The Biggest Red Flag for Byron Buxton's Bat

I think you're really on to something here.  The power for Buxton was nice last year, but when you're as FAST as he is, just speaking for myself, I'd like to see him make consistent contact and improve his selectivity to see that game alerting SPEED on the bases more often.  

[i wrote this for another Twins site in 2016--different hitting coach than who the Twins have now, but otherwise, I still think there is merit to it.]

"I start this by saying I know Tom Brunansky knows more about hitting in general than I do, and he knows more about the specifics of a given player than I ever will. There may be a good reason why what follows wouldn’t work for a particular Twins player.
 

Look at this line: .231/.274/.299. This player was when he was 26 years old. That year, he had 351 plate appearances, with a BAbip of .248, striking out 28 times. At the conclusion of that season, he had over 1000 career PA.
 

And then this one, the very next year by the same player: .342/.373/.421 with a new team. He had 578 PA. His BAbip was .368 with 44 strikeouts.
 

Who made this amazing jump 50 years ago? Matty Alou. Leaving the Giants in 1965 to go the Pirates, his approach to hitting was changed by Harry Walker. (I note the rate of strikeouts was a bit higher the second year--maybe as a result of pitchers being a bit more careful with him, more breaking balls, etc. I readily admit, I don't know if the strikeouts were early in the season when he was learning the new approach to hitting.)
 

I post this for thoughts from those of us that can remember Alou in his prime, and ask if Buxton might need to get a heavier bat and stop swinging so hard."

In 2021, I think I'd prefer to see Buxton reach first twice in a game instead of touching all four bases with one swing every few days.  
 

JcS

The only thing I can say is depressing. Otherwise I would just have to say you are really accurate.

its like an echo chamber in here.

I thought I heard last year that he stopped looking at video of him at the plate all together because it was messing with his approach. That, to me, is the biggest red flag of all. 

Buxton has always been someone that can be overcoached.  He listens to everything and keeps trying to make little changes that just messes with him.  He is one of the few I would say just go back to your basics that got you here.  

Personally, I wish he was a better oppo hitter.  One, he could get so many triples if he could because of his speed.  I wish he also understood him being on base is such a big thing.  Pitchers fear him, and defenses worry about his speed.  He is one the HR power pushes have hurt I believe. 

He will never grow to what we want on offense if he never learns to adjust to how he is being pitched.  He thinks every pitch is a fastball it seems and gets burned on sliders away all the time.  Even more so when runners are on base.  That is where taking a moment to think hey I get pitched sliders outside like 90 percent of time when runner in scoring position.  Maybe just take a pitch or two.  Sure they may burn a fastball out there, but it could still be a ball, and unless you are looking to drive the ball to right field, who cares you will just pop it up most likely anyways. That is the main adjustment he needs to make. 

Buxton has always been someone that can be overcoached.  He listens to everything and keeps trying to make little changes that just messes with him.  He is one of the few I would say just go back to your basics that got you here.  

 

I want players to work on their game. But Buxton has been through a lot, both with injuries and adjustments. He's averaged 250 PA per year in the majors, yet he's hit for a ton of power the last two years.

Work on better pitch recognition but let the guy be comfortable and hope he stays healthy. 

He has 1300 career AB. I think he's still adjusting his approach as pitchers adjust to his.

The pull rate is unsustainable, but I don't view it as permanent unless he has a Barry Bonds-type muscular change in the next few years.

It seems to be all about approach. Instead of trying to be Mike Trout, he should have been trying to be more like Ricky Henderson. I hope I am wrong, but I don’t see him putting it all together.

It seems to be all about approach. Instead of trying to be Mike Trout, he should have been trying to be more like Ricky Henderson. I hope I am wrong, but I don’t see him putting it all together.

That is a wonderful analogy.  

Except I don't want him thrown out on the bases at the % that Henderson was.  Still, speed with demonstrations of power often enough to make the outfield play back would be nice. 

JcS

JcS

Yeah. So many red flags. The .577 SLG with the .267 OBP...enabled by a ridiculously high HR/FB ratio in a short sample. He’s done lots of nice things in short samples, but the career 91 OPS+ speaks for itself.

Hear he’s coming into camp with significantly more muscle. Interesting. If he loses even a step in range, the hitting deficiencies are magnified.

I still think he got promoted too soon. He should have worked out his issues with outside breaking balls in AAA. Then he would have been much more successful once he got to the show.