Santiago Starting To Turn Heads

So can we safely say that Santiago is the Bumble Bee of pitchers?  He defies the laws nature of FIP (I.E. Flight).

His swinging strike rate is well above his career norms - 10.5% instead of 8-8.5% (it dipped below that in 2014 but then came back up). On a related note, hitters so far have chased outside the zone much more often than has been the case in the past against Santiago.

So, arguably his xFIP is misleading, regardless of whether he has the true ability to outperform it, because his strikeout rate is lower than would be expected based on his swinging strike %. 

But . . . it's 18 innings. Pitch data seems to indicate that his stuff and command are basically in line with the past. He certainly could have a decent year but there's no reason to think he's stepped up his overall game.

Before we crown either Santiago or Castro as Totally Awesome, let's let the sample size grow a bit.

Before we crown either Santiago or Castro as Totally Awesome, let's let the sample size grow a bit.

His 90.0% LOB, 4.2 HR/FB, .222 BABIP along with 15.3% K% / 5.4 K/9 and 4.76 xFIP makes me think that it will be nice to enjoy the mirage while it lasts (or even better, finding a trade partner ASAP.)

Of course a 1.47 ERA is a mirage just like the 5.58 ERA last season with the Twins was a mirage. I think nearly everyone in this thread expects him to revert back to the average 4.00 (career ERA is a little lower) that he has always been and your stats do nothing to refute that.

I think we should all have the expectation that every GM knows that Santiago will go back to being Santiago. There is no find a trade partner fast because he has had 3 great starts.

The issue that I see the Twins facing is somehow clinging to a .500 record and not selling Santana or Santiago. Of course as a fan of MN sports I expect an 6 game losing streak at some point breaking our hearts. But winning would be great even if we weren't able to pawn off a couple of veterans for mediocre prospects.

EDITED out

 

Baseball is a long, grueling season. I'll ride the ups and downs but I won't let them control me.

 

I also won't wave the Hector Santiago flag loud and proud for the same reason. I'm glad he's off to a good start but he's still Hector-freakin-Santiago.

But Robbie-freakin-Grossman OTOH

I'm looking, as KLAW suggested, for months of good outcomes before I can erase months of bad outcomes from my mind.

I agree. Waiting for Buck to have a 2 for 4 game with 2 doubles and 5 RBI in a 6-4 win. Some will proclaim that Buck is now a star!

I believe consistent hitting will come.

I am, on the other hand, finding it increasingly difficult to be patient.

Hey, I'm still skeptical of the guy. My original thread was a pretty simple question:

 

When do we consider a guy a good hitter? How long does it take?

 

And Grossman has over 450 consecutive PAs of being a very good hitter across parts of two seasons. Is that enough? It's not entirely enough for me personally but now is the time I begin to consider that it's possible this is who Grossman is going forward.

 

Still not convinced, though. If he crosses 600 PAs with this kind of performance, I'll consider Grossman an .800+ OPS hitter going forward.

600 PA's is still just one full season and players have lucky seasons all the time. 

Santana had 430 great PA's his rookie year. Rosario had 480 pretty good PA's his rookie year. But maybe 600 PA's is the magic number.

But Grossman's success isn't driven by unsustainable luck like Santana's was. His fall was predictable. What in Grossman's success looks like luck?

.370 BAPIP

Let's consider him an above average BAPIP hitter and he can maintain a .320-.330 BAPIP. The reduction in BAPIP will knock 60-80 points (or thereabouts) off of his OPS along. Now we are talking about .750-.775 hitter. I can see .750-ish out of him. But .800+? Not really.

And multiple projection solidly put him around .730.

It's definitely a question but I looked at Grossman's peripherals a bit more closely and it's entirely possible he's a .340-.350 BABIP guy. He puts few balls in the air, a decent amount are line drives, and quite a few are on the ground.

 

That's going to lead to an abnormally high BABIP. Also fewer homers than he's probably capable of hitting but that's okay.

So your optimism depends on him ranking around the 10th percentile of all (qualified) batters in BAPIP? Good luck with that.

That would make him about median for corner OFers....a 730-750 OPS. I'd take a median OF right now.

I will take it also. In fact it is what I projected BEFORE the season began when some people wanted to cut him.

That would make him about median for corner OFers....a 730-750 OPS. I'd take a median OF right now.

Until he actually plays in the OF, then his defensive shortcomings make him a liability.