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  • Ranking the Twins Most Needed IL Players


    Cody Pirkl

    The Twins Injured List continues to grow as the season rolls on as they’re now missing several important contributors who hopefully haven’t made their last marks on this 2022 Twins team. Some absences however weigh a bit heavier than others.

    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

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    It seems like there’s a new player added to the Injured List every other day as the Twins have found themselves filling out the daily lineup card with players we never imagined they’d be relying on. Outfield, catcher, pitchers of all roles, there’s nowhere the Twins haven’t felt the sting of injury. For them to get back on the right track, I’ve ranked the top 3 players in order of importance to how the Twins may wind up finishing their season.

    3. Trevor Larnach
    Larnach last played at the end of June before undergoing core muscle surgery that turned out to be the likely source of his struggles before hitting the IL. Before being limited by injury, Larnach was a solid contributor to the Twins in multiple ways. The slugging left-hander was about league average in March and April before exploding to the tune of a .333/.431/.646 line in May. He also graded out well in every defensive metric, as what he lacked in outfield range, he made up for in sure-handedness and an arm that had bullied teams out of trying for extra bases.

    What was originally a six-week timetable appears to have been pushed back to closer to 10 weeks with little updates along the way. The Twins are hoping Larnach can be back in early September for the stretch run which would be huge for the lineup. Any kind of return to form would result in Larnach taking playing time away from players such as Jake Cave and Tim Beckham. Larnach should also slot into the top 4-5 spots in the lineup with his patient approach and bat capable of some much-needed fireworks. He’s been lefty-proof in his career thus far, actually hitting southpaws better than righties which makes him an everyday player if Kyle Garlick doesn’t make his return this season.

    2. Ryan Jeffers
    Many complained about Jeffers’ bat, myself included, for much of the season. While he hasn’t lit the world on fire, it’s hard to deny that Jeffers has a superior glove to Gary Sanchez who’s played far too often since Jeffers went down. The former Yankee, a bat-first catcher, has given us a newfound appreciation for Jeffers’ modest offensive skills since he’s become the everyday catcher. Sanchez was 24% below the league average hitter in June, and a Drew Butera-esque 59% below in July. Not only is his defense not up to Jeffers’ standards, but the Twins have basically been giving away 3-4 free outs per game to their opponents from the catcher’s spot for over a month.

    Sandy Leon has begun eating into Gary’s playing time as he can at least provide stellar work behind the plate, but the Twins certainly would benefit from Jeffers return sooner rather than later. The floor of his framing work behind the plate and occasional hot streak sounds far superior to the current setup. It’s hopeful Jeffers returns towards the end of August and certainly for the stretch run in September.

    1. Bailey Ober
    The Twins had a fantastic trade deadline, there’s no disputing that. They had a significant amount of needs and addressed the most important ones in a market that many teams called difficult. One more filler-type starting pitcher certainly wouldn’t have hurt, however. The Twins are in an interesting spot with the rotation. Joe Ryan has begun to surpass previous career highs in innings pitched. It’s hard to expect more than four innings pitched from Bundy and Archer every time out, and there’s little to no help on the way in the minors aside from Devin Smeltzer. A lot will hinge not only on the rotation staying healthy, but on the duo of Bundy and Archer occasionally providing starts that give the Twins a chance to win, which is no sure thing.

    Having Ober back even under the premise that he’s a solid #4 starter would be a game changer for a Twins rotation that lacks any kind of depth. It’s unclear what Ober’s timeline is, but we’ve been told we can expect him back this season still at this point. Hopefully good news starts to emerge sooner rather than later, as the Twins could surely use one of their lone bright spots from the 2021 rotation.

    Admittedly this list is plenty interchangeable and there are several options not even listed here. Let's be honest, we have plenty of injured players to choose from! Do you agree with the order of the list? Do you think someone not listed here deserves to be at the top? Let us know below.

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    2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    He's throwing out 17% of baserunners but league average is 25%. If his CS% was league average he would have thrown out 3 additional baserunners.

    The league itself does a pretty good job limiting base stealing. Success rates while stealing have gone up since the 1980s but attempts are WAY down. Nobody attempts to steal unless they think they have an 80% chance of success. 

    Minnesota is exactly league average in stolen bases allowed by opponents with 0.5 stolen bases allowed per game

    MLB Stats - MLB Team Opponent Stolen Bases per Game | TeamRankings.com

    The Yankees lead with 0.3 stolen bases allowed per game and the Reds are the worst with 0.7. So, no it isn't possible that "teams run at will" on Ryan Jeffers. He doesn't throw that many out but teams are only sending their best base stealers against him.

    Thanks for the additional data.  Explains a lot.  My old eyes tell me he isn't great, but seems few catchers are and few teams are running.  Interesting.

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    3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    1) Maeda, Maeda, & Maeda …….experienced reliever for those tough 1 1/3 middle innings!! Playoff tough from Dodger years, former high leverage reliever, & leader on TWINS staff. Maeda or Jax to get 4 outs in a tough spot??? Point made.

    2) Larnach if he can get a month in prior to playoffs. Need more pop from our bench than Celistino & Beckham.

    3) WINDER. Not sure why the affinity for Ober other than just no confidence in Bundy. Understood. But if it’s just because he’s tall, Winder is more solid in 2022!!! 3.77 ERA vs. plus 4.00 for Ober but Winder has started 9 games, some in every month until August. Ober started 7 games and threw a total of 33.67 innings…..another Bundy/Archer inning eater. Winder can spot start or help from the pen.

    STAFF changes by Sept. 1 for playoff eligibility:

    Winder for Bundy

    Moran for Pagan (Pagan & Bundy are not the answer, period.)

    Smelzer for Megill (Length & experience)

    Maeda for Sands

    Maeda & Smelzer bring REAL depth and capabilities to get more than 3 outs in the middle of a game. 

    HUGE IMPROVEMENTS if they are healthy.

    Question?  It is unlikely Larnach, Ober, Maeda or Winder will be ready to be back by Sept. 1.  I am guessing that if they are injured they don't have to be on the active roster on Sept. 1 to be eligible for the playoffs.  Do they?

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    I by far miss Larnach the most. Without him, Tim Beckham is an everyday starter in the OF.

    Having Winder and/or Ober back would be a big help to the team. Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy do not belong in this team’s rotation.

    I also would like Jeffers back, but not as much as the other aforementioned players

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    Great piece! You have good choices, but personally, I’d want Larnach back on offense, then Ober, Winder, Maeda in any order. The Jeffers bat was starting to make a difference late, but Leon makes that loss much less with better defense than either Sanchez or Jeffers.

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    1 hour ago, roger said:

    Thanks for the additional data.  Explains a lot.  My old eyes tell me he isn't great, but seems few catchers are and few teams are running.  Interesting.

    If you follow that link the data goes back to 2007. Teams had 20% more stolen bases then than they do now. The data has been trending down for 20 years. 3400 steals leaguewide in 1999 and just 2200 last season.

    MLB Stolen Base League Totals | Baseball Almanac (baseball-almanac.com)

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    Right now, if this was Spring Training 2023, the Twins would have 12 names, nearly half-the-roster, vying for playing time come the beginning of the season.

    Four rotation arms in Maeda, Ober, Paddack and Dobnak,

    Would the bullpen need Stashak, Coulombe, Romero and Alcala? A couple of hard decisions here.

    Jeffers would be back as catcher. Lewis would be an infielder of note.

    Aand the Twins would field a whole new outfield of Garlick, Kirilloff and Larnach!

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    On 8/13/2022 at 11:14 AM, puckstopper1 said:

    What about Sano???    ???

    Sano will contribute in the post-season.  Laugh.  I don't care.  Baseball's a funny game.  Stuff happens every October that nobody saw coming.  You heard it hear first.

     

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    9 hours ago, Rosterman said:

    Right now, if this was Spring Training 2023, the Twins would have 12 names, nearly half-the-roster, vying for playing time come the beginning of the season.

    Four rotation arms in Maeda, Ober, Paddack and Dobnak,

    Would the bullpen need Stashak, Coulombe, Romero and Alcala? A couple of hard decisions here.

    Jeffers would be back as catcher. Lewis would be an infielder of note.

    Aand the Twins would field a whole new outfield of Garlick, Kirilloff and Larnach!

    They will have more players (hopefully) healthy, but not Paddack (probably more June-ish '23), and Lewis would have to be way ahead of schedule to be playing in the spring. Kirilloff's surgery is radical for a baseball player; he may be back at full strength or never play again. Dobnak hasn't had a healthy season in two years, so I'm not holding my breath. Twins also (possibly) lose Fulmer to FA, and I don't see either Bundy or Archer back (unless he wants to try bullpen work).

    A healthy Alcala probably makes the team, and I'm fine if Stashak, Coulombe, and Romero don't. Nobody is likely to claim them (Cotton and Smeltzer are probably better than all of them, and have both cleared waivers this season), and they can figure it out with the Saints or another organization.

    Pretty sure Byron will be in CF and Kepler in RF unless something radical happens (they are under contract) with Larnach front-runner for LF. Garlick is a nice role player, but if he is starting everyday this isn't a very good team.

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