baxendale - He has been a starter most of his minor league career, but with a low-90s fastball and a good slider, he could be a solid bullpen option going forward.
  
• Michael Cederoth - Though the Twins had the hard-thrower starting in 2014 and 2015, he could move back to the bullpen. In college he pitched in relief and topped 100 on occasions. In the bullpen, he could move quickly.
  
• Alex Wimmers - The former first-round pick has been OK in the bullpen. He can become a minor league free agent following the 2016 season if he’s not on the 40 man roster, so I expect he’ll go to AAA and then we’ll see.
  
• Cole Johnson - like AJ Achter, Cole Johnson was drafted in a round that no longer exists, but he has moved up the system and got to AAA in 2015.
  
• Brett Lee - Another guy who has started through his career. He’s a low strikeout guy as a starter, but his stuff is good, so maybe in a bullpen role, he could thrive.
  
• Alex Muren - a ground ball machine, Muren spent some time in Chattanooga in 2015. He was said to be consistently in the mid-90s in 2015.
  

So, as you’re reading those names, you can judge for yourself the level of likelihood that each is going to be ready to contribute to the Twins by mid-2017. Some are probably 90% likely. Others may be closer to 10% But I think that Radcliff’s comment that there are 13 guys who could be ready by mid-2017 is more than fair.

And, I chose not to include JO Berrios, Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves, Randy Rosario, Fernando Romero, Aaron Slegers, Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe would all remain starters for the next two years.

And that brings us back to Bastardo and the Twins willingness to go one year on him or any other reliever. In my mind, it makes sense to offer him the one year. In fact, I’d be fine with offering him more for that one year just to stay away from a multi-year deal.

So, what do you think?

Be sure to follow Doogie Wolfson on Twitter and listen to his podcast, The Scoops, on the 1500 ESPN network.