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But let’s take a step back first. I went into last week’s article wanting a stat that would tell me how often a relief pitcher came in and did his job.A simple, yes or no. Yes, there are similar stats such as FanGraphs' Shutdowns and Meltdowns. There may need to be an accounting for leverage. So, this isn’t a perfect stat, but what it does is says that when Paul Molitor calls a guy’s name, he did what was needed in that situation for the team. In theory, it may tell Molitor whether or not the pitcher should be relied upon.
THE FIRST SEVEN
Let’s start by looking back at the results we showed through seven games. This is through games played April 11.
Through seven games, the Twins bullpen combined to be 8/19 (42%) successful. I don’t know what a good number is, but I’m certain that 42% is not.
We also know that there is enough track record in the above group to know that it wouldn’t stay that bad forever. Even with Perkins going to the disabled list, it couldn’t stay that bad… Or could it?
THE NEXT SEVEN
So, let’s look at how the bullpen performed games eight through 14. Was it any better?
That certainly looks a lot better. In the second set of seven games, the Twins bullpen members were successful in 19 out of 21 opportunities. That’s 90.5% which I have to assume is very good.
Of course, as I mentioned above, four pitchers who were at 100% in the second week threw in last night’s game and went 0/4.
So, here is an update of how the Twins bullpen members have performed through the team’s first 15 games (includes Wednesday’s game too).
THROUGH 15 GAMES
Overall, the team is now 27/44 (61.4%). Again, there is no real context to that number, though I still have to believe that a “good” number should be around 75%, but it may be higher.
If you want to factor in for leverage, clearly Perkins, Jepsen and May are being placed in the highest leverage situations, though we have seen Abad, Pressly and Fien in some as well. Last night, Michael Tonkin was placed in a bases-loaded, one out situation and it didn’t go well, but he was very successful when the Twins needed him to get Mike Trout and Albert Pujols out over the weekend.
Meanwhile, JT Chargois is sitting in Chattanooga, dominating AA hitters. He has faced 15 batters so far. He’s given up no hits, no walks, hasn’t hit a batter. No base runners through five outings. He’s also struck out nine batters. Nick Burdi is back in Chattanooga looking to get his season started off right. There are some options.
Bullpens, and relief pitchers, do have a tendency to be a bit streaky. It is rare to find relievers who are consistently good from year to year. Even within a season, it's normal to have good and bad stretches. It is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out over the season. Who will step up and be more consistent, and how long will Terry Ryan be patient with some of these pitchers?
So, what do you think? Any further observations on the Twins bullpen? Do any of the numbers above surprise you?
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