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  • Setting Up For The Second Half


    Nick Nelson

    On Sunday, the Minnesota Twins played their 75th game of the season. Quickly closing in on the halfway point, they are on pace for a 52-110 record. Even if the Twins manage to play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'll finish with 94 losses.

    It goes without saying that the remainder of this season needs to be focused on 2017 and beyond. Here are five steps that the Twins can take to better prepare themselves for the future.

    Image courtesy of David Richard, USA Today

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    1) Install Miguel Sano at third base.

    We've discussed this quite a bit around here, so I won't dwell. It is becoming increasingly clear that Sano should be in the team's plans as a third baseman and Trevor Plouffe – who is enduring a rough campaign – should not. Make the necessary moves to open up the hot corner for Sano, allowing him to regain his comfort level there ahead of next season when the games start mattering again.

    This, in turn, would keep right field open for Max Kepler, who has played well enough to stick.

    2) Roll with Eddie Rosario.

    Rosario was undoubtedly deserving of the demotion he received five weeks ago, but he has responded in a big way. The outfielder has multiple hits in 14 of the 35 games he has played in Rochester, reining in his K-rate and getting back to smashing hard liners all over the field.

    He still isn't walking much, and never will. But even with his ultra-aggressive ways, Rosario can be an impact player and he showed that last year. Bring him up and let him play his game over the final months. Maybe he proves himself to be the clear choice for left field next year. Maybe he builds some trade value for the offseason. Or maybe he reinforces the notion that he's going to be a fourth outfielder at best.

    Incidentally, Rosario has been playing center field regularly in Triple-A, which might put him in line to bump Byron Buxton, who still appears unprepared for MLB pitching.

    3) Return Trevor May to a starting role.

    Unlike many, I was not opposed to using May in a relief role this year. I felt he brought a much-needed strikeout mentality to the bullpen and could be a pivotal piece at the back end if the team contended.

    The most important factor, though, was that this decision was reversible if things didn't play out well.

    It is now safe to say that things have not played out well. During his first month in the bullpen, May was very much the dominating force we hoped he would be. Unfortunately, the fact that he was often Paul Molitor's only trustworthy option led to overuse. May appeared in 17 of Minnesota's first 32 games, seemingly throwing with max effort each time out.

    It's not clear that his unraveling performance and subsequent back issues were related to his usage, but given the fact that May had been operating under a starter's routine for essentially his entire career up until last July, that seems very plausible. Even looking past that element, the Twins are suddenly in need of quality starters given the dire state of their rotation, and May deserves a shot to bolster that unit.

    May made his first rehab appearance in Rochester as a reliever yesterday, which isn't the most promising sign, but hopefully the plan changes.

    4) Recall John Ryan Murphy.

    Murphy's numbers in Triple-A are far from great: he's batting .216 with a .599 OPS, though he's been trending up. The need to get him back on the roster has more to do with the circumstances surrounding him.

    This team has no real answers behind the plate after this year. Kurt Suzuki will be a free agent and likely won't return. Juan Centeno is has been fine as an interim backup but he's not a big-league player. The organization's prospects are not close. Right now, Murphy is the only credible option for 2017, whether we're talking starter or backup.

    We'll have a better idea of his true credibility if he gets a couple hundred plate appearances in the second half.

    5) Let J.T. Chargois loose in the bullpen.

    There's no way around it: Chargois' MLB debut was a complete and total disaster. In his lone big-league appearance on June 11th, he faced eight hitters and was charged with five earned runs on three hits, two walks and an HBP. He was understandably optioned immediately afterward, forced to sit on a 67.50 major-league ERA until he gets another chance.

    That chance ought to come soon. The level of dominance that the fireballing righty continues to display in Triple-A makes it hard to justify keeping him there. Chargois has a 0.48 ERA and 25-to-4 K/BB ratio in 18 2/3 innings with Rochester, and hasn't allowed a run or issued a walk in five appearances since being sent back down.

    Given the major question marks that the Twins now face at the closer spot, they need to begin auditioning potential options quickly. Presently, Chargois arguably has a better case than anyone else in the organization, but he needs to show he can get big-league hitters out. Call him up and lengthen the leash.

    What would be your top priorities for the second half of the season?

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    The Players Project

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      On 6/27/2016 at 7:50 PM, alarp33 said:

    You certainly can disagree.  You asked me a question "Why wouldn't the Twins trade Santana?" when replying to a post I wrote that laid out the reasons I wouldn't trade him. 

     

    Trevor May is not a starter according to the people in charge of this organization.  I hope there are new people in charge by this offseason, but for now there is no reason to assume he will be a rotation option.  

     

    Tommy Milone?  The guy who 6 weeks ago cleared waivers? You think the Twins are going to offer him arbitration and slot him into a rotation spot next season?  Say he stays in the rotation the rest of this season and pitches ok.. ~$6 million arbitration? NO

     

    What makes you think Nolasco or Hughes should be counted on for anything next season, let alone take up 40% of the starting rotation?

    I'm hopeful that May can use some "rehab," time to stretch out a bit, it would be nice to see him in the starting rotation again. I agree that just because the team is bad it doesn't mean you get rid of anybody who has value, but they should always listen. If they get a decent offer for Santana then they should flip him. Next season they'll have Gibson, May, Berrios, and Duffey. Santana fits nicely to complete the rotation but I don't see him as a key piece. The staff has been terrible this year even with him and I don't see him or the staff improving a ton while he stays. The Twins won't miss his contract either. Its a sad statement, but if they're going to have a terrible starting rotation, then it might as well be a cheap one so monetary resources can be allocated to other areas of need (I'm trying to convince myself they will). Also if they can get a player or two who will be ready to contribute in a couple years when the team is (hopefully) better, that is more beneficial than having Santana with the team pitching through losing/mediocre seasons until his contract ends. 

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      On 6/28/2016 at 2:03 AM, DocBauer said:

    Once again, Dozier is an interesting topic. Whether traded now, or after the season, he could bring some actual value. I don't feel the Twins HAVE to trade him, but they should definately listen to offers. I'm now leaning to keeping him for the remainder of the season, play Polanco on a regular basis, and then decide the best course of action in the offseason.

    Even *if* Ryan is willing to trade Dozier, fans shouldn't get upset if he isn't moved at the deadline.

     

    Dozier is a better offseason trade candidate than a deadline trade candidate.

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      On 6/27/2016 at 11:04 PM, ashburyjohn said:

    I seem to recall Bill James long ago calling the ability to draw walks an old player's skill. Maybe that's not quite the same as patience, but it's on that spectrum.

     

    I don't have any stats to back it up one direction or the other, but I'd be more inclined to wait on a player who showed power in the minors, than to wait on a player who showed patience. All else being equal, which it never is. :)

    There has been a lot of discussion about this very question within the sabermetric community. I was just listening to a podcast talk about "ceiling" for position players, and how it just so difficult to predict power development for players. There is a long list of very good players who were supposed to be low-power guys who figured out a way to hit for power and went from mediocre (or even non-prospect) to All-Star. Just looking at the best hitters in baseball so far this year, guys like Matt Carpenter, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, Jackie Bradley Jr, Aledmys Diaz, Ben Zobrist, Mookie Betts all fall under this general category. Most of those guys are carrying ISOs above .200 right now with very little expectation when they were drafted (or even their first few big league seasons) that they would be 20+ homer guys. 

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      On 6/28/2016 at 2:05 PM, markos said:

    Most of those guys are carrying ISOs above .200 right now with very little expectation when they were drafted (or even their first few big league seasons) that they would be 20+ homer guys. 

    Coming from it slightly in the reverse direction, there's a lot of .200 ISO guys, which would make for a good study (for someone with better database skills than me) but is time-consuming to spot check by hand. Just looking at the top 10 guys in MLB this year (.280 and above), the guys like Arenado, Duvall, and Bruce had 20 homer seasons in the minors while in their late teens or early twenties. Ortiz, Rizzo and Bryant were all considered power bats as prospects. Story, Machado, they had double digit HR as teens and brought up young enough that their power was still developing. Lamb and Carpenter reached double digit HR while a little older in the minors, so might be examples of what you're describing, but hardly under the radar to the scouts rating them, I'd have to think. Expectation versus ceiling, might be the farthest you could distinguish.

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