Sleepin' On Smeltzer

The main return in the Brian Dozier trade from the Dodgers, Devin Smeltzer quickly worked his way up to the Major League club in 2019 and posted decent results for a division-winning team. Smeltzer totaled 49 innings with a 3.86 ERA even though his indicators didn’t quite back it up.

2020 and 2021 were disappointing for the left hander, as he totaled just  20 2/3 innings combined across nine appearances. His 2020 performance got him demoted to Triple-A by year's end and injuries derailed his 2021 season and eventually led to him being jettisoned off the 40 man roster. Smeltzer, however, passed through waivers and remains a Twin, awaiting 2022 in purgatory with no guaranteed roster spot.

It seemed Twins fans soured on a pitcher who was at one time a fan-favorite with a great story. It may have been shinier prospects passing him by or his struggles paired with a lack of exciting stuff. The Twins are not likely to simply let go of the 26 year old so quickly.

Successful soft tossers aren’t exactly common in the MLB, and Devin Smeltzer averaged 89 mph on the fastball in his rookie season with a steady decline the following two years. Look no further than right over the border at Milwaukee’s Brent Suter, however, as one example of how a pitcher with Smeltzer’s skillset can be used as a weapon. The left-hander threw 73 innings of a 3.07 ERA for the Brewers and was an important part of a very good bullpen on a playoff team.

Suter has averaged anywhere from 84 to 88 mph on his fastball since his debut and has been serviceable in any role he’s found himself in since 2016. He’s well below league average in strikeouts and well above average at avoiding free passes much like Smeltzer. His lack of velocity is rare in today’s MLB and using him in short stints appears to have slowed down the league’s adjustment. The Twins likely had this in mind in 2021 when Smeltzer was buried in the depth chart, but injuries never really gave him a chance.

It could also be argued that Smeltzer was on the verge of figuring something out across his last two years in the league. In 2020, he debuted a new slider which posted a whiff rate of over 27%. The result was a much improved K-rate nearing 21%, a manageable number for a pitcher who avoids walks and relies on weak contact.

The walk rate increased a bit more than a pitcher of Smeltzer’s plan of attack would like, but it’s certainly something that could have been ironed out as he got more feel for the pitch. As underwhelming as Smeltzer seemed in 2020, his peripherals actually improved across the board from a 2019 debut that so many found encouraging.

It’s possible Smeltzer was inching towards a new level that made him a reliable Major League pitcher for the next few years. It’s really discouraging that an elbow injury disrupted what would have been a tremendous opportunity for him at the end of a lost 2021 with so many innings available. It was likely a combination of his injury and the Twins' need for 40 man roster spots that led to Smeltzer being put on waivers. The move itself certainly doesn’t hint at the Twins prioritizing Smeltzer headed into 2022.

Still, this is baseball. He’s likely to begin the season as a staple in the Saints rotation and I’d dare to call it likely we see him added back to the 40 man roster and called back up to Minneapolis again at some point. He’s the kind of player you can’t help but pull for, and he does have a respectable skillset to hang around and grab ahold of an opportunity that presents itself.

His raw tools may make him a unicorn if he becomes successful, but it’s far from out of the question. Being off the 40 man may not make a comeback sound incredibly likely. For a Twins team that will likely be pitching starved again in 2022, however, it’s near impossible to rule anything out for a pitcher who’s already shown something at the Major League level. The book may not yet be written on Devin Smeltzer.

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