The Best for the Twins Bullpen

A couple weeks ago we wrapped up a bullpen target series. There’s more than a handful of guys profiled, and the acquisition cost is likely going to come in all over the place on any number of names. Minnesota will need to navigate what they’re willing to give up, how much they need in return, and to what extent this year represents an “all in” moment.

From my view the Twins need no less than two bullpen arms. That could be accomplished by acquiring a starter and reliever, effectively pushing Martin Perez into a lefty relief option. Despite a poor body of work as a starter last season Perez posted a 2.45 ERA across 11.0 IP as a reliever. He danced around some danger, but the cutter out of the pen gives him a new weapon and could take his effectiveness up yet another notch.

Operating with the premise of two additional arms coming, these would be my choices.

All In- LHP Will Smith and RHP Seth Lugo

Regardless of the San Francisco Giants current hot streak they should sell. It sounds like they’ll hold onto Madison Bumgarner, but I can’t believe they’d be foolish enough to make Smith unavailable. As an impending free agent, he’s among the most attractive relievers on the market. Smith has worked as a closer for the past two seasons and has posted a 2.50 ERA across 97.1 IP. He’s a high strikeout, low walk type, and the secondary numbers suggest the 30-year-old is for real. The bidding will be tense, but this is a guy that would stabilize Minnesota almost on his own.

New York is another team that needs to sell, but with a GM in over his head they are somewhat of a wild card. Brodie Van Wagenen did a terrible job with the Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz trade, so he’ll likely be more than cautious in negotiations this time around. That could make Noah Syndergaard or Edwin Diaz returns loftier than they should be, but Lugo is a guy that looks the part of an exciting piece. Under contract through 2022 and just 29-years-old, he won’t come cheap. A former starter, he’s posted a 2.76 ERA across 150.0 IP the past two seasons. Another high strikeout, low walk guy, he’d be quite the big splash.

Moderate Play- RHP Ian Kennedy AND LHP Jake Diekman

Purely from a return perspective I’d imagine the general consensus would be to avoid packaging players. In this instance though, I think the Royals deal these two guys together in hopes of eating a bit more money for Kennedy to drive up the return in prospect capital. Both well-traveled veterans, there’s breakout years in play here.

Moved to the bullpen full time this season Kennedy is seeing a big-time breakout. He’s posted a 3.40 ERA but has a 2.16 FIP. The 11.1 K/9 is a career best and he’s walking less batters than he ever has. The velocity has already spiked up an additional two mph and that’s before he’s begun to work with the Twins Wes Johnson. As mentioned, there’s an ugly contract in play that pays him $16.5MM in 2020 but Kansas City would be expected to swallow a considerable portion of that.

Diekman is the greater wild card here but the numbers suggest improvement in a better environment. A 3.36 FIP is behind a 4.75 ERA. He’s always been a strikeout guy, but 13.6 K/9 is easily a career high. The 5.0 BB/9 is concerning but you have to like a lefty with upper 90’s stuff. Jake regressed following a trade midseason a year ago, but you’d have to imagine the Twins pitching infrastructure is superior to that of the Diamondbacks. He’s a 32-year-old impending free agent and shouldn’t bump the cost significantly in a package deal.

With nonexistent movement at this point, and connectable pitching dots, the Twins have been linked to every human with a live arm. We don’t know what path Falvey is going to travel down yet, but the situation in front of him is too good not to take advantage of. There are two pairings above the represent different varieties of talent commitment, but both would drastically improve Minnesota’s chances. We’re drawing closer to a conclusion on this front, and we’ll be better able to understand a future thought process once we reach that point.

Who do you want to see Minnesota target? What is the best-case scenario, and are you willing to pay the price?

Today's Trade Deadline Thread