Report from The Fort: Royce Lewis Tears ACL, Will Miss 2021 Season

Yes, we should definitely base our plans on a two game sample size.  If that's the metric we're using, we should immediately cut every hitter not named Nelson Cruz from our roster.

Well, I get the sentiment. And even the best hitters and pitchers and even Simmons could fail/flail at anytime. But when there is a history of that happening in general, the extra pressure certainly makes it more likely, and that was proven out once more by both Polanco and Arraez as we set the 18 game record. That short Polanco throw...... 

And I certainly hope it won't be just a 2 game sample size the next round.

I agree with you that the Twins SS depth is fine compared to the rest of the league, even without Lewis.

 

But I will caution that this Dodgers note is misleading since the Dodgers backup SS has been a supersub (Taylor) on a very position-flexible roster. Just because he is technically listed as an outfielder on their 40-man doesn't reduce his SS ability or the team's depth there -- I'm sure Miguel Sano was once technically listed as an outfielder on our 40-man too, it doesn't mean anything.

 

(Plus the Dodgers 3rd-string SS may more accurately be Kenosha, Wisconsin's own Gavin Lux, who was a top 5 prospect before last season and primarily a SS in the minors, while McKinstry was not. Lux is still an unproven commodity himself, of course!)

Chris Taylor is listed as the backup at shortstop, and as such, is not germane to this discussion, as I was discussing only who each team's third option would be.  In looking at the Dodger's depth chart, I assume Gavin Lux will be the starting second baseman; currently Muncy is listed as the starter at both first and second--if Muncy plays second, Bellinger is listed as the backup at first, which means Pollock becomes the starter in center, and Taylor the starter in left.  I generally avoided these kind of scenarios in my speculation, as I assume if both Seager and Taylor get hurt, the Dodgers are more likely to install McKinstry than call up an outfield prospect (according to Kiley McDaniel, the Dodgers only have 1 outfielder in their top 10 prospects--Andy Pages, who has never played above rookie ball).  Their other options, according to the 40 man, are DJ Peters (0 MLB experience, OPS'd .879 as a 24 year old in AAA in 2019), Luke Raley (0 MLB experience, only 33 games above AA, OPS'd .878 as a 25 year old in those 33 AAA games in 2019), and Zach Reks (0 MLB experience, OPS'd .901 as a 25 year old in AAA in 2019).

Even putting Lux at short might not be a great idea--sure he has the prospect pedigree, but in his small MLB sample size, he's been pretty bad; .655 OPS in 151 PA's, striking out 28.5% of the time, and posting a -21.4 UZR/150 in 321 innings at second base.  He was definitely young (debuted at 21), and so there's certainly reason for optimism, other than that his numbers offensively were notedly worse in 2020 than in 2019.  Maybe he was hurt last year, maybe he hadn't yet adjusted to the league adjusting to him, but I wouldn't feel great if I were the Dodgers about the prospect of Lux AND one of my AAAA outfielders in the lineup every day, which is what happens if Seager and Taylor are hurt.

Well, I get the sentiment. And even the best hitters and pitchers and even Simmons could fail/flail at anytime. But when there is a history of that happening in general, the extra pressure certainly makes it more likely, and that was proven out once more by both Polanco and Arraez as we set the 18 game record. That short Polanco throw...... 

 

And I certainly hope it won't be just a 2 game sample size the next round.

The Twins history of playoff failures pre-2017 has nothing whatsoever to do with Polanco or Arraez.  You can't hold Polanco accountable for 12 postseason losses he didn't appear in, or 13 in the case of Arraez.  Also, not for nothing, but before 2020 Polanco was 4/15 against the Yankees with 3 walks and 1 homer, so a slash line of .267/.389/.467/.856, with no errors.  Arraez, in the 2019 series against the Yankees was 5/11 with 4 doubles, so a slash line of .455/.455/.818/1.273, also with no errors.

While the 18 game streak is painful for us fans, we have to remember that it started in 2006, when Polanco was 13, and Arraez was 9.  It's not like the exact same core of players has made the playoffs 6 straight years, and been swept in 6 straight best of 5 series.

Thanks, I understand better now. The phrasing just made it sound like their overall depth was worse than it was.

 

Not quite -- Taylor doesn't have an everyday spot right now except as a roving "10th man". So if he and Seager were both hurt, it still only leaves SS as the open spot, although the remaining 7 projected starters may have to start more often. (If they decided to shift Muncy to 2B, they also have Edwin Rios to insert at 1B too -- the Pollock/Bellinger/Betts starting outfield could remain unchanged.)

For sure, being not super read in to the Dodgers roster, I was going purely off their Depth Chart at MLB.com, where moving Lux off second cascaded into having an open spot in the outfield.  A cursory glance at Rios' stats seems like they would much prefer to move Muncy to second and Rios to first, rather than McKinstry to short.  In that sense, I would say the Dodgers, like the Twins, are one of the few teams that could absorb injuries to two of their top three shortstops, and still be ok.

FWIW, a 321 inning sample of a defensive metric is going to be highly unreliable as to determining the degree of any defensive shortcomings. Note that Lux has a +26 Rdrs/yr in that same sample!

 

Lux is a very interesting guy -- I remembered him as a decent prospect a couple years ago, but I had overlooked how he skyrocketed to elite status after 2019 (70 FV at Fangraphs! and top 5 in every list). 28.5% K rate isn't that bad either in a league with a 23.4% K rate overall (especially in a guy's first 150 MLB PA), although I am sure the Dodgers expect him to improve.

 

I don't know if the Dodgers would align Lux at SS right now, but he's definitely worth keeping in the lineup to see what develops. Especially for the Dodgers, who have the luxury of a great roster around him and an almost guarantee of making the postseason regardless of how Lux performs.

For sure defensive metrics are suspect right now, it will be interesting to see how that normalizes over this year.  And given his young age, Lux absolutely can turn into a very valuable player.  My comments were more around if both Seager and Taylor were hurt, and Lux moved to short, the depth chart showed the dominos creating a hole in the outfield.  If Lux didn't pick it up, that would give the Dodgers a bottom 3 in their order of a not-performing Lux, a AAAA outfielder, and the pitcher--not exactly ideal for a team hoping to repeat as WS champs.

Clearly, the situation is not so desperate as all that, so thanks for the clarification!