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  • Rundown: Sonny, LeMahieu, Non-Tenders and More


    Tom Froemming
    Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe interviewed new Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and reported that the Twins were among the teams who’ve expressed interest in Sonny Gray (it’s a long article). His bi-polar name is quite fitting. On the “Sonny” side: He’s still only 29, had a 3.17 ERA on the road and won’t take a king’s ransom to acquire. On the “Gray” side: He’s averaged less than 140 innings pitched the past three seasons, had a 6.98 ERA at Yankee Stadium and is only under team control for one more season.
    Image courtesy of © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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    Other teams Cafardo mentions in the mix for Gray are the A’s, Braves, Padres and Rangers. The main thing that stands out as an advantage for the Twins is they seem to be better suited to take on payroll. So if the Yankees are primarily looking for financial relief, boy does that feel weird to say, the Twins have a great shot. Gray is expected to make somewhere around $9 million through arbitration.

    La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported that the Twins “have expressed some interest” in DJ LeMahieu. A three-time Gold Glover at second base, former batting champ and two-time All-Star, LeMahieu certainly has an attractive resume. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs also highlighted his ability to barrel up balls, speculating a power breakout could be possible with an adjustment or two. Still, LeMahieu’s career .264/.311/.362 (.673) line away from Coors Field scares me.

    I’m pretty surprised the Twins (and every other team in baseball) passed on the opportunity to claim Derek Dietrich. He actually has a higher career OPS+ than Brian Dozier and has hit .272/.351/.465 (.816) away from Marlins Park.

    One non-tender candidate I could see being a target for the Twins is second baseman Jonathan Schoop. The Brewers acquired Schoop at the trade deadline, but he’s expected to make $10 million ins his final season of arbitration eligibility. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwakee Journal Sentinel wrote that Milwaukee is “believed to be somewhat torn about what to do” and that the decision could go either way. Schoop, 27, had an incredible 2017, blasting 32 home runs while posting an .841 OPS, but he came crashing down to Earth last season, hitting just .233/.266/.416 (.682).

    Mark Feinsand highlighted one non-teneder candidate for each team for MLB.com. Schoop was among those listed, but there were plenty of other names I could see fitting nicely on the Twins, including relief pitcher Chaz Roe. Give me all the ex-Rays! Roe, 32, had a 3.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 in 50 1/3 innings last season for Tampa Bay.

    The Twins added Nick Gordon, LaMonte Wade and Luis Arraez to the 40-man roster and released Alan Busenitz, allowing him to sign with a team in Japan. We could have some further re-shaping of the 40-man roster coming later this week, as Friday marks the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.

    It’s interesting that the trio of 40-man roster additions could potentially help serve as replacements for the Twins two most logical non-tender candidates. Robbie Grossman and Ehire Adrianza have been fine as role players, but neither offers much upside. It’s not as if those two are expected to break the bank, as they’re expected to cost around $6 million total, but there may be better ways to invest both that money and space on the 25-man roster. Here are the projected arbitration salaries via MLB Trade Rumors. Now that the Twins have added C.J. Cron, things are looking especially bleak for Grossman.

    Michael Achterling of the Pioneer Press gathered what basically amounted to a scrapbook of Joe Mauer highlights from the publication’s coverage of the homegrown star.

    Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors passed along some notes on both Zack Greinke and Paul Goldschmidt’s market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Mariners are actively trying to move Robinson Cano. I’d imagine those teams would have to eat a significant amount of the money still owed to those players ($104.5 million to Greinke, $120 million to Cano) in order to make a deal.

    Another name to note on the trade market: Madison Bumgarner. Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com reported the Giants are “willing to engage teams” in trade talks for MadBum. Bumgarner has built quite the legacy already thanks to postseason heroics, but he’s only under team control for this upcoming season and his FIP has gone up each of the past three seasons.

    Andrew Simon of MLB.com listed nine sleeper free agents to watch. One name I found particularly interesting was Carson Smith. The right-hander only has one healthy season under his belt, but it was a great one. Back in 2015, Smith saved 13 games for the Mariners while pitching to a 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 11.8 K/9. Intriguing buy-low option for the bullpen.

    Also from MLB.com, Mike Petriello took a look at the most extreme home runs of 2018. Guess who homered on the pitch the farthest off the plate? Yup, Eddie Rosario.

    Another prospect list! Eric Cross of FantraxHQ revealed his top 25 prospect list for the Twins. He’s particularly high on Akil Baddoo, who he has in the sixth spot. It’s a fun list, and Cross goes into some more detail on each player than a lot of other outlets. Just a friendly reminder: The 11th annual Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook will be available later this winter.

    Over at Twinkie Town, Thomas Reinking did a deep dive on the value of investing in free agents. The results were not encouraging.

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    I think you are right in general. However, Machado and Harper are special cases. They've hit the market at a young age and should have a great 5 years or so of production. Then you have to deal with the backend of the contract and that's not great. But the goal should be to win a World Series in those 5 years. And that would make it all worth it.

     

    The Twins aren't going to sign one, unfortunately. But I think they should. They have the money.

    Love your post. When it comes to Harper and Machado's contracts, I think they're going to include multiple out-years throughout the duration of the contract. My guess is the first player opt-out is 2-3 years into the contract. Perhaps at the end of the 2021 season when the CBA expires... The second opt-out 5-6 years into the contract.

     

    So there's a chance the team signing him now has to pay the final years if they opt out!

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    My opinion is that Machado would never agree to move to Minnesota no matter how much money is offered. But if the Twins were to make an offer to Machado that exceeded all others by such a wide margin that Machado becomes a Twin, then what? They would still have holes at 3B/1B, OF, C, and both relief pitching and starters and no money left to fill them. But they would have a fancy new toy at shortstop. The Twins need to fill lots of holes, not one. Forget Machado.

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    My opinion is that Machado would never agree to move to Minnesota no matter how much money is offered. But if the Twins were to make an offer to Machado that exceeded all others by such a wide margin that Machado becomes a Twin, then what? They would still have holes at 3B/1B, OF, C, and both relief pitching and starters and no money left to fill them. But they would have a fancy new toy at shortstop. The Twins need to fill lots of holes, not one. Forget Machado.

     

    Well, he's going to be great for years....not just 1-2. I don't understand this argument at all. And, they'd have money to spend still. Just not a ton.

     

    That said, he's not coming here, because they'd never offer him what other teams will. Which is certainly defendable.

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    Well, he's going to be great for years....not just 1-2. I don't understand this argument at all. And, they'd have money to spend still. Just not a ton.

     

    That said, he's not coming here, because they'd never offer him what other teams will. Which is certainly defendable.

    I never said he wouldn't be great for years and I didn't mention any number of years so I don't understand your counterargument at all. And how much money would they have left if $35M a year was allocated to a single person? And would $3M even be enough to get him to Minnesota? I doubt it.

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    I never said he wouldn't be great for years and I didn't mention any number of years so I don't understand your counterargument at all. And how much money would they have left if $35M a year was allocated to a single person? And would $3M even be enough to get him to Minnesota? I doubt it.

     

    Your argument seemed to be they'd still have holes, this year.....which is true. If he's great for years to come, they should be able to fill those holes. If not, then it doesn't matter if they sign him or not, if they still have that many holes 2-3 years from now, this team will be bad. So maybe I didn't read your post correctly.

     

    They can afford as many players as they want, it depends on how much profit they want to make. Atlanta made 100 million last year, with a similar payroll and tv deal......so there is money to be spent if they want to. Would it be a massive percent paid to one player? Yes. Does that mean they can't find ways to make it work? Imo, no. But, I understand the counter argument, especially based on what they are likely to do, vs what they could do.

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    I'm going to go against the popular opinion here. I am in favor of signing LeMahieu.

     

    He has always been a better home hitter (show me what Rockies player hasn't), but he hasn't been awful away from Coors, except for an outlier season or two. Last year his average away from Coors was down, but his power was up. Is he changing things, buying into the power/launch angle rhetoric? The park factor drop off from Coors to Target field isn't as drastic as other places, especially when it comes to 2B, which is his greatest power threat. At the end of the day, he could be a nice top of the order addition, batting somewhere .290/.340/.410  and playing gold glove defense at 30 years old. 2B is flooded, maybe that will bring his price down? I'd love to see a breakdown vs. other available 2b, including Jorge Polanco if he moved over.

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    I'm going to go against the popular opinion here. I am in favor of signing LeMahieu.

     

    He has always been a better home hitter (show me what Rockies player hasn't), but he hasn't been awful away from Coors, except for an outlier season or two. Last year his average away from Coors was down, but his power was up. Is he changing things, buying into the power/launch angle rhetoric? The park factor drop off from Coors to Target field isn't as drastic as other places, especially when it comes to 2B, which is his greatest power threat. At the end of the day, he could be a nice top of the order addition, batting somewhere .290/.340/.410 and playing gold glove defense at 30 years old. 2B is flooded, maybe that will bring his price down? I'd love to see a breakdown vs. other available 2b, including Jorge Polanco if he moved over.

    He HAS been awful away from Coors.

    .673 lifetime OPS away from Coors, that's unacceptable from anyone but a catcher.

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