Record Starting Contract on the Twins Docket Next?

I am actually shocked at the lack of interest in Chris Sale on this board. He hasn't been mentioned once.

Sure, he has only thrown 48 innings the last couple seasons combined, but they were still elite, true-ace level innings.

Calling Sale injury prone is a misnomer.  All his time missed was due to UCL surgery (common) and then three separate consecutive bone fractures (impact). Nothing in his history indicates soft-tissue concerns.

On top of that, there is a fair chance he is looking for a Rodon-like make-good contract.

1/25 may get it done with him. 

The only way I want any of these guys is on short term deal. They are all old and going to fall off a cliff. Offer 2-year 110 million dollars, I don't care how high the AAV is. What I  don't want is guys 35-38 years old pitching for 25-35 per year that are brutal and make it impossible to add players down the line.

Make them rich short term or move on. It is not worth giving major long term money to any ballplayer that is over the age of 30-32. Haven't we learned this by now.

19 hours ago, Linus said:

So our pitching acquisition strategy is: don’t spend money in free agency for elite pitching and don’t spend high draft picks on pitching. And we are confused why we end up with a pile of injury prone # 4 starters. 

And dont do extensions at market rate values for anyone mid-tier or above. 

Tends to narrow the field a bit.

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

I am actually shocked at the lack of interest in Chris Sale on this board. He hasn't been mentioned once.

Sure, he has only thrown 48 innings the last couple seasons combined, but they were still elite, true-ace level innings.

Calling Sale injury prone is a misnomer.  All his time missed was due to UCL surgery (common) and then three separate consecutive bone fractures (impact). Nothing in his history indicates soft-tissue concerns.

On top of that, there is a fair chance he is looking for a Rodon-like make-good contract.

1/25 may get it done with him. 

Ummm. Don't be shocked. There is no way 48 innings delivered across ELEVEN starts (aka 4 1/3 innings per start aka an unhealthy Chris Archer through a similar sample size) is elite. In his last season that was anything like full, Sale had an ERA over 4. There were indications he had some arm issues before Boston gave him the latest contract (the reason he pitched out of the 'pen in the '18 playoffs), and it blew up on them. Sale doesn't belong in the cream of anything until he proves it (probably on a Maeda-style contract); if the Twins go this route as their pitching move, it is just a slightly more upside version of Bundy/Archer/Happ/etc.

They have the money free now, and Rodón should be the main target. It will probably take something like 4 (plus maybe an option), and high 20s to low 30s. Frankly the Falvines need to break form, and talk early big money to get Rodón's attention, then sign him so they can get to work on other issues. If they wait, or if they give a "fair" offer (like the one to Yu Darvish), they will be left on the outside again, and likely have to fall back on a far lesser option.

None of it makes sense for this team. Correa or some “Ace”. It only makes sense for a small market team if they’re one or two players away. The Twins are at least 6 players away. Most on here are ready to pencil in Larnach, Kiriloff, Lee, Lewis et al on a minuscule sample size. On the other hand, most want to keep Kepler despite a substantial sample size indicating his decline. None of it is realistic. 

2 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Ummm. Don't be shocked. There is no way 48 innings delivered across ELEVEN starts (aka 4 1/3 innings per start aka an unhealthy Chris Archer through a similar sample size) is elite. In his last season that was anything like full, Sale had an ERA over 4. There were indications he had some arm issues before Boston gave him the latest contract (the reason he pitched out of the 'pen in the '18 playoffs), and it blew up on them. Sale doesn't belong in the cream of anything until he proves it (probably on a Maeda-style contract); if the Twins go this route as their pitching move, it is just a slightly more upside version of Bundy/Archer/Happ/etc.

They have the money free now, and Rodón should be the main target. It will probably take something like 4 (plus maybe an option), and high 20s to low 30s. Frankly the Falvines need to break form, and talk early big money to get Rodón's attention, then sign him so they can get to work on other issues. If they wait, or if they give a "fair" offer (like the one to Yu Darvish), they will be left on the outside again, and likely have to fall back on a far lesser option.

We will have to agree to disagree on Sale. I literally never look at ERA because that is about the team's performance when that pitcher is on the mound, not how well the pitcher pitched. His K%, BB%, K/BB, HR%, GB%, FIP, xFIP, dERA, DRA, SIERA, and Statcast metrics, all still look elite.

As for his IP/GS...that entirely has to do with him ramping up after injury, then getting injured again, but in fluke ways. None of it is arm issues. The reference you are making to arm issues is people speculating for a decade that his arm would break, but him routinely pitching 200 innings a season. UCL surgery comes for almost all pitchers at some point, even the workhorse that is Justin Verlander.

His upside is Carlos Rodon. Don't kid yourself.

But I do agree on Rodon. I'd rather just sign him as well. Sale would be a close second choice though, if he could be signed on a one year deal the way Rodon was in 2022. The falloff from there, for the contract risk/reward that would likely need to be signed, will probably not end up being worth it.

18 hours ago, Reptevia said:

None of it makes sense for this team. Correa or some “Ace”. It only makes sense for a small market team if they’re one or two players away. The Twins are at least 6 players away. Most on here are ready to pencil in Larnach, Kiriloff, Lee, Lewis et al on a minuscule sample size. On the other hand, most want to keep Kepler despite a substantial sample size indicating his decline. None of it is realistic. 

Twins aren't 6 players away if they're relatively healthy next season. We collapsed in the last 2 months of the season when we were down to Jake Cave and Mark Contreras starting in the OF, neither of who was one of our top 8 choices to play OF going into the season. We were starting 4th string catchers, had Arraez playing through injury, and basically just ran out of dudes. And there's a ton of people who are ready to move on from Kepler, because he's helpless against lefties, and made way too much weak contact into the shift.

If we re-sign Urshela (which I think would be smart) then we need a SS, a partner at catcher for Jeffers, and a righty hitting OF (whether we trade Kepler or not). That's 3 guys, not 6, and two can be platoon partners. Trade Kepler, sign Wil Myers. Add Vazquez to catch (lefty hitter to pair with Jeffers, and quality defender). Neither move costs much out of the $60M the twins likely have to spend, which give you room for a top end starter (with risk attached) and address SS, and probably enough room to add a RH reliever (the return of Trevor May?) as insurance in case Alcala can't get healthy/effective. Which is why it's worth having the conversation about adding to the top end of the rotation.

Unfortunately, I think we're going to miss on Correa and the other top SS, miss on Rodon (and the FO won't be willing to assume the risk on the other guys that could move the needle) and spend only 2/3 of the budget with a starter with less of a top end and bridge SS that will drive many of us crazy, along with Myers/Vazquez/May moves that elevate the floor but don't raise the ceiling.

16 hours ago, Minny505 said:

We will have to agree to disagree on Sale. I literally never look at ERA because that is about the team's performance when that pitcher is on the mound, not how well the pitcher pitched. His K%, BB%, K/BB, HR%, GB%, FIP, xFIP, dERA, DRA, SIERA, and Statcast metrics, all still look elite.

As for his IP/GS...that entirely has to do with him ramping up after injury, then getting injured again, but in fluke ways. None of it is arm issues. The reference you are making to arm issues is people speculating for a decade that his arm would break, but him routinely pitching 200 innings a season. UCL surgery comes for almost all pitchers at some point, even the workhorse that is Justin Verlander.

His upside is Carlos Rodon. Don't kid yourself.

But I do agree on Rodon. I'd rather just sign him as well. Sale would be a close second choice though, if he could be signed on a one year deal the way Rodon was in 2022. The falloff from there, for the contract risk/reward that would likely need to be signed, will probably not end up being worth it.

I guess we mostly disagree about his potential for next year. Sale was absolutely great (I follow the Red Sox secondarily to the Twins, and still get the e-Globe after living there a couple years), and at least one of his setbacks is a total fluke, but...  in 2018 he had a couple bouts of shoulder issues that put him on the DL, in 2019 the Red Sox were super careful about workload all season, but still had to shut him down (I think shoulder again?) in mid August. In 2020 it was the UCL surgery.

He's a tall (6' 6") dude who is REALLY skinny (180-ish), and the concerns about the stress he puts on his joints may not have been warranted in his 20s, but are potentially coming home to roost in his 30s.

I wouldn't mind signing him to a one year Maeda-like 'make good' contract. And I'd base it more on healthy availability than innings pitched, because I think his true future is as closer where he could use that electric stuff in short outings that wouldn't blow joint gaskets. (After the way he slammed the door on the Dodgers in 2018, I can only imagine a combo of Sale and Duran to end games; it would be freakin' awesome!) But I'd still want the big contract to go to Rodón.