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  • Rundown: Twins Pursuit of Pitching


    Tom Froemming

    David Schoenfield of ESPN put together a nice breakdown of who’s left on the starting pitching market. He noted that the Twins may gamble on Clay Buchholz and/or Drew Pomeranz. I wrote about Pomeranz in my search for the next Nathan Eovaldi here at Twins Daily a couple weeks ago, but what about Buchholz?

    Continue reading for more info on Buchholz plus a number of other news & notes items in this edition of the Rundown.

    Image courtesy of © The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK

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    Clay Buchholz had a nice 2.01 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 3.68 K:BB ratio for the Diamondbacks last year. That's pretty awesome, right? This issue is he pitched just 98 1/3 innings in 2018. In fact, Buchholz only logged 7 1/3 innings the prior year, 139 1/3 in 2016 and 113 1/3 in 2015. So this is not a guy you’d want to bank on for innings.

    Still, Buchholz has a 3.69 ERA and 3.86 FIP over the previous four seasons. That puts him 36th in ERA among the 137 pitchers who've thrown 350 innings over the past four years, right between Ervin Santana (3.68 ERA) and Lance Lynn (3.70 ERA). In that same sample, Buchholz has the lowest HR:FB ratio (9.2%) of any pitcher.

    Buchholz missed nearly all of the 2017 season due to a partial tear of his right flexor in his forearm. Arizona was forced to shut him down in mid September this year due to a strained flexor, so that's a pretty big red flag for the 34-year-old. I would certainly prefer Drew Pomeranz, who only is 30, left-handed and has been more durable, but Buchholz is another interesting buy-low, bounce back option if the Twins are inclined to go that route.

    Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press reported that the Twins planned on being creative with their pitching staff again in 2019. Derek Falvey is quoted in the piece as saying “I think we are seeing across baseball a clear trend toward utilizing guys in a different way out of a bullpen. Some are clearly backend guys, some are short-stint types and there is this multi-inning role, whatever you call it. That could be really valuable to us.”

    Also included in that piece is some more steam on Fernando Romero potentially joining the bullpen. Romero had a respectable Major League debut last season, pitching to a 4.69 ERA in 55 2/3 innings with the Twins, but he did get knocked around a little. He averaged 9.7 H/9 and his WHIP was 1.42. Romero made his final nine appearances of the season with Rochester, posting a 4.76 ERA with an uncharacteristically low 6.0 K/9 rate over that span.

    It’s fair to note that along with his MLB debut, Romero also made his Triple-A debut in 2018, so something of an adjustment period was probably to be expected. Hitters at those levels make a pitcher work much harder. They don’t chase bad pitches like hitters in the lower levels. Romero’s never been much of an innings eater over his career, so that could also factor in when considering his future role.

    In his Winter Meetings wrap-up, MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park noted that the Twins are still in search of pitching. Included in that piece is this quote from Thad Levine: "We're trying to make sound business decisions, and there's a lot of supply out there. There's a lot of players on the marketplace still. So we've got a lot of options we can continue to pursue."

    Craig Edwards of FanGraphs observed that last year’s reliever market seems to have carried over. Jeurys Familia signed with the Mets for three years and $30 million while the Dodgers signed Joe Kelly to a three-year, $25 million deal. As Edwards notes, that continues the trend of relievers fetching multi-year deals between $7 and $10 million per season.

    The Twins waited out the market last year, landing Addison Reed on a two-year deal worth $16.5 million on Jan. 15. Reed had a mysterious dip in velocity that coincided by a streak of poor performances, but I’m not so sure there’s any lessons to be learned from that signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if they have extended multiple two-year offers to relievers and are just waiting for those guys to come down from seeking a third year.

    Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic asked “where are the Twins?” in a recent column for The Athletic. He doesn’t offer up an answer to that question, but Rosenthal did call the Twins “a team to watch in the days and weeks ahead.”

    Unlike the Twins, Cleveland was active at the Winter Meetings. But were they buyers or sellers? It’s kinda hard to say. The Indians traded Yonder Alonso to the White Sox for minor league pitcher Alex Call and then were involved in a complicated three-way trade with the Rays and (who else?) Mariners. Cleveland gave up Edwin Encarnacion, Yandy Diaz and Cole Sulser to acquire Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers. There was also a lot of chatter around possible Cory Kluber and Trevor Bauer trades, but those two are still with the Indians, at least for now.

    Speaking of the White Sox, they're meeting with Manny Machado today, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. They may have gained an advantage in acquiring Alonso from Cleveland. He's Machado's brother-in-law

    File this one under better late than never: A commemorative home plate has been installed at U.S. Bank Stadium in celebration of the Twins’ glory days at the Metrodome. It’s located approximately where the dish was in the old dome, which is great because that also means it’s on the main concourse of the new stadium, accessible to all fans.

    Will Leitch took a look at every team’s current, active franchise icon for MLB.com. The Twins? Jose Berrios. Man, that seems weird.

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    I need a love button for this... I do not understand the infatuation with moving a guy who could be a well above average starter to the pen. 

     

    I understand these feelings, but to me, they already took that path with him last year. Quite honestly, Romero wasn't all that good after his first five or so starts with the Twins (at AAA or MLB -at least for as highly regarded as he is around here).

     

    I think it could be worth more to put him into a position where he can learn more at the major league level, and it plays into what he has shown he can do his entire career thus far: be pretty good in short stints.

     

    This idea doesn't stop him from getting moved into the rotation whenever they need him. Going into last year I though he was the perfect candidate to get moved along like the St. Louis Cardinals are known to do with a lot of guys because of how few innings he has thrown relative to how long he's been around. Twins went the opposite way, but maybe they switch course to that now.

     

    I do think he can be a really good starter, but to me there's always been a high risk associated with him for this type of move, too. But either way, I think this could allow you to find out exactly what he can be while also utilizing his talents in the majors from the get-go.

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    I have a buddy of mine who always tries shopping at flea markets and thrift stores looking for antiques, knickknacks etc hoping to score something valuable for cheap. Kind of reminds me of this.

     

     

    They're not thrift store shopping right now. Even if they were, they aren't looking for knickknacks. In the past, they've hit the thrift store looking for useful items. Like Cave, Austin, and Magill for example. That wasn't so foolish. They weren't expecting to find a $200 cashmere sweater for $20 there. Some of us just wish they'd head over to Nordstroms for that special sweater right about now, but alas, it feels like they might be headed into Macy's, and we're holding our breath hoping they ignore the sale signs in front of Kohl's.

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    They're not thrift store shopping right now. Even if they were, they aren't looking for knickknacks. In the past, they've hit the thrift store looking for useful items. Like Cave, Austin, and Magill for example. That wasn't so foolish. They weren't expecting to find a $200 cashmere sweater for $20 there. Some of us just wish they'd head over to Nordstroms for that special sweater right about now, but alas, it feels like they might be headed into Macy's, and we're holding our breath hoping they ignore the sale signs in front of Kohl's.

     

    I'm more worried they are eyeing JC Penney.....but that's a great analogy. Spot on.

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    I need a love button for this... I do not understand the infatuation with moving a guy who could be a well above average starter to the pen. 

     

    We don't know what they're going to do with Romero or the basis for it right now. But isn't it possible that we're the ones overly infatuated by Romero as a starter? Maybe they question his stamina, or his secondary offerings. I wonder if putting him in a BP role is such a bad idea.

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    We don't know what they're going to do with Romero or the basis for it right now. But isn't it possible that we're the ones overly infatuated by Romero as a starter? Maybe they question his stamina, or his secondary offerings. I wonder if putting him in a BP role is such a bad idea.

     

    I've certainly read a national writer or two that think he's a GREAT fit for high leverage reliever, and only an OK fit for starter. 

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    I've certainly read a national writer or two that think he's a GREAT fit for high leverage reliever, and only an OK fit for starter. 

     

    considering that's a standard line with any guy with above average starting capabilities, I'm not so sure it means much. In Romero's case, there's certainly a question of durability, though I'd be really curious if there's a correlation between guys who weren't durable as starters making very durable relievers. 

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    I understand these feelings, but to me, they already took that path with him last year. Quite honestly, Romero wasn't all that good after his first five or so starts with the Twins (at AAA or MLB -at least for as highly regarded as he is around here).

     

    I think it could be worth more to put him into a position where he can learn more at the major league level, and it plays into what he has shown he can do his entire career thus far: be pretty good in short stints.

     

    This idea doesn't stop him from getting moved into the rotation whenever they need him. Going into last year I though he was the perfect candidate to get moved along like the St. Louis Cardinals are known to do with a lot of guys because of how few innings he has thrown relative to how long he's been around. Twins went the opposite way, but maybe they switch course to that now.

     

    I do think he can be a really good starter, but to me there's always been a high risk associated with him for this type of move, too. But either way, I think this could allow you to find out exactly what he can be while also utilizing his talents in the majors from the get-go.

     

    Last year was his debut, and he was pretty good for a while until the league started to catch up with him. That's pretty normal, and it's hardly unreasonable to expect him to adjust moving forward. 

     

    and yes, the idea will stop him from getting put in the rotation. He has to be stretched back out to return to the rotation, so if they go with him in that role starting 2019, he's set in that role for 2019. More importantly, he needs to get that workload up on his arm, and that won't happen with him sitting in the pen in MLB. The MLB pen makes more sense as he nears an innings limit.

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    considering that's a standard line with any guy with above average starting capabilities, I'm not so sure it means much. In Romero's case, there's certainly a question of durability, though I'd be really curious if there's a correlation between guys who weren't durable as starters making very durable relievers.

    It's about secondary offerings, not durability.

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    It's certainly possible that moving Romero into a relief role while he adjusts to MLB hitters could make him more effective. Maybe he's a prime choice to pair with an "opener" strategy as a guy who really doesn't go deep into games currently? I honestly don't know what the right way to manage him is, but he seems like he needs to be part of the equation with that fastball and the wipeout slider.

     

    Buchholtz and Pomeranz do nothing for me.

     

    Buchholtz has one of the weirder careers out there: when he's healthy he's...not all that great. When he's not healthy he's darned good in the limited time. (except for 2017, when he basically didn't play) he's had exactly 1 year where he made over 20 starts and was above average. I don't understand his career, but it's hard to think he's a guy you can count on for...anything.

     

    Pomeranz...I guess he might have a bounceback year, but he looks awfully hittable, walks too many guys. Doesn't look like someone to push Kyle Gibson for the #2 slot on the staff, more like someone to fight with Odorizzi/Gonsalves, Romero, or Stewart for the 4/5 slot. Pass.

     

     

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    I am for any pitcher outside the organization with a career e.r.a. under 4. They need to do something when it comes to this pitching rotation to shake it up a bit and also drive the younger players to actually do something.

     

    I am tired of the Twins continuing to panic mid way through the season for a decent starter when some implodes for 3 or more games. IMO they bring up a bunch if players from AAA who clearly are not ready for a major league start. At least have the option to use them in the bullpen for a couple of games before immediately having them start and sending them back down after a couple of horrid games.

     

    We shaved millions upon millions off the payroll with the promise yet again that they would be active during the offseason. Falvey has zero excuse now in this not being his team now let's see if he actually knows what he is doing.

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    Just something I found interesting about these 2018 stat lines:

     

    Player A

    3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.69 FIP, 3.87 DRA

    Player B

    3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 3.54 FIP, 3.48 DRA

    Player C

    2.01 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.47 FIP, 3.74 DRA

    Player D

    3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 4.13 FIP, 4.21 DRA

     

     

     

     

     

     

    A = Dallas Keuchel

    B = Trevor Cahill

    C = Clay Buchholz

    D = Kyle Gibson

     

    There's a big difference in innings, as Keuchel (204 2/3) and Gibson (196 2/3) got a lot more work than Cahill (110) and Buchholz (98 1/3), but still.

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    Just something I found interesting about these 2018 stat lines:

     

    Player A

    3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.69 FIP, 3.87 DRA

    Player B

    3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 3.54 FIP, 3.48 DRA

    Player C

    2.01 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.47 FIP, 3.74 DRA

    Player D

    3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 4.13 FIP, 4.21 DRA

     

     

     

     

     

     

    A = Dallas Keuchel

    B = Trevor Cahill

    C = Clay Buchholz

    D = Kyle Gibson

     

    There's a big difference in innings, as Keuchel (204 2/3) and Gibson (196 2/3) got a lot more work than Cahill (110) and Buchholz (98 1/3), but still.

    While I would have no problem with Keuchel signing, I think Cahill or Buchholz would be just fine as a SP signing.

     

    But I would like that supplemented with two RP signings. Kelvin Herrera (hopefully two years) and Zach Britton are both fairly young and have excellent track records. Robertson and Miller would also be great options.

     

    Adding Cahill, Herrera and Britton would be a great result for the pitching staff offseason, in my view.

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    The Twins have three potential 2019 FAs locked into their rotation, bringing in a make-due-one-year guy makes little sense, unless the deal is more than one year.  If they are going to add to their rotation they need to bring in someone they can rely on more than this season.  

     

    I'm not sure how competitive the Twins will be this year, given that, I hope we can figure out what we have in Meija, Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, even Thorpe.  In the 2019 offseason, they'll have as many as FOUR spots to fill, and we need to know what internal options we have.  Honestly, it's a difficult position for the front office, but I think they need to see what they've got.

     

    (That said, if Pomeranz or Bucholz is brought in on a very low deal and no guarantee, I'm fine with it; especially if such would lead to a trade, say, of Ordorrizi(sp?)). 

     

    I get where you are coming from, but I can tell you right now. For a real championship ballclub, you have Romero, maybe Thorpe. Romero it's plain to see this guy is nasty, just needs to develop a little more. The rest are fringe major league pitchers, average stuff, hard time commanding the ball, etc. We already know this, so why are we gonna waste a season, expose them to the rest of MLB, then get nothing for them when they bomb out?

     

    Identify guys that have good stuff, that project out as being successful and trade the rest of them. Put a package together while some teams still think these guys have value. Bring them all up next year to pitch to a 6-7 ERA and their trade value is GONE. Do they throw hard? Command pitches? Have a hammer breaking ball? If not, get rid of them. 

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    I don't like the available starters at all. If they're going after pitching in the free agent market, I'd rather it all be in the bullpen.

    I agree with this completely. Get two top end bullpen arms and a third that is decent.

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    I don't like the available starters at all. If they're going after pitching in the free agent market, I'd rather it all be in the bullpen.

    And I agree with that agreement. As much as I'd like another quality starter in the rotation, I think the best bet for the money would be signing a reliever ... or two.

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    If you are of the mindset that seeing what you have is a good policy, I get that.  I also get the division is possible to take with bold moves.  However, you have been giving the Sox the feeling that you are not going to make the moves, so they have started to.  They have the better ranked farm system, so multiple bold moves to jump ahead of you this year, may make it almost impossible to catch up later without catching lightning in a bottle, and all but guaranteeing that your young core moves on in a couple of years without overpays to keep them.  

    Baseball has changed, the names have changed for the Twins, but still see the same mindset in the FO, which is quickly becoming the past.

    The White Sox will be bottom feeders for the next 3 or 4 years minimum. 

     

    Lions, and Tigers, and Bears......oh my!

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    I understand these feelings, but to me, they already took that path with him last year. Quite honestly, Romero wasn't all that good after his first five or so starts with the Twins (at AAA or MLB -at least for as highly regarded as he is around here).

     

    I think it could be worth more to put him into a position where he can learn more at the major league level, and it plays into what he has shown he can do his entire career thus far: be pretty good in short stints.

     

    This idea doesn't stop him from getting moved into the rotation whenever they need him. Going into last year I though he was the perfect candidate to get moved along like the St. Louis Cardinals are known to do with a lot of guys because of how few innings he has thrown relative to how long he's been around. Twins went the opposite way, but maybe they switch course to that now.

     

    I do think he can be a really good starter, but to me there's always been a high risk associated with him for this type of move, too. But either way, I think this could allow you to find out exactly what he can be while also utilizing his talents in the majors from the get-go.

    Completely agree. We need our best pitchers on the field next season. He can always be moved to the rotation in 2020 after receiving valuable experience. 

     

    Romero, Stewart, Mejia, Gonsalves, and even Thorpe may well be ready for the rotation come 2020. 

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    Ok. Thought they would use the money to build a bullpen. Looks like they will sit it out and settle for cheap mediocrity. As a lifelong twins fan I can only say I’ve never been less confident in the organization than I am right now.

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    Ok. Thought they would use the money to build a bullpen. Looks like they will sit it out and settle for cheap mediocrity. As a lifelong twins fan I can only say I’ve never been less confident in the organization than I am right now.

    When you fire the manager, in effect you're saying the players aren't the problem, and the new guy will get more out of them. So, sticking with what appears to be a core makes sense.

     

    But I am perplexed at the apparent lack of interest in acquiring some high-end new talent to replace the expiring contracts and supplement this core, nonetheless. All I'm seeing is buy-low, some-upside, kinds of moves.

     

    If this is a rebuild situation because the core's no good, they could have just stuck with Molitor.

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    I'm starting to wonder if there is going to be any actual pursuit or not. Sigh, I'm beyond bored already. At this point the signing of any warm body with a working arm will be exciting news.

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    I'm starting to wonder if there is going to be any actual pursuit or not. Sigh, I'm beyond bored already. At this point the signing of any warm body with a working arm will be exciting news.

    While a decent number of relief pitchers have signed, there are still some out there. I'm not worried yet.

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