The Anti-Arcia: Rosario Resurrected In Rochester

Often large outfield assist totals are about opportunity with people running a lot on someone. Alfonso Soriano was able to have a few years where he got a lot of assists too.

Yes, Rosario has gunned some people down, but he's also made some bad throws that allowed runners to advance and he's also allowed runners to advance due to ill-advised throws (i.e., throwing to the wrong place because he over-estimated his ability).

This team has to play smarter baseball.  Too many fundamental mistakes. And for Rosario, between poor defensive fundamentals and the need to swing at anything within a 5 mile radius of the strike zone, he's got major holes in his game.  It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.

This team has to play smarter baseball.  Too many fundamental mistakes. And for Rosario, between poor defensive fundamentals and the need to swing at anything within a 5 mile radius of the strike zone, he's got major holes in his game.  It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.

Don't understand this one bit.  A 24-year-old with a quality minor league track record that has a 120 tOPS+ since being called back up, is one of the better left fielders defensively this season and is an excellent base runner should be a 4th outfielder?  

How about we play him for the next 3 years in a row, so he learns from his mistakes and becomes a smart player when he hits his physical prime versus just writing him off?  

This cut-throat mentality for our sub 26-year-old high-level prospects is frankly dumbfounding to me. 

It is not s much the BABIP as it is BA to BABIP.  A 40 point difference would seem to be the new normal.  68 points for Rosario would probably be unsustainable.  Votto sticks around 50,   It can be done, but rare. It would require resources I do not have to figure out why it has gone up.  Aggressive swingers may make that difference. Higher LD% low IFFB % might play a factor for high BABIP.   Aggressive swings on 2 strike pitches rather than just trying to make contact seems logical, but I would  prefer to see data.

Agreed, but the time to make a play is not when you are allowing the tying run to get into scoring position in the ninth inning, by trying to throw out a runner who really doesn't matter too much...

Quick Eddie update: Phil Miller reports he's in Molitor's dog house after making a dumb decision in the ninth inning of last night's game. Here's a link to the video.

 

Again, it was a stupid idea, but Eddie's arm has been special. Since the start of last season, only Starling Marte has more outfield assists and he's played over 600 more innings.

 

Should be interesting to see who gets the nod out in left tomorrow. Robbie Grossman was a triple shy of the cycle last night, but Rosie did hit a home run off of Friday's starter Danny Salazar earlier this season.

That played bothered me as well. I would paid anything to see a manager pull an outfielder out of a game when they make a bad decision like that throw. It would be a wake up call to all to quit making poor decisions. The Twins are playing for nothing so why not send a message.

A couple things:

*I think he tries too hard sometimes. Your choice of the word "aggressive" to describe him is dead on. But teams also need that kind of player and personality, especially when they are as athletically gifted as Rosario. Time and experience should help Polish him though.

*With his tools and potential, I wouldn't even think of making a 4th OF any time soon. If he plateaus or someone else flat out takes the job, OK. Not saying he will, but what if Granite is the real deal, plays a good LF, and provides speed and OB ahead of Buxton in the lineup, for instance?

*Rosario will be sooooo much the better ballplayer if he just curbs some of that aggressiveness and quits looking like a drunk lumberjack on those pitches that are head high, in the dirt, or headed outside toward the dugout. With his natural ability, just a little more restraint will make him that much more effective and dangerous.

*Looking at his milb track record, he hit and produced everywhere except first his "second" stint following his suspended first half a couple years ago. And while he has never been a BB or OB machine, I believe he never had a AVG vs OB differential that was lower than around 40-42%, meaning he wasn't immune to a walk. Again, a little more Polish and restraint, and look out. A dynamic 6-7 place hitter with quality defense.

I think too much is made of that throw to the plate. He took a risk. A good throw nails him he's out and the game ends if Murphy just hold on to the ball. Royals were giving us an out if you can execute the throw and catch. Dyson could have easily stolen and scored and we let a gettable out walk home. To me, it's similar to his getting thrown out stealing third to end the inning. If you're gonna try it, you better make it. I think he saw it as an easy out and a throw he can make 8/10 times. The risk probably outweighed the reward in that case, but probably not by as much as people are making it out to be. I think they didn't like the result. I mean, again, if murphy catches the ball, even with a fast from perfect throw, the runners out, game over.

Often large outfield assist totals are about opportunity with people running a lot on someone. Alfonso Soriano was able to have a few years where he got a lot of assists too.

 

Yes, Rosario has gunned some people down, but he's also made some bad throws that allowed runners to advance and he's also allowed runners to advance due to ill-advised throws (i.e., throwing to the wrong place because he over-estimated his ability).

 

This team has to play smarter baseball.  Too many fundamental mistakes. And for Rosario, between poor defensive fundamentals and the need to swing at anything within a 5 mile radius of the strike zone, he's got major holes in his game.  It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.

Yes, he would be an excellent 4th OF but in order for that to happen the Twins need to have 3 other OF'ers that are better than him. Right now the only players with that chance are Kepler, Buxton and Palka but they are far from proven also. I will wait to call him a 4th OF'er until somebody supplants him as a starter.

Jham made some interesting points. When I saw him throw it, I thought ugh, go to second. But as it got there, he beat the runner by 5', but off the plate. With a catchable chest high throw. Results matter of course. But the guy who made the biggest mistake was the third base coach, sending home the non tying run with two outs, against probably the best LF arm in baseball in the last two years. The second mistake was the catcher (Murphy?) not getting into postion to catch it, and not catching it, the third mistake was the ball was offline, but not fatelly so. Who did what counts, Grossman and one of the Shaefer twins should have thrown to second. Rosario could have, and I am sure no one would have commented about the player trotting to the plate about the time Dozier had the ball. Molitor is not unhappy the the play went that way, he's unhappy that Rosario did it. Anyone care to guess what his reaction would have been if it had been Plouffe, Suzuki, Dozier, or Mauer?

IF I am reading FanGraphs correctly, and thats a big IF last year Rosario had 16 assists, not sure if they were all clean throw outs. Suzuki had 14 CS. This year it's Rosaio 10 and Suzuki 12. Is that possible? For a LF to throw out more runners than a catcher? Again, I might be misinterpreting the graphs.

IF I am reading FanGraphs correctly, and thats a big IF last year Rosario had 16 assists, not sure if they were all clean throw outs. Suzuki had 14 CS. This year it's Rosaio 10 and Suzuki 12. Is that possible? For a LF to throw out more runners than a catcher? Again, I might be misinterpreting the graphs.

You're not misinterpreting the graphs. What you're looking at can be found on most any sports site.  They are basic defensive stats that have been around for quite some time, no cutting edge info. That info can be found on ESPN, MLB dot com, Baseball-Reference, etc.  I'm really not sure what the point of comparing CS to outfield assists is though.

Yes, he would be an excellent 4th OF but in order for that to happen the Twins need to have 3 other OF'ers that are better than him. Right now the only players with that chance are Kepler, Buxton and Palka but they are far from proven also. I will wait to call him a 4th OF'er until somebody supplants him as a starter.

Well, I didn't say he's a 4th OF now, I said, 'It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.'

Seems clear that the Twins DON'T have better options now so he's a starter now. Hopefully they will in the future.

It's like I don't call Santana an ACE type starter just because he's easily our best starter. His talent level says screams top notch 3 starter or the lower end of #2 starter, not Ace.

If I am pitching to Rosario, why throw him a strike?  Ever.  Let him get himself out.

That level of scouting will permeate the MLB approach to him if he doesn't learn to lay off bad balls.  It will, and his ability to mash will be reduced.

Rosario feels like he is a character in a story about a team that rises from the ashes to win a championship: "and in left field was hotheaded Eddie Rosario. He'd make you scratch your head in wonderment--both at his jaw dropping boldness and at his boneheaded hubris. He was the one at the plate with two outs in game seven of the series. Knowing his proclivity to swing 'like a drunken lumberjack' at anything within arms length of the plate--Manute Bols' arms, that is--the Cubs closer Chapman launched a 104 mph Scud Missile towards the brim of Rosario's cap. The rest, is history."