Should Any Of The Twins Get A Salvador Perez-Type Extension (The First One)?

Byron Buxton

There’s no getting around how awful Buxton was last year in his relatively short exposure to the majors, hitting just .209/.250/.362 with six walks and 44 strikeouts in 138 plate appearances. Still, you could see flashes of the brilliance that has made him a top-2 prospect in each of the last two years, and his minor league production certainly supported the notion that he’s a future All Star.

Would you sign him to a Perez deal? Yes. Ultimately, Buxton is still more likely to hit his peak than not, and his strikeout rate compares to other 21-year-olds like Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Kemp, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, and Jose Canseco, who struggled in their first exposure to MLB pitching, especially when you consider the high strikeout era we’re currently in.

Miguel Sano

No Twins rookie has had Sano’s level of success with the bat since Tony Oliva, as Sano hit .269/.385/.530 with 18 homers in 335 plate appearances. There simply is no doubt that Sano is going to hit. But he’s also a man with serious questions about where he’ll play and how well he’ll play there. Bill Parker talked on Monday about how there is no real precedent for a player of Sano’s size heading to the outfield at such a young age. We have no idea if he’ll play a passable right field. Likewise, even if Trevor Plouffe were not blocking him, there are legitimate questions about whether he could stay at third base. And first base and designated hitter seem to be taken for the next couple of years by Joe Mauer and Byung-Ho Park.

Would you sign him to a Perez deal? I would, but just barely. By the time the deal was complete, Sano would be free to play first base and, barring catastrophic injury, will still be a force at the plate.

Eddie Rosario

Rosario debuted in May and finished as the Twins’ regular left fielder. He showed good mid-range power, smacking 13 homers and 46 total extra base hits, including a league-leading 15 triples and very good defense at a pretty vital position. He also walked just 15 times with 118 strikeouts in 474 plate appearances, and hit .267/.289/.459 overall as a 23 year old.

Would you sign him to a Perez deal? No. His inability to control the strike zone is a huge red flag for me, as is his lack of a minor league track record. I think Rosario is talented enough to be worth that kind of a commitment from the Twins, but I also think there’s a high enough chance that he will completely implode and pull a Danny Santana that I wouldn’t want to put my team on the hook for it.

Max Kepler

Kepler won the Eastern League MVP award for Chattanooga at 22 years old, and debuted in September, getting just seven plate appearances. He’s a consensus top 50 prospect in the majors, but is unproven.

Would you sign him to a Perez deal? Given that 2015 was his first real success at any level, and the first year he stayed fully healthy, no. I have more faith in him over the long term than I do in Rosario, however.

Tyler Duffey

Duffey seems destined to make the rotation in 2016 after a strong 3.10 ERA and 3.24 FIP with 53 strikeouts and 20 walks in 58 innings across 10 starts last year. Indeed, Duffey’s FIP led the Twins among pitchers who lasted at least 30 innings.

Would you sign him to a Perez deal? God no. Young pitchers exist to break your heart. Duffey’s ceiling is still too low, and the injury risk for just about any young starter is simply too high.

Jose Berrios

Berrios hasn’t even debuted yet, but as the Twins’ best pitching prospect in ages, I guess we should discuss him.

Would you sign him to a Perez deal? No, for the same reason as Duffey. Look, no one has been on the Berrios bandwagon as long as I have, but there simply is too much unpredictability in young arms to ever consider something like that.

Would any of these guys take a Perez-like deal though?

Knowing the same thing we do about the risks of being a pitching prospect, it wouldn’t surprise me if Berrios or Duffey would be open to such a deal. Similarly, Max Kepler might not be willing to bet on his ability to stay healthy over the long term. Rosario, given his success as a rookie, would probably be likely to turn an offer down. Plus, he seems like the kind of guy who would have plenty of confidence in his own ability.

As for Buxton and Sano (and, to a lesser extent, Berrios), I don’t think they have the same incentive to sign that Perez did in 2011. Keep in mind that Perez signed out of Venezuela in 2006 for just $65,000, much of which would’ve had to go to his agent and trainers (the international signing community is a wretched hive of scum and villainy). He was never considered a top 100 prospect by any major organization.

Comparatively, Buxton signed as the number two overall choice for a $6 million bonus. Sano signed out of the Dominican Republic for a record $3.15 million. Berrios got $1.55 million. These guys have already received life-changing money and have far less incentive not to bet on themselves. Plus, they’ve got pedigrees that reinforce the idea that they’re going to be stars.

The story of Salvador Perez is the story of a young player with incredibly little leverage and little track record, but with a team that believed in him. Congratulations to the Royals for knowing what they had in 2011 and for locking Perez in again now. The Twins simply don’t have anyone in that position, where the needs of the player and the needs of the team align so perfectly.