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  • Should The Twins Shop Miguel Sano?


    Cody Pirkl

    After the Twins early exit from the postseason, GM Derek Falvey hinted that some shake ups to the roster's core weren’t out of the question after the regulars disappointed yet again. In what looks to be an unprecedented offseason looming, there are several reasons that may make Miguel Sano the perfect “core” piece to look to trade.

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    Miguel Sano is Good:

    I love Miguel Sano, and you should too. Trading him should make you nervous if you remember a man named David Ortiz. He’s been an above average hitter according to wRC+ in every season but two and is almost 20% above in his career as a whole. In addition, he’s locked up for about $10m/year with a team option through 2023.

    As we all know, Sano is incredibly streaky and swings and misses… a lot. That being said, he also set the pace for Major League Baseball when it comes to average exit velocity, hard hit % and barrel rate in 2020. He also shifted to 1B and held his own at a new position this last year and looks to be a viable option to remain there for the near future if it fits a team’s needs. Sano should fetch a good amount of value on the trade market.

    NL Designated Hitters:

    The National League will likely adopt the DH moving forward, a position some feel Sano is destined for in the future. Despite Sano’s encouraging debut at 1B, it’s fair to wonder what the future holds for him in the field considering his 6’4 frame and injury history. A team could just cut bait on his transition to 1B and utilize him solely in their lineup to avoid injury.

    Furthermore, the DH was sort of sprung on the NL this year, and they largely suffered at that position. Competitive teams relied on players like Matt Carpenter (84 wRC+), Ryan Braun (99 wRC+), and Jay Bruce (83 wRC+) for example. There should be no shortage of teams willing to pay handsomely for a controllable slugger to immediately step in as they try and plan more carefully for a full season of designated hitters in the NL.

    Kirilloff the First Baseman:

    Alex Kirilloff is hopefully here to stay after impressing in his trial by fire in the playoffs. While he played right field and is assumed by many to be a corner outfielder, Kirilloff actually spent close to half of his time at 1B in 2019. The Twins had the foresight to recognize their inevitable log jam in the outfield and began the switch. Kirilloff’s bat appears to be up to the task when it comes to producing at the level of an MLB corner infielder. Furthermore, reports are fairly high on Kirilloff’s defensive prowess on first base. The Twins did a fantastic job in getting Sano acclimated in a hurry, and Kirilloff already has about 300 innings more at the position than he did.

    If the Twins believe in Kirilloff’s bat enough to hand the position over to him, trading Sano opens a nice path to keep Rooker on the team as well as give Larnach a chance in the outfield. All of this while shedding payroll and getting a healthy return for Miguel Sano.

    Do I actively want the Twins to trade Miguel Sano? Not really. The topic of shaking up their core is a bit nerve racking when looking at the regular season success of this squad over the last two years. That being said, if the front office feels they need a change to get over the postseason hump, I’m interested in what they can scheme up.

    There are too many other core pieces that are valuable and affordable i.e. Kepler, Polanco, Buxton. Sano has ample replacement options and players of his skill set may be at an all time high when it comes to trade value. If a shake up of the Twins core is on the horizon, I think Miguel Sano may be the odd man out. Do you agree?

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    To the actual headline of the OP, NO, I don't shop him. Like anyone else on the roster, you listen if someone calls. They might make you a deal you can't pass up. But I don't shop him.

     

    At some point, we all have to get over the fact he wasn't an All Star 3B who looked like a possible HOF player at age 24-25. He won't be 28yo until after 2021 starts. My concern is what he bas been thus far, and what he could be the next 3-8yrs.

     

    1] Despite some regrettable injury situations, he has been mostly 100% physically healthy since getting over the weird/fluke heel injury in early 2019. (Covid early 2020 doesn't count). By all accounts he has grown and re-dedicated himself to better conditioning and preparation.

     

    2] Even with missed time, he has a career OPS of .829 thus far with an OPS+ OF 120. Ummm...thats pretty good folks. If you don't want to allow for 2020 being a weird season for him, or other Twins, or a number of quality and even high profile players from other teams, then I have no arguement for an outlier season than to tell you a bunch of All Star caliber players must just be bums all of a sudden.

     

    He's stubborn and won't adapt? He was heaped with praise in 2019 for his new found conditioning and hard off season work, as well as working with and being attentive to Cruz. His OPS in 2019 was .923 and his OPS+ was 139! He was a major recruiter for Donaldson joining the team and even sent him a video imploring him to sign.

     

    Defensively, he was OK at 1B with some issues. What were those issues? They were two-fold. He was out of place at times after a lifetime playing the left side of the diamond and trying to get to balls he shouldn't have. And he about demolished a couple teammates chasing foul balls he should have let someone else gather in. Those are part of adapting and learning. He caught about everything thrown his way and was good to great in his scoops. He will only get better the more he plays there.

     

    Roster-wise, no doubt he could move to DH in a couple years to acomidate Kirilloff or Donaldson. Maybe 1yr depending on how the roster shakes out eventually. And that's not to say he can't stick at 1B for a few years plus, or fill in there for lineup variation and flexibility.

     

    Trade him, shop him, absolutely NO. There is so much good ahead for him. But listen to offers that are really good? Of course!

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    while I'm high on Rooker, I don't think his 19 MLB at bats outweighs his minor league career. If you're concerned about streaky hitters, replacing a guy like Sano with Rooker will likely not yield better results. I'd rather get a bit more data on Rooker before I rely on him...

     

    As for Sano, I think we're going to have to do some moving around, like it or not. I'm not sure a lineup stacked with boom or bust types is going to get us much more than the elusive play off win, much less a world series. So for the right offer, I'd probably move him... it would have to be a good offer though. 

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    Take the jump.  Trade him.  Kirilloff WILL be a better option in the short term and long term than Sano.  If you follow Kirilloff, you wouldn't be surprised by that statement.  Also, SANO IS NOT AND WILL NOT BE DAVID ORTIZ.  Look up the stats.  The only thing they have in common is size and power.  Every single intangible goes to Ortiz.  Sano is not going to become the next Ortiz.

    Shedding Rosario and Sano will open up space for players who are disciplined and will pan out if you trust what the FO has been doing.

    I like what one mentioned about Larnach in LF and Rooker as the 4th option in the outfield/DH/1B.

    Until Cruz shows significant drop or decline, we need to try to retain him.

     

    Let's part ways with this enigma of Sano and move on.  Trade him to the National League so he won't come back and mash against us.

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    while I'm high on Rooker, I don't think his 19 MLB at bats outweighs his minor league career. If you're concerned about streaky hitters, replacing a guy like Sano with Rooker will likely not yield better results. I'd rather get a bit more data on Rooker before I rely on him...

     

    As for Sano, I think we're going to have to do some moving around, like it or not. I'm not sure a lineup stacked with boom or bust types is going to get us much more than the elusive play off win, much less a world series. So for the right offer, I'd probably move him... it would have to be a good offer though.

     

    I agree it's a little hard to get overly excited about Rooker's 19AB. But I think he "looked ready" which is subjective as an arguement, of course, but an arguement that shouldn't be dismissed, IMO. Previously, he had struggled some when reaching a new level before adjusting. I was pleasantly surprised that he didn't seem to struggle in his SSS. It seems like he's been around for a while now simply because he's a little older...not ancient...and we've been talking about him for a while now. But he's only had 3 milb seasons plus the 2020 taxi squad. He has consistently produced after the previously mentioned adjustments. So maybe we shouldn't be surprised he looked the part in his short time with the Twins.

     

    That Sano is a streaky hitter is no surprise. He may always be to some degree. I had hoped be would build on 2019 to even out the peaks and valleys...certainly the depth and length of the valleys...in 2020, but no. I'm still hopeful that experience and a normal season will show continued development and a more even plane of performance.

     

    I am predicting no goodness or greatness for Rooker in 2021 or beyond, but I wonder if it's accurate to refer to him as a streaky player, despite the aforementioned "level up" adjustments he's had to make in the past. While it's true he is a power hitter prone to SO...313 times in 965 milb AB...he also hit .267 with a .357 OB to go along with his. 505 SLG and .861 OPS. Surprisingly, his quad slash line in the minors is ahead of Sano.

     

    Now, week to week and month to month, I don't know if Rooker has or has not been prone to any large degree of peaks and valleys. And how good he could be is a complete unknown. And I'm not ready to bank on him for 2021 either as a replacement for Sano or anyone else. But watching his short ML stint and looking at his milb numbers again, I'm feeling encouraged.

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    I am all for shopping Sano, or any player at that matter.  We have no players that cannot be had for the right price.  I would not sell low on Sano if Twins feel the interest is low.  I bet you can find 1 team out there that feel they can unlock his ability to make contact at even a 40% clip.  For how hard he hits the ball he will do well if he can decrease his K rate.  He has been around long enough that may not happen, but teams will always be willing to try.  I would be fine moving forward with Sano as well.  I do not even know who would want him or what they have the Twins would want either, but never hurts to look. 

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