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"Now, if we could just find some offense." I’ve seen this evergreen sentiment regarding the Twins frustratingly up and down play since April. 2018 has been a season of irritation for Twins fans, characterized by an anemic offense, a bullpen which has been solid but ineffective in the most critical situations, and comical base-running on a daily basis.
Molitor won Manager of the Year in 2017 after a historically impressive second half from the Twins offense. Let’s reground ourselves in some of those numbers:
If we look at Molitor’s record as manager outside this sliver of a season, it’s pretty bleak.
It might seem like I’m cherry picking here by leaving out August-October of 2017. Two points to counter that argument: firstly, how often does your team offense click enough to lead every important offensive category as a team, over a two month stretch? Secondly, Molitor’s Twins teams do not have a consistent track record of being competitive.
This brings us to the really challenging aspects of evaluating team, organizations, and roles - culture and climate. It’s impossible to measure or begin to assess Molitor’s true impact on the Twins, because the nature of teams and organizations is that the problems and challenges they are attempting to overcome are adaptive, not technical. What we can do, is look at indicators of Molitor’s impact. The best place to start is on the field.
Matt Magill was called up to the Twins at the end of April. Since then, he’s put up solid numbers in limited relief work for the Twins, managing a K/9 of 8.04 and BB/9 of 1.29. While Magill’s 2.45 ERA doesn’t match his 3.92 FIP, he’s at worst, an average MLB reliever. Since being called up, Magill has made 15 further appearances for the Twins. Ryan Pressly and Addison Reed, have made 51 combined appearances in that time, with decreasing effectiveness. Molitor had a similar issue with Trevor Hildenberger in 2017, pitching him almost nightly until his effectiveness diminished. The Twins are not playing in one run games on a nightly basis, so why not spread out the work load more?
Another aspect of Molitor’s vaunted baseball mind was his technical skill as a base-runner. The Twins are not a base-stealing team in 2018, particularly with no Byron Buxton. They only have 25 stolen bases (league average is 39). They are however, second in pickoffs with 12, with only four other major league teams having more than 7. There is no excuse for being picked off regularly, particularly for a team who isn’t really trying to run in the first place.
The most popular counter argument to these ‘team issues’ is to ground them in individual player execution as opposed to managerial impact (particularly base running). This where I think Molitor has a higher degree of culpability than most. While he can’t make the players execute, if he can’t compel their performance towards competence, what is his use and roll? In the business world, the primary work of leaders is to manage through others, in this case, players and coaches. Sometimes the best performers are the worst teachers, and Molitor and his coaches seem to have had a challenging time compelling the 2018 Twins team towards consistent, high level execution.
This brings us to Lovullo, the current manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Lovullo has presided over his own turnaround in Phoenix, where he won 2017 NL MOY after reversing the Diamondbacks 69-93 record in 2016 to 93-69 in 2017. Currently, the 2018 Diamondback sit in first place at 45-34, in spite of franchise player Paul Goldschmidt getting off to a slow start and their number one starter, Robbie Ray, being sidelined for most of the season with an oblique strain.
Lovullo has quickly become known through major league baseball for embracing the analytical side of the game. While Molitor is often thought of as a great baseball mind, modern analytic trends tend to show up less in his decision making, such as a lineup constructed around Brian Dozier hitting leadoff and Joe Mauer hitting second in recent history (although the two recently flip-flopped positions).
More importantly, Lovullo has become known for a strong culture of clear and transparent communication with his players since taking on the role. Upon taking the job, Lovullo expressed some of his initial organizational goals ‘Establishing a culture of togetherness and family and unity was the most important thing to me’. The culture is not simply reflected in Lovullo’s own thoughts, but also those of his players. Zack Godley said of Lovullo ‘We just really enjoy playing for him. I think the trust he puts in us allows us to put the trust in him as well.’
While these reflections may sound like a trite, sports movie cliché, I think they are particularly important given the context of the Twins organization. The current Minnesota team has a core of talented young players. What’s typically true about young teams is that highs are higher and lows are lower. There is often a need for more intentional and vocal leadership on such teams. I find myself wondering increasingly if Lovullo was a better contextual fit with the Twins than Molitor was.
The final thought I have is a wondering. Over the last few seasons, the Twins have brought in several players whose strengths have fallen under the mantle of ‘clubhouse leader’. Matt Belisle is a perfect example of this. He has no business being on the Twins roster with Busenitz, Duffey, Curtiss, Bard, Moya, and Reed all offering more upside. If the Twins are in such dire need of clubhouse leadership then both their veteran players, and Molitor himself, have a lot to answer for.
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