Ranking the Twins’ Top 5 Relievers by Level of Trust

Duran!  Then fingers crossed.  This BP does not have another RP that deserves full trust.

Here is my ranking:

1, Duran

Interesting.  Personally, I have always liked Thielbar, so it is nice to see him get a shout out of sorts.  From what I have read here, others not so much.  Thornburg, for me, simply has too small a sample to allow me to trust him or not trust him.  4 appearances in low stress situations just isn't enough to know, but I like what we have seen so far.  The others are probably the best choices right now.  

My main fear is when you line those 5 up against true playoff caliber teams top 5 we just don't match up well.  Come September, if they are going strong and we are in first place, I will stand corrected, but right now it doesn't look like a championship top 5.  I wouldn't mind an addition (or 2?).  

Duran and Jax. The rest give me heart palpitations.

This shows we have 2 guys we trust plus another 2-3 at any given time that we trust. Unfortunately, this is constantly changing and doesn't give confidence for the playoffs or against top teams.

Joe Smith I still trust if he comes in to cleanup the inning. Pagan if he doesn't throw the cutter and can get strikes with his other pitches. Thielbar should be trustworthy...

I imagine the Twins are hoping for clarity over the next month on two rehabbing pitchers. Alcala and Maeda. If both of them are on track by the deadline, I could imagine the Twins only trading for one reliever max and focusing on a starter instead. Those two would slot in above Jax, which would be amazing.

57 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Duran and Jax. The rest give me heart palpitations.

I just dont know how Jax is doing it...Does not have great stuff..reminds me of Stashak...once he's seen a few times he's gonna get blasted... I have zero trust in any of our Bullpen..maybe Duran..a little bit..no lead is ever safe when we go to the pen

1. Duran

2. Winder

3. Balazovic

4.  Canterino

5. Woods Richardson

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Griffin actually does have some really good stuff if you believe in analytics like Stuff+. In fact he's ranked 23rd (128.2 Stuff+) in baseball by Stuff+, 1 spot above Duran (127.8 Stuff+).

Edit: sorry, I was on the wrong tab, that was from earlier this month. The numbers as of 6/26 are Jax 127.6 and Duran 128.8. So Jax is still right in the same wheelhouse as Duran. Duran is 21st in baseball and Jax is 26th of anyone who's thrown a pitch this season. If you limit to guys with at least 10 appearances they're 13th and 18th in baseball.

thanks for the data... i dont get to see many games...just remember watching Jax as a starter..I just like to see flame throwing relievers that miss bats..Jax certainly is not that. Top teams have Bullpen guys that miss bats...at least they have no problem when playing us !! HaHa

I've been screaming bullpen for years now. Falling on deaf Falvey ears apparently.

"Flamethrowers that miss bats"

Lol, that is the best way to describe what the top playoff teams have and we don't. It's  that simple Falvey.

48 minutes ago, Hondo said:

Duran is the only one who can be trusted. The rest can give up a 5 run lead with one pitch. Same thing every year they make the playoffs...always have enough offense, bullpen gives up the lead every time.

I am curious what "enough offense" constitutes, as we have scored 3 runs or less in approx. half our games this year.  Offensive capability, or actual runs scored?  

In season it is so easy to be reactionary to the small sample of relievers. Beyond strike out and walk rates it is hard to project forward. WPA is not a stat that projects forward. 

xFIP relies on strike out and walk rates. Duran stands out with an xFIP near 2. They really need another arm to go with Duran.

The best of the rest are in the low to mid 3s including Pagán, Jax and Duffey. Pagán and Duffey both have HR/FB rates well above career norms. That should regress. However they both have a history of giving up hard contact and a home run rate greater than league average so their xFIPs might be a little too promising. 

They might have someone in the roster that can join those three. Many of their relievers have a very small number of innings that no current data is helpful. Maybe Moran or Megill fits in that group. I would be shocked if Thornburg belonged with that group in the 3s. The last time he had an xFIP in that range was 2016. 

My current list goes

1. Duran (then a pretty big gap, then...)

2. Jax

3. Pagan

4. and 5. TBDs

The only top 5 list I'd put Thielbar (or Duffey) on right now is the DFA/Option list for who goes if better options come along. Caleb has had some moments, and you can't cherry-pick out innings where he gives up a grand slam after loading the bases, because it is not 'one bad pitch' but several bad pitches. Opponents have a .339 (!) on-base percentage against Thielbar, and his ERA is just under 6 (and not by accident). His ERA+ is 65, and his WAR is -.6 (and going down). The other day was one of his 'good' (as in no runs allowed) outings where he came in, filled the bases with terrible control, and escaped by the skin of his teeth (and a 3 pitch strikeout of Cron by Pagán). (Yes, Pagán has had control issues as well, but his are getting better, whereas Caleb's are not.)

I'd love to see Emilio pushed down to 5 here, and there are potential short-term in-house candidates to bolster the 'pen (especially if we can get Winder/Ober back healthy and/or Moran can figure out the control thing and/or Schulfer/Sisk can transition to the majors, and/or Thornburg keeps it up in tighter games), but in-house or trade, it would be great to add at least two solid names (or more) to this list.

I've said some mean things about Thielbar this year, but I looked at the underlying numbers and honestly he's mainly getting unlucky. His XWOBA is slightly improved from last year, Baseball Savant has it in the top quarter of the league. His main issue has been an increase in walks.

In the same vein, I hope to see the Twins stick with Jovani Moran. His walks are also too high, but he's so difficult to hit otherwise. I think he's got high leverage stuff if he can harness it.

At any rate, the Twins need to trade for another high leverage arm. If they make the playoffs, the bullpen should look something like:

Highest Leverage: Duran

Second Highest Leverage: [Trade]

Third Highest Leverage: Jax

Primary Lefty: Thielbar

Secondary Lefty: Moran

Best Performing of the Rest: ??? Cotton???

Second Best Performing of the Rest: ???

Long Relief: Smeltzer

1. Duran

2. Pagan - he's got the pitches and just has to perform consistently

3. Thielbar - for situations that include lh's

4. Jax - his pitching tells another story this year. I just can't get last year out of my mind. It appears that I may be wrong about him. Hope so.

5. Canterino - not sure what his injury is. If it's not much, his stuff is good enough for him to be another Duran this year if his arm allows.

Yes, we will trade for 2 relief pitchers at the trade deadline.

4 hours ago, Linus said:

Here is my ranking:

1, Duran

 

 

 

 

Man, I hear a lot of crickets on that post.    

Two questions:

1. What have been the relative stats of the Twins bullpen in the first half vs the second half over the past several seasons? (My sense is that they have consistently been better in the second half.)

2. How does that improvement (if I remembered correctly) compare with the league average? I would suspect that the league average in the second half is typically better than in the first half, since other teams are also jettisoning flotsam in the second half. 
 

Twins have Thornburg throwing a slider for the first time in his 9 season career. It's grading out pretty rad-like. If it's not just a shiny new toy that hitters start to pick up on, he could be a legit weapon. Especially if he drops that nonsense curveball that has had a negative run value every season since 2014. 

After today's game I think you might want to edit your essay and remove Emilio from the list.  Not sure who to put in, but Pagan is a disaster.  I guess you can give me Moran over Pagan, but I think it is difficult to get past three RP at this point.

Tiday is Exactly what will happen and take the heart out of ANY team when you parade this  bullpen out onto the field. 

Get two.good arms or leave Falvey.