Ryan Jeffers is a Top Ten Catcher

76th percentile whiff rate and 11th percentile K rate. Unless I'm misreading the numbers (possible) somehow he is striking out a lot without swinging and missing a lot. This seems fixable.

... Ryan Jeffers is not good at throwing out runners. He ranks fifth last in this category among catchers in 2022. Also, who cares? Jeffers has had four bases stolen on his watch in 2022, and has thrown out one runner, for a CS% of 20%. Yadier Molina is at 29%. 

I don't disagree with this, but also... bases are generally stolen off the pitcher or pitch selection.  Even Yadi or Pudge in their prime had a difficult time throwing out a runner if the pitcher had a slow/lengthy delivery.  It just puts the catcher behind the power curve. 

24 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

76th percentile whiff rate and 11th percentile K rate. Unless I'm misreading the numbers (possible) somehow he is striking out a lot without swinging and missing a lot. This seems fixable.

I was curious if that meant he had a lot of looking strikeouts, but doesn't appear to be that way.

The only thing that somewhat stuck out below is that maybe he hasn't had too many ABs go deep in his favor.  1 3-0 count so far, 10 2-0, and 3 3-1 counts.  (20% total?)  Which maybe isn't that out of the ordinary.  (Carlos has 21% and Byron has 31%. Random - Byron has swung at all 7 3-1 count pitches. ? ) 
Jeffers also fouls off a lot of pitches.  So maybe he doesn't whiff too often until that final pitch of the inning, when the pitcher attacks with his best pitch to strike him out?

Orrrrr we are just talking about super small sample sizes and one of those will adjust at some point.

8 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

... Ryan Jeffers is not good at throwing out runners. He ranks fifth last in this category among catchers in 2022. Also, who cares? Jeffers has had four bases stolen on his watch in 2022, and has thrown out one runner, for a CS% of 20%. Yadier Molina is at 29%. 

I don't disagree with this, but also... bases are generally stolen off the pitcher or pitch selection.  Even Yadi or Pudge in their prime had a difficult time throwing out a runner if the pitcher had a slow/lengthy delivery.  It just puts the catcher behind the power curve. 

Exactly...Just throw out enough so that everyone isn't trying to take a base.  The Twins did not help out his cause in 2021.  They put Garver in every possible lineup against lefties trying to get his kickstarted, seemingly at Jeffers expense.

The biggest question - who is back up?  I do not see Sanchez staying, I do not see Godoy long term.  Where is the next glove?

26 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

The biggest question - who is back up?  I do not see Sanchez staying, I do not see Godoy long term.  Where is the next glove?

It's a good question.  The best prospects Isola, Camargo, Mack, all seem more likely to be 3rd catcher types.  Maybe they could surprise, but I think getting a veteran backup will probably be a priority in the coming offseasons.

56 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

They put Garver in every possible lineup against lefties trying to get his kickstarted, seemingly at Jeffers expense.

I buy this narrative somewhat too, though the difference between the % of lefties faced by Jeffers and Garver last year was less than I expected when I looked it up.  34% for Jeffers vs 43% for Garver.

Then again, when Garver was out Jeffers was probably seeing nearly every lefty possible, and his OPS was over .800 in June and July last year.  He also had an OPS over .800 in September 2020 when Garver also missed a bunch of time. Whether it was being hampered by not seeing many lefties or just not seeing regular enough at bats, I don't think it could be entirely a coincidence that Jeffers has always been good when he's had the starting catching duties.  Probably those splits are a little bit fluky, but I think they also show that yes, Jeffers is a really good starting catcher.

58 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

... Ryan Jeffers is not good at throwing out runners. He ranks fifth last in this category among catchers in 2022. Also, who cares? Jeffers has had four bases stolen on his watch in 2022, and has thrown out one runner, for a CS% of 20%. Yadier Molina is at 29%. 

I don't disagree with this, but also... bases are generally stolen off the pitcher or pitch selection.  Even Yadi or Pudge in their prime had a difficult time throwing out a runner if the pitcher had a slow/lengthy delivery.  It just puts the catcher behind the power curve. 

The stat of CS% does not mean a catcher is bad at throwing runners out per se.  As the quote in article says he is 1 for 5.  Not sure the 4 that were made against him, but much of the time pitcher has much to do with it, and the runner.  I mean if a pitcher is slow to the plate and the runner is like Buck do we say the catch sucks, or just nothing he can do?  I would even argue catching a lot of guys normally means teams are willing to run on you.  Now if the bases taken and the CS percent is low that is bad.  I remember LeCroy was once pulled mid-inning while with nationals because there was like 6 stolen bases on him in the inning.  That is someone that cannot throw out runners.

Not catcher, but I remember Manny Ramirez having pretty high assist numbers in the OF, putting up 19 one year, 17 another year.  He played 149 games each of those years for a total of 36 assists in 298 games.  Buck has 18 career assists in 497 career games.  Does that mean Manny was better at throwing out runners?  No not at all, it means teams were willing to run against Manny because he was terrible and would get lucky some times.  People hardly run on Buck, unless they know they will make it because he is great at throwing runners out. 

Saying a guy is bad at throwing runners out because he only got 1 of 5 means nothing.  How many times could they have run on him?  Did he even have a chance to get the runner out?  I mean Jeffers may have had perfect throws and the fielder did not catch it, or the runner stole it off the pitcher.   

Better than Garv Sauce....

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

I buy this narrative somewhat too, though the difference between the % of lefties faced by Jeffers and Garver last year was less than I expected when I looked it up.  34% for Jeffers vs 43% for Garver.

Then again, when Garver was out Jeffers was probably seeing nearly every lefty possible, and his OPS was over .800 in June and July last year.  He also had an OPS over .800 in September 2020 when Garver also missed a bunch of time. Whether it was being hampered by not seeing many lefties or just not seeing regular enough at bats, I don't think it could be entirely a coincidence that Jeffers has always been good when he's had the starting catching duties.  Probably those splits are a little bit fluky, but I think they also show that yes, Jeffers is a really good starting catcher.

 

They needed to be focusing on Jeffers development instead of Garver's trade value

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

Better than Garv Sauce....

So far this year:

Garver OPS+ 79

Jeffers OPS+ 125

I like to stop in every once and a while and note that catcher CS stats include pick-off caught stealings. Jeffers' one credited CS this year was a pick-off, so he has thrown out 0 base stealers. He's technically 0-for-4, but realistically, he's 0-for-3 as two steals came on a double steal. Can't throw out both of them!

I've been saying he's got all star ability for awhile now. 

What I'd really like to see is having that catcher coach in the dugout, available to coach him (and Sanchez) between innings, instead of coaching first base. I still think that would serve the team better.

21 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

It's a good question.  The best prospects Isola, Camargo, Mack, all seem more likely to be 3rd catcher types.  Maybe they could surprise, but I think getting a veteran backup will probably be a priority in the coming offseasons.

They are all young. They won’t be ready for next year so I agree on the veteran back up. I am uncertain how you came up with the third catcher assessment at this point in their careers.

I like Jeffers and his future.  However, it is much too early in the season to make a judgement either way.  I think Sanchez, even though he has much more MLB experience is a negative in the catching ranks and needs to be replaced by next year at the latest.

3 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They are all young. They won’t be ready for next year so I agree on the veteran back up. I am uncertain how you came up with the third catcher assessment at this point in their careers.

Isola is in AA and could be in the mix next year.

I'm not saying 3rd catcher is their ceiling, but realistically it is the most likely outcome. It's not meant as a slight, even in a deep system the most realistic outcome for anyone outside the top 20 is some kind role player probably doing a lot of shuttling between AAA. I think looking at prospect lists from 2013 or 2014 can set a good baseline.

I actually think that the Twins' best catching prospects have tended to be underrated lately, and there are some interesting guys in the system right now, but I wouldn't be ready to put any of them in my top 30 right now.

Also, who cares? Jeffers has had four bases stolen on his watch in 2022, and has thrown out one runner, for a CS% of 20%. Yadier Molina is at 29%. Base stealing has become such an irrelevant part of the game that this area of weakness is inconsequential. 

I agree with the main point, but not "who cares." Any free base can haunt, whether via walk, error, or allowed stolen base.

But it's not a super useful measurement in such small sample size, not to mention other variables such as the pitcher and defender.

Jeffers couldn’t throw out my grandmother. I mean he might not throw a runner in May. Teams like the Astros will just abuse him. 

I loved Jeffers as a prospect, but he's on shaky ground for me - he's not hitting all that well outside of a couple games where pulverized the ball, and while he's a good framer, baserunners have been taking advantage of him. Still not sure what to think, but I don't love that Sanchez is the only other option outside of AAAA guys like Godoy.

Jeffers should still be in AAA, we miss Rortvedt immensely much better than run-at-will Jeffers.