Ranking the Most Improved AL Central Teams for 2023

Cleveland's pitching staff is still going to be tough to deal with....but I would agree that the Twins will have improved the most.  Much of this is based on the fact that the injury situation will be much better (can't be worse....right?)(right?)

Signing Correa was great, but it does not move the needle since he was with the team last year.  Losing Arraez and adding Gallo to the lineup is a negative.  Adding Lopez to the starting rotation is a big positive. Farmer is on the bench, Taylor is also on the bench, but could be an essential part of the team depending on injuries.  Trading Gio was a negative. 

Yes we win the Central, but are we good enough to match Byron's goal?  I hope so. 

On paper means nothing, on field results dictates everything.  Injuries will happen, how do the Twins respond?  Buxton's value is playing CF and not every other day DH role.  If he plays 80 games or less in the field, than we have problems.  We have plenty of guys to get DH at bats, so Buxton needs to be "the Man" in the OF they way everybody believe he is today.

Solid up the middle if Buxton, Correa and Polanco give us 120+ games in the field together.  We have a solid 2-man Catching tandem so I'm good there.  Farmer, Gordon, Gallo/Kepler off the bench depending on the days is a decent group.  Gordon has a chance to be a cornerstone guy for next couple years if he can replicate last year.

Team doesn't have to all hit for power to win games, unlike many who believe each guy needs to belt 20+ HR's.  Timely HR's are more effective.  Base hits, hit and run, Sb's, move the guys over, apply pressure on opposing teams defense wins games more often that a ooh-ahh 440' upper deck solo HR.  But, hey I'm an old school guy 

Pitching, still a little luke warm on BP and how many arms we will need to go innings 6-9 on a daily basis.  Rotation looks to be stable.

Let the games begin

I would say the most improved is actually Cleveland.  We added a starter, that could be best in the rotation, but took away the batting champ to do it.  Gallo is a lottery ticket that if he can get to what he was in Texas we will love it.  Really, we are just hoping we have health this year.  The new catcher may be the best upgrade for us. 

Cleveland really did not lose anything and added Bell.  He, like Gallo, is a bit of a lottery ticket.  When he is on, he carries teams. He is bad on defense so most likely will see most time at DH, but if he is hitting like he has shown, he will help carry that team.  The only reason I say Cleveland is most improved at this point, is they only really added and did not have to subtract to do it.  

I still think we will be fine as I think our prospects can fill holes left, and hopefully health is a little more on our side. 

Here is how is see the net of these moves.  Miranda replaces Urshela.  They were about the same last year but Miranda has more upside.  Vazquez replaces Sanchez which is a fairly significant improvement.  Farmer offers more than he is getting credit for because he hits LF pitching very well.  Used properly, he is a nice plus.  Alcala and Maeda coming back unknown but a lot of potential upside.  Pablo Lopez a big plus and Jorge Lopez probably a plus.  Mahle, assuming he is healthy, is a big plus. Taylor as a bench player is a modest plus.

Arraez's ABs will be primarily replaced by Kirilloff but also spread among Buxton / Miranda / Correa and perhaps Julien or Martin at some point.  I would call that a push with upside if Kirilloff performs the way we hope. 

Mahle / Lopez and Lopez instead of Bundy / Archer.  Kirilloff / Larnach / Alcala and Maeda back from injury.  Overall, this is a significantly better team than opening day 2022.

The AL Central gets some deserved trash talk, but there is going to be improvement from every ALC club this summer. The young players mentioned in the Detroit blurb are all talented and Baez is a ballplayer. Health is a factor for them too. Chicago has some supremely talented players headed by Robert Jr. and Moncada. Think duo Buxtons. Tim Anderson plays hard. Cease and Kopech are not favorable at bats. The White Sox have underperformed but may have made the single biggest change of any team in baseball when they removed the corpse of La Russa from the South Side. Grifol is awesome. The Royals are still building but Bobby Witt Jr. is a superstar. I will agree with those who believe that Cleveland was lucky to go through last season with so few injuries. They do have the best farm system, the best manager in baseball, and a corp of young guys who could actually improve. The Guardians will be tough. The Twins just need health to have a good year, but the depth acquired this offseason (Farmer, Taylor, P. Lopez, and Gallo) should be a huge help. The AL Central will not be the worst division in baseball any longer.

Pitching will be better through subtraction of Happ, Shoemaker, Archer, Chi Chi.  Big plus.

I think that we're a better team than last season. Whether or not that translates to wins, I don't know. The pitching staff alone should be significantly better. Injuries could derail everything, just like with any team. Losing Arraez will hurt. Getting Gallo might hurt too. Can Buxton make it through a full season? Will Miranda hold his own in both hitting and fielding? Will Polanco rebound? Will Kirilloff's wrist be ok? Still a lot of questions. I'm much more optimistic going into this season, than I was last season, but we'll see what happens. Bring on the games!

Too many "IF's" to project much of anything.

1) The starting rotation & the Bullpen should be better, but I'm not sold on either of the Lopez'es yet.

2) Buxton's health. Will this be the year??????

3) 1B - likely the key position in the lineup for this team.

Last year we didn't have anyone who could even play the position. (Frankly we havent had anyone since Morneua) Kiriloff having a healthy breakout year will be Hugh.

4) the gaping hole in LF since Rosario was let go. At least Gallo can play defense,  but if he hits 200 with 150K's , it will.still be a gaping hole.

5) Health

Ĺots to be excited about, including some recovering players & prospects,  but synergy is what this team needs most to happen. Can Rocco do it is the question?

Recipe for "Twins Success" cake. The oven was turned on preheat last week. It is warming up. It's almost time to mix the various ingredients, which have been accumulated this winter, and are on the counter, waiting to be measured and mixed.  The mixing should be slow and deliberate and the recipe should be followed. The baking temperature and the timing should be exact. While the cake bakes, we will all sing, "We're Gonna Win Twins". When the timer goes off in November, we will gently remove the cake from the oven, and we shall all sing, "We Are the Champions" and enjoy a piece of celebratory "Twins' Success" cake. 

I would rank the moves the Twins made to be the most impactful this season.  That said, were they enough to match up with the what the Guardians have from last year plus a few additions?.  IMO No, but time will tell.  I pick the Twins second in the ALC behind the Guardians.  I'll be delighted to be incorrect.

33 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Recipe for "Twins Success" cake. The oven was turned on preheat last week. It is warming up. It's almost time to mix the various ingredients, which have been accumulated this winter, and are on the counter, waiting to be measured and mixed.  The mixing should be slow and deliberate and the recipe should be followed. The baking temperature and the timing should be exact. While the cake bakes, we will all sing, "We're Gonna Win Twins". When the timer goes off in November, we will gently remove the cake from the oven, and we shall all sing, "We Are the Champions" and enjoy a piece of celebratory "Twins' Success" cake. 

It's every fans dream in the spring that we are destined for a world series ...

On paper we are much improved , lots of new faces since last year's deadline and throughout the off season  ...

Got to go out and play with a killer instinct  if buxtons dream is to be fulfilled  ...

Go twins ...

I think Bigfork is probably right although I am an optimist. I see Cleveland winning 87-92 games this year and the Twins more in the 84-89 range. The key will be better performance from BP pitchers other than Duran, and finding a real "middle of the order, consistently hit 3 or 4 and do it well" bat amongst those vying for playing time at 1B, 3B, LF and DH. And health. With this roster, we are in huge trouble if either Correa, Buxton, Ryan or Duran misses 2 months. We're dead if 2 or 3 of those guys miss significant time. 

Bottom line to me is that this team COULD truly contend for a title IF the stars stay healthy and play well, at least two of Miranda, Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff really step up and become quality hitters who can hit 3/4 and 6 on a contending team, one late inning guy emerges to back up Duran, and everybody else plays at least to their norm. That's a lot of IFs but a lot fewer than we had last year. That spells progress to me.     

Quote

Royals fans can pin their hopes on watching Zack Greinke join the 3,000 strikeout club with 108 Ks in 2023. 

Greinke didn't strike out 100 last year. It will probably take until 2024 for him to make it into that club.

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Signing Correa was great, but it does not move the needle since he was with the team last year.  Losing Arraez and adding Gallo to the lineup is a negative.  Adding Lopez to the starting rotation is a big positive. Farmer is on the bench, Taylor is also on the bench, but could be an essential part of the team depending on injuries.  Trading Gio was a negative. 

Yes we win the Central, but are we good enough to match Byron's goal?  I hope so. 

I hated trading Arraez since it seemed we could have signed a FA starter and kept Luis. After looking at how we have changed overall from the beginning of last year …..the exchanges we’ve made vs. last year’s club are Kirilof for Arraez, Miranda for Urshella, Gallo for Cave/Celestino/Garlick & Vasquez for Sanchez.

Kirilof - Polanco - Larnach - Buxton all hoping for better health than in ‘22.

PITCHING:López for Bundy, Mahle for Paddack, & Maeda for Archer

PEN, with Pagan in the 7 or 8 spot vs. 1 or 2 last year, this is a reality exchange. Others are López for Joe Smith, an experienced Moran for Duffy…..Megill, Jax, & Duran with experience all seem to be an upgrade.

AAA starters…..there are 3-4 guys that have pitched in the SHOW and will be ready if there are issues……much better than last year!! WINDER - OBER - VARLAND - SWR

Having a starting SS as our utility guy in Farmer & a Gold Glove back-up in the OF in Taylor is way better than guys we used in ‘22.

Gordon can play OF & he can hit, unknown going into ‘22.

JUST HAS TO BE A BETTER OUTLOOK THAN LAST YEAR…..don’t understand the reluctance in saying that? Farm has more guys that have or are maturing to come up if needed.

I'm forced to conclude that, despite the impressive improvements, the Twins will place 3rd behind both Cleveland and Chicago. What would vault them over one or both?

1) Start with health up the middle, especially Buxton, but also the catchers, but not excluding Polanco and Correa. While we have replacements, there's a steep falloff.

2) Just as important is production from the corners, defensively and offensively. So Kirilloff, Larnach, Kepler, Miranda, and eventually Lewis at 3B I hope. Gallo does little for me. I'm hopeful regarding the others, especially Larnach and Kirilloff, but including Kepler.

3)Help from the minor leagues will certainly be a wild card. We'll probably need all 5 starters at some point, and perhaps for lots of starts, and this might be a good thing in reality, who knows? My bet is on Josh Winder in particular. We'll need a couple-four relievers too. But at least we HAVE talent in AAA, which is more than CWS can say. Bad news: the Guardians are loaded with fine prospects.

4) Not relevant to this season, but I really like the off-season trades of Luis Arraez that brought us Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio may surprise. And the prospect we got for Gio (Alejandro Hidalgo) is probably a similar talent quality to Jovani Moran, or Ronny Henriquez even.

7 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It's every fans dream in the spring that we are destined for a world series ...

On paper we are much improved , lots of new faces since last year's deadline and throughout the off season  ...

Got to go out and play with a killer instinct  if buxtons dream is to be fulfilled  ...

Go twins ...

I agree Bly. Play each inning, each pitch, each practice, each meal, each night's sleep with the goal of victory in mind.

I think having Correa signed to a long-term deal is a big upgrade to him on a one-year deal, which is all last year was. I think he worked hard last year and was team-focused, but I think that's going to be even stronger this year. We've upgraded in numerous ways, as noted above. I'm going to miss Luis as a fan, but I don't think he's irreplaceable at all. Remember all the comments about where he might play? We've got guys in all those places.

No more bar altercations, please.

Healthy Twins mop up the floor with the AL Central.

Not quite a "hot take."

Lotsa pitching, and Buxton and Correa at the heart of the offense, I am optimistic.

Wait, is it spring yet?

While I am not quite on the bandwagon yet, I am trotting along side it so I can catch it if and when my fears subside.

I can't get on board yet, because I do not see the changes as an upgrade worthy of title proportions.  We upgraded at catcher, and added a good pitcher to a starting rotation that has too many questions for my comfort level.  Paddock out, Mahle and Gray seemingly on innings limits to keep them off the IL, and Maeda not having pitched since late '21 gives me pause.  We lost our 1 and 3 top hitters (please don't tell me BA doesn't matter) and added two outfielders who can play D, but fall short of the two hitters we lost.  And we added a wild card, in my extremely humble opinion, in Farmer, who can play multiple positions and can replace any injured infielder if the need arises.  That pretty much leaves young guys stepping up, key players staying healthy, and the BP being able to hold up better than last year with having to pitch way too many innings.  Optimistic?  Yup.  Overly confident?  Sorry, nope.  But I will gladly be wrong.

And, by the way, the one thing I will wonder about until we see it play out, is the balanced schedule this year.  Gone are the days of playing Detroit, KC, and Chicago 57 times a year.  It will be interesting to see how that affects the record as the year plays out.  Good example would be Ryan, who couldn't lose to Detroit if he was trying to throw the game, but struggling against better/more disciplined lineups throughout the league.  Time will tell how we do against more of the 2 leagues.  

I am ready to jump on board; I just need the team to give me the right push.  😎

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

I can't get on board yet, because I do not see the changes as an upgrade worthy of title proportions. 

We lost our 1 and 3 top hitters (please don't tell me BA doesn't matter)

If you define better as title worthy or likely to win the WS, you have a point.  However, that outlook would defy the fans of two-thirds of the teams in MLB on a yearly basis.  There are 30 teams competing for that title and some of them able to spend twice as much.  For me the shot at 90 wins is a lot better than being likely to lose 90.

Where batting average is concerned.  I won't tell you BA does not matter but BA is one relatively small indication of player value.  That's why stats like wRC+ and WAR were created.  Aaron Judge's average was a couple points below Arraez.  Yet, he his WAR was over 3X more than Arraez.  Judge's wRC+ was 76 points higher.   It makes absolutely no sense to value players as you have here based solely on BA.  

51 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If you define better as title worthy or likely to win the WS, you have a point.  However, that outlook would defy the fans of two-thirds of the teams in MLB on a yearly basis.  There are 30 teams competing for that title and some of them able to spend twice as much.  For me the shot at 90 wins is a lot better than being likely to lose 90.

Where batting average is concerned.  Aaron Judge's average was a couple points below Arraez.  Yet, he his WAR was over 3X more than Arraez.  Judge's wRC+ was 76 points higher.  Batting average is one relatively small indication of player value.  Therefore, It makes absolutely no sense to value players as you have here based solely on BA.

Win the WS?  No.  I was thinking more along the lines of competing for a spot in it come October; honestly competing, not getting swept by the first team we face.  At least being in the mix of contenders, and  I'm just not sure the improvements alone will get us there; guys staying healthy and playing up to their potential just might.

And I know I am old school, but BA still means more to me than WAR, because I have been given too many definitions of "replacement" to truly trust that stat.  I will take a pure hitter any day (which Judge appears to be as well) over analytically driven stats.  And the trade offs we made (again, just the trade offs, not the underlying potential this team has if it stays healthy and plays up to potential) don't appear to tilt the needle in a positive enough direction to get me on the wagon just yet.  But I am waiting for that push, and will gladly jump if I am wrong.  

17 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I hated trading Arraez since it seemed we could have signed a FA starter and kept Luis. After looking at how we have changed overall from the beginning of last year …..the exchanges we’ve made vs. last year’s club are Kirilof for Arraez, Miranda for Urshella, Gallo for Cave/Celestino/Garlick & Vasquez for Sanchez.

Kirilof - Polanco - Larnach - Buxton all hoping for better health than in ‘22.

PITCHING:López for Bundy, Mahle for Paddack, & Maeda for Archer

PEN, with Pagan in the 7 or 8 spot vs. 1 or 2 last year, this is a reality exchange. Others are López for Joe Smith, an experienced Moran for Duffy…..Megill, Jax, & Duran with experience all seem to be an upgrade.

AAA starters…..there are 3-4 guys that have pitched in the SHOW and will be ready if there are issues……much better than last year!! WINDER - OBER - VARLAND - SWR

Having a starting SS as our utility guy in Farmer & a Gold Glove back-up in the OF in Taylor is way better than guys we used in ‘22.

Gordon can play OF & he can hit, unknown going into ‘22.

JUST HAS TO BE A BETTER OUTLOOK THAN LAST YEAR…..don’t understand the reluctance in saying that? Farm has more guys that have or are maturing to come up if needed.

I want it to be better, but it will be only if health is better and holds up.  It is the big unknown and I cannot rank us above Cleveland until we see how the team holds up through the spring.  I hope we are, but if all things are equal I would not bet Baldelli against Francona.

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I want it to be better, but it will be only if health is better and holds up.  It is the big unknown and I cannot rank us above Cleveland until we see how the team holds up through the spring.  I hope we are, but if all things are equal I would not bet Baldelli against Francona.

Our STAFF is seriously stronger than it was going into last year!!! Not even close…..Bundy, Archer, J. Smith, Duffy, Paddack (4 starts) etc.

Do we have a perfect staff - NO.

Will everyone remain healthy - NO

We have depth and guys to take advantage of right/left splits. We have guys in Farmer & Taylor as back-ups v. Celestino & an IF I can’t remember.

Obviously, we need the players on paper to be able to play……same with 29 other teams.

Guardians BEST prospect, probable 4th/5th starter Espino(?) is out for a minimum of 2 months starting this morning.

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

While I am not quite on the bandwagon yet, I am trotting along side it so I can catch it if and when my fears subside.

I can't get on board yet, because I do not see the changes as an upgrade worthy of title proportions.  We upgraded at catcher, and added a good pitcher to a starting rotation that has too many questions for my comfort level.  Paddock out, Mahle and Gray seemingly on innings limits to keep them off the IL, and Maeda not having pitched since late '21 gives me pause.  We lost our 1 and 3 top hitters (please don't tell me BA doesn't matter) and added two outfielders who can play D, but fall short of the two hitters we lost.  And we added a wild card, in my extremely humble opinion, in Farmer, who can play multiple positions and can replace any injured infielder if the need arises.  That pretty much leaves young guys stepping up, key players staying healthy, and the BP being able to hold up better than last year with having to pitch way too many innings.  Optimistic?  Yup.  Overly confident?  Sorry, nope.  But I will gladly be wrong.

And, by the way, the one thing I will wonder about until we see it play out, is the balanced schedule this year.  Gone are the days of playing Detroit, KC, and Chicago 57 times a year.  It will be interesting to see how that affects the record as the year plays out.  Good example would be Ryan, who couldn't lose to Detroit if he was trying to throw the game, but struggling against better/more disciplined lineups throughout the league.  Time will tell how we do against more of the 2 leagues.  

I am ready to jump on board; I just need the team to give me the right push.  😎

I think you map things out well but I am more optimistic on the probable outcome for 2 primary reasons, both involving the pitching. First, I really think our starting pitching is substantially better than it was for most of last season. We have 6 starters who have shown that they can give you something approximating a quality start most times out. Lat year, we had 3 starters that you could like followed by 2 for whom one would be thrilled with 5 innings, 4 runs or better - and who rarely met that modest standard. I feel like now we have 6 starters who can win any time they start , plus at least 2 in the minors who could be close to that standard. We will gave a chance to win MOST every time out this year unless we lose 2 or 3 starters long term. That's a HUGE improvement over last year.   

The second is I think the bullpen is much deeper both at the major league and AAA level. Is it a top 5 or top 10 in baseball bullpen? Probably not. But I do think it's a top half of baseball. So we not only are more likely to get a good start every time out,. we are less likely to blow a lead with our bullpen. To me, that's also a Huge improvement. Nothing kills a baseball tam faster than blowing late inning leads. Just look at last year.  

I think the offense is a question mark and the infield defense is a work in process (the OF defense should be top 5). We need young hitters to step up and be able to competently fill the number 4 and/or 6 holes from the Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach and Gordon group (adding Lewis by July, maybe Wallner and Lee as well). I think there's at least a 50/50 chance of that happening. I'm thinking 85-90 wins, wild card, and winning at least one playoff series in the offing for 2023.   

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

First, I really think our starting pitching is substantially better than it was for most of last season. We have 6 starters who have shown that they can give you something approximating a quality start most times out.

 

I looked at Twins starters going back through 2010. Now I have PTSD.

It's been rare for the Twins to have even three good starters through a season. Our starting pitching is substantially better than the Twins have in, roughly, forever. We don't have a Johan Santana, true. We also don't appear to have anyone with an expectation for anything like the pitchers we've been using to start anywhere from 10-25 games a year.

It's really amazing looking back and seeing how many teams had guys with terrible ERAs and high numbers of starts. Examples:

Blackburn, 2010  5.42/26

Duensing, 2011  5.23/28

Blackburn, 2012  7.39/19

Hendriks, 2012  5.59/16

Walter, 2012  5.69/12

Pelfrey, 2013  5.19/20

Diamond, 2013  5.43/24

Hernandez, 2013  6.83/12

and on and on.

I'm looking forward to this rotation. Even with the obligatory usual injuries this looks like a really solid group.

9 hours ago, Mark G said:

That pretty much leaves young guys stepping up, key players staying healthy, and the BP being able to hold up better than last year with having to pitch way too many innings.  Optimistic?  Yup.  Overly confident?  Sorry, nope.  But I will gladly be wrong.

Do we know yet whether Rocco will use the same pitching strategy which focuses on 1-inning RP's?  I still think that is what burned out our pen last year and would love to see either the existing RP's go 2-3 innings or get a starter to the pen to do long relief.  These times when we would use our 1-inning guys 2-3 days in a row has to stop.

I'm not predicting World Series Champs.  You need to be the Astros, Dodgers, Mets, to have that kind of confidence.  But there is no question the Twins are better NOW than they were same time last season.  I've been very critical of our front office. (yup, my trade of Kepler for Frankie Montas looks REALLY good about now).   I think despite a very slow start (as usual) they finished with a great off season.  

I'm looking for a tremendous pennant race between the Twins, White Sox and Cleveland.  All the White Sox need is health.  Sound familiar?  They lost Abreu but what happens when they get healthy, productive seasons out of Luis Robert and Eloy Jim?  Chicago clearly won last off season and then injuries ruined them.  Tony&Rodney is right, a new manager will be very helpful.  The Guardians are the defending division champs and have the best pitching in the division and added power to their lineup.  It's their division until someone takes it from them.  The Twins had a GREAT offseason, but health more than anything else will determine success.  I just like the feeling I have for the coming season better than I have for awhile.  

This team is all about health.  Last season showed what the worst case scenario would look like, so in response they got a new trainer, shored up the depth, traded a hot piece of Batting Champ for a big improvement in the rotation, and let the bullpen ride.  Odds are we can't have lightening strike that often in the same locker room two years in a row, so we should get some regression to norms for some of these guys. But I've read the Book of Job, so I'm only hoping for a division crown, nothing more.