Running Down The Hall (Of Fame Ballot)

But 5 seasons of extra starts seems to offset the rate stat difference, IMHO, and make him a much easier HOFer for voters.  Glavine did things that can separate him from Kevin Brown easier than Moose and Schilling did.

It's not like Glavine was ever a K machine or a control freak..

-He was at 7K/9 or higher only twice.

-He only walked less than 2 per 9 once.  

-Mussina AVERAGED over 7K and less than 2BB/9

And Mussina had less than 50 PA against pitchers, Glavine had over 1300 PA against pitchers.. Mussina pitched against better offenses and performed better across the board anyway.  You want to say the extra innings/years help even out the rate stats, well, the fact that Glavine faced weaker competition than Mussina his whole career put the advantage right back to Mussina.

But those 800 more innings is also what got him the 300 wins which was likely another big reason why he gets in first ballot. If Mussina wanted to be a compiler,, he likely only needs another 400 innings to get to 300 wins.  And he'd still have about 400 less innings if he had done that.

So Jayson Stark made an interesting comment,  

 

'I'd even argue he was the greatest No. 1 overall draft pick of all time -- considering he played every game of his career for the team that drafted him..'

 

I love Chipper and he is a slam dunk HOFer, but there's a guy named Ken Griffey Jr.

 

Thoughts?

Chipper's going to get dinged for his off-field life by a few writers, and that's whatever, but I'd not put him in Griffey's class whatsoever. If you want to go on "the greatest #1 pick where who would go #1 was actually a question", then sure...because when guys like Griffey, Harper, etc. were on the board, there was no doubt. Chipper was a Mauer-esque pick for the Braves, eschewing the top-rated guy that season to draft him.

I think he's a HOFer, but I'm probably much lower on Jones overall than most people.  I think he's closer to a fringe HOFer than a shoe-in, elite type guy.

 

I consider Griffey among the elites, Jones can't even touch him IMO.

Wow. I can't support that take whatsoever. Third baseman (and would have been a hell of a shortstop had he not had a Kubel-esque injury before hitting the majors) that basically sits only behind Mantle in most switch-hitting all-time lists (outside of compiling ones that Murray beats him in), .300/.400/.500 guy over his career while playing primarily in the dirt, except for when he volunteered to move to the outfield so the team could bring in the most impact overall player available that particular offseason to assist in the team's pursuit of a second championship in his career.

Crazy part is that I had a conversation with a scout who has been at it a while and told me that before the knee injury, he wrote up a report on Chipper that labeled him as "Eric Davis/Barry Bonds power/speed combination, but with more patience". Crazy to consider that he actually lost that much athleticism and was still a sure-fire first-ballot HOF guy.

I think Chipper is an absolute slam dunk HOFer worthy of first ballot entrance, and he'll get it.  

Never had an amazing year?  Well, he has an MVP, had 5 seasons with an OPS over 1.000 (which is more than 25% of his seasons),  led the league in OPS+ once, has a batting title, had a season where he had an OBP of .470.  Had 10 seasons with an OBP over .400. Had 11 seasons with an OPS over .900 and NEVER had an OPS under .800.

Oh, and he wasn't a 1B or a corner OF, he was a 3B.

BA of .303, OBP .401, SLG% over .529.  141 OPS+. 18 year career with an OBP over .400? Yes please. Not sure how one can have those career numbers and never have an amazing season.

'Some cool Chipper nuggets: He's one of exactly two switch-hitters in history who hit .300 from both sides of the plate over at least 5,000 plate appearances. (The other: Frankie Frisch.) ... He's also one of two switch-hitters in the .400 OBP-.500 SLG-400 HR Club. (The other: Some guy named Mickey Mantle.) ... He finished with more than 100 more walks than strikeouts. And in the expansion era, only four other players with as many home runs as the Chipster could say that (Bonds, Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols, Gary Sheffield). ... And if we're allowed to mention RBIs, guess who drove in more runs than any player in history whose primary position was third base? Yep. Chipper Jones (1,623).'--Jayson Stark

And the WAR argument, for those who care (and many don't).  There are 7 retired 3B that are in the top 10 for bWAR at 3B.  ALL of them are in the HOF.  Beltre (4th), Chipper (6th) and Rolen (10) are the other three in the top 10 and haven't been on a ballot yet.

I understand the position on Jones. He never had an amazing year, but his 96-03 stretch is really impressive, with the 07, 08 coda. He played 18 seasons and never dipped below 1.9 WAR, and it was only his last 3 that he was below 3. That is a really impressive career.

Griffey had an amazing 12 year run, then did very little else.

Um. How do you figure never having an amazing year? In '99, he hit .319/.441/.633 with 41 doubles, 45 home runs, and 25 stolen bases (versus just 3 caught stealing), along with posting a 126/94 BB/K rate. He won the MVP in a near-runaway.

He hit at least 20 home runs for 14 straight seasons, and in that run, he also walked more than he struck out and posted a .310/.407/.548 line. That's a crazy long peak before injuries really took their toll. To finish that run, at 36, he fought through two trips to the DL to post a .364/.470/.574 season, win the batting title and have a 90/61 BB/K ratio at 36 years old.

Even though I'm not a huge WAR guy, I think historical perspective is a decent, directional, contextual use of the stat.

He never exceeded 7.3 (his number in 99). Very, very good season, but doesn't strike me as amazing in context of the time.

(And, to be clear, this is not a reference to PEDs, but the watering down of pitching in context of expansion. Raw numbers are not as valuable).

I think the genius of Jones, as you allude to, is the long stretch of really good play.

Part of the WAR argument there is also that he gets very little credit via metrics for what he did defensively. The "chopper to Chipper" was a call that was made incredibly often in Atlanta, and his ability to scoop barehanded coming in on a ball and throw with accuracy is something that big league third basemen now talk about emulating from him. However, he played behind guys like Glavine and Maddux, which meant that most of the work was done up the middle for infielders, and he really didn't get a ton of work to display his defensive ability.

They are different types of hitters and the career arcs are different, but for the totality of a career, Beltre is a very interesting comp.

And that could be part of the issue. I think Beltre is a no-crap, no-doubt HOFer right now, let alone with 2-3 more years added on.

Eddie Mathews has said that if he were building a "greatest Braves" list, he'd make Chipper the 3B every single day and not think twice, stating that Chipper was the much better player. I think that does say a lot (and is rare that you have two elite all-time guys at a position that rare in Cooperstown both in franchise history).

Beltre wRC+ 115, OPS+ 116, OPS  .818.  Traditional slash line:.286/.338/.480
Chipper wRC+ 141, OPS+ 141, OPS .930. Traditional slash line: .303/.401/.529

Offensively, Beltre isn't close. But defense should and does count. Chipper about average (maybe slightly below, but not too much below). Beltre, on the other hand, AWESOME on D!

And though bWAR has Beltre barely above Chipper, fWAR actually has Chipper higher than Beltre (barely) though I doubt it ends up that way when it's all said and done.

P.S.  Chipper is also 3rd in HRs for 3Bs.

It's absolute madness that Hoffman wasn't a first ballot guy.

 

The Hall of Fame continues to make no sense.

Because saves leader?