Should Twins Fans Be Worried about Mitch Garver? There Are Others, Too

Luis Arráez

.216/.286/.243

Reasons for concern:

Luis Arráez practically came out of nowhere in 2019 to have one of the best rookie seasons in Minnesota Twins history. It’s possible that we saw the best of Arráez in 2019, and that he was able to sneak up on the league while being unscouted. Now entering his second season, pitchers have made adjustments and Arráez is struggling early to catch up. In 2019, Arráez thrived on fastballs, producing a .364 batting average against them. This season, pitchers are throwing Arráez less fastballs and more breaking balls, against which Arráez is hitting just .083.

Additionally, Arráez hasn’t yet shown much improvement in the power department. After producing 3 hard hit balls (95+ MPH exit velocity) in a July 26 game against the Chicago White Sox, Arráez has only produced 5 hard hits since. Thus far in 2020, Arráez has only recorded a single extra base hit.

Reasons for confidence:

What made Arráez so special in 2019 was the plate discipline and maturity he showed as a 22-year old rookie. Thus far in 2020, Arráez has proven that his plate discipline was no fluke and that he knows the strike zone like the back of his hand. Thus far in the season, Arráez has lowered his chase rate from 2019 down to just 20% and is seeing more pitches per plate appearances than he did last year. Arráez has an xBA of .268 and a BABIP of .229 showing that he has largely been unlucky this season.

Worry-o-meter: 2/10

Miguel Sanó

.147/.171/.471

Reasons for concern:

Death, taxes, and Miguel Sanó mired in another strikeout-filled slump. To start the 2020 season, Sanó is batting 4-for-30, with 2 of those hits being from his 2-homer game against Cleveland over the weekend. What has been especially concerning for Sanó, as usual for him, are the strikeout numbers. To begin the 2020 season, Sanó is striking out 48% of the time with a sky-high whiff % of 50%. What has been the most concerning for Sanó is the fact that he is not chasing pitches more than usual, but that he is whiffing more on pitches in the zone. Thus far, Sanó has a zone contact % of just 64.2% (Career average is 73.2%). Right now pitchers are throwing Sanó hittable pitches and he is just swinging right through them.

Reasons for confidence:

Miguel Sanó has shown in the past that he can break out of slumps in a big way. During a stretch from mid-to-late June of 2019, Miguel Sanó suffered an extreme 3-for-39 slump with 23 strikeouts. In the middle of the slump, it was identified that Sanó had been tinkering with his swing and was re-learning his swing on the fly. Sanó turned around his season and had a career year as a result. After Sanó’s 2-homer game on Saturday, Sanó commented that he has again been tinkering with his swing and working on his hand positioning which has contributed to his slump to begin the year. Over his past 5 games, Sanó has hit 3 home runs and a double and appears to be turning the corner.

Worry-o-meter: 2/10

Byron Buxton

.174/.200/.348

Reasons for concern:

Byron Buxton has been awful to begin the 2020 season. He has produced only one hit, a single through the infield, and has struck out 6 times in 16 plate appearances. Thus far in the season, Buxton is chasing out of the zone more than ever (43.8%) and has more swinging strikes than ever (17.4%). Buxton has generally seemed pretty lost at the plate thus far and has not yet built off of his strong 2019 season before his shoulder injury. Additionally, Buxton’s foot will be a concern this season until he proves it’s not an issue. Byron has been consistent saying his foot is not yet 100% so, as is usually the case, health will always be a concern for the speedy center fielder.

Reasons for confidence:

Byron Buxton suffered mightily by his extremely short Summer Camp. Buxton came into camp late this Summer after welcoming the birth of his child, and then exited camp early after his ankle injury in an intrasquad game. As a result, Buxton is very much gaining back his timing and feel at the plate in real time. The fact that he has struggled is no surprise and should be expected given his offseason timeline. Despite his plate discipline struggles, Buxton has shown some positives at the plate. In limited plate appearances, Buxton has produced an average exit velocity of 89 MPH, topping out at 109.7 MPH. In Thursday afternoon's game, Buxton finally broke through with a solo home run, and came about 5 feet short from hitting a second. Buxton has been gaining more playing time over the past week, and should get more comfortable at the plate in the coming games as a result.

Will Thursday's showing catapult Buxton back to how he began 2019? Or will poor plate discipline hold him back all season?

Worry-o-meter: 4/10

Mitch Garver

.143/.296/.286

Reasons for concern:

Twins Daily’s Cody Christie wrote up a great piece earlier this week on Mitch Garver’s struggles to begin the 2020 season. In it, Cody brought up that pitchers have adjusted against Garver and are throwing him less fastballs. In 2019, Garver slugged .838 against the fastball, hitting 25 of his 31 home runs off that pitch. As was mentioned with Luis Arráez, pitchers adjusting against post-breakout players is always something of concern. The other concern for Garver is his high strikeout rate (38.7%) to begin the season. Garver’s zone contact % is down nearly 10% from his numbers last year, meaning he is swinging through pitches in the zone. As a catcher, Garver will only be playing in 60-70% of games as it is, so if he is not taking advantage of the more limited opportunities that he gets, much of his value is taken away and there is some reason for concern. Another reason for concern for Garver is that he was a late bloomer. Garver waited until he was 28 years old to break out, so the potential is there that 2019 was an outlier season.

Reasons for confidence:

Garver’s plate discipline and knowledge of the strike zone has again been elite to begin the 2020 season. Garver’s chase rate (9.2%) is lower than it’s ever been in his career and he is walking at a higher clip than he ever has before. Additionally, Garver has been seeing more pitches per plate appearances (5.07) than he ever has in his career. If Garver can continue to stay patient and work himself into fastball counts, there is plenty of reason to believe that he can break out of his slow start. There is some reason to believe that Garver has already started to do so, as on Sunday Garver belted a home run off of Cleveland’s Aaron Civale 412 feet at 102.2 MPH.

Worry-o-meter: 5/10

Josh Donaldson

.182/.296/.318

Reasons for concern:

As the crown jewel of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, nobody could have predicted the start that we have seen from Josh Donaldson. Donaldson has been chasing, whiffing and striking out more than has ever done so in his career. Further, bad luck can’t even necessarily be contributed to his slow start as his expected batting average of .146 shows that his numbers should be even worse than they are right now. The biggest concern with Josh Donaldson, though, is his calf injury. Josh Donaldson has struggled his entire career with calf injuries, missing long parts of multiple seasons due to calf injuries in the past. Will this be another case of a calf injury that contributes to a lost season for Donaldson? Rocco Baldelli has been consistent in saying that the injury is minor, but with something that has hampered him so much in the past, there’s certainly reason to have concern.

Reasons for confidence:

Josh Donaldson has notoriously been a slow starter in his baseball career. In 2019, Donaldson posted an OPS 100 points higher in the second half of the season compared to the first. Despite the lower contact % to begin the season, when Donaldson has made contact, he has gotten good wood on the ball. Through the early part of the season, Donaldson is in the 85th percentile in exit velocity and 83rd percentile in hard hit percentage. While the calf injury does present concern, it’s easy to see why the Twins would be taking extra precaution with the Bringer of Rain in a season with expanded playoffs.

Worry-o-meter: 6/10

Which struggling Minnesota Twins hitter are you most concerned about? Most confident in? What does your "Worry-o-meter" read on each of these players? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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