Sparkman and the Twins

Years ago a young Glenn Sparkman was dominating the Minor Leagues. This drew the excitement of a baseball fan by the name of Connor Kurcon who later found out that several things were amiss in the numbers Sparkman was accumulating. He was much older than the competition, several of his ratios were unsustainable and his outlook as a starter was being boosted by numbers accumulated in relief outings.

In response to his discoveries, he did what any fan of baseball would have done: He made a massive projection system named after the player that inspired it. The “Sparkman” system projects all factors of a pitching prospect’s success and gives them a percentage chance of reaching several fWAR milestones in the MLB before the age of 30. This all may seem irrelevant to Twins fans until you find out that 4 Twins made the top 50 in Sparkman back in 2019. Connor Kurcon provided the updated graphs for these four Twins and I think it gives us a chance to take a look at these interesting projections.

Devin Smeltzer - Expected WAR: 4.7

Smeltzer’s projected WAR has risen since 2019 likely due to the fact that he’s since made his debut. Smeltzer looks like a low ceiling high floor pitcher according to Sparkman which certainly matches what we’ve seen of him so far. Being a soft tossing lefty may eventually lead him to a bullpen role as we saw in 2020, which justifies the less than 10% chance for him to land in between the ace like threshold of 10-14 WAR. Still, it’s a bit surprising to see Smeltzer ranked so strongly. Previously ranking 45th among the games to 50 pitching prospects is nothing to scoff at, and neither is the thought of him being worth nearly 5 wins over the next few years.

Jhoan Duran - Expected WAR: 3.7

Duran surprisingly ranks below Devin Smeltzer in projected WAR in his 20s, and it likely has a lot to do with his lack of MLB debut so far. More surprisingly, Sparkman gives Duran a near 20% chance of not debuting at all despite his 2019 breakout and perceived proximity to making the Twins roster. Some also aren’t so sold on Duran sticking in a rotation spot which may be weighing him down. One thing is for certain in this case, 3.7 WAR from one of the Twins top pitching prospects would be a bit disappointing.

Jordan Balazovic - Expected WAR 4.1

Balazovic is Sparkman’s favorite among the Twins top two pitching prospects, but not by much. Balazovic’s projected WAR decreased since 2019 which likely has a lot to do with the lost 2020. He was in the midst of a breakout before the Minor Leagues shut down, and I’d guess many pitching prospects will see similar dips in projected future value as a result. Balazovic is likely also further behind in his development in Duran and likely further from the MLB, though Sparkman interestingly feels better about Balazovic’s chances of getting there.

Lewis Thorpe - Expected WAR - 8.4

Probably didn’t expect to see Thorpe as Sparkman’s #1 rated Twins pitching prospect huh? Thorpe received a large boost in his projected WAR between 2019 and now likely due to his debut. It’s easy to look at his atrocious 2020 and write him off, but keep in mind that Thorpe has succeeded at every professional level up to this point and his 2020 numbers looked nothing like anything he’s ever produced. Thorpe could very well be a lost cause, but Sparkman seems to think his struggles in the weirdest MLB season in history could have been a fluke. As we get further out from that 60 game season, that possibility seems to be more and more believable.

Sometimes you find yourself in the dead of the offseason and decide to use a minor league signing of Glenn Sparkman as a jumping off point. While projections aren’t the sexiest topic, Sparkman uses a unique system that happens to grade the Twins system highly. If you want to look into the specifics of their mathematical analysis or want to check in on where other prospects rank from 2019, I’d encourage you to give the home page a look. How do you feel about Sparkman’s analysis of the Twins young arms?

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